1. IMPERFECT COMPETITION IN THE CONTEXT OF AGM
WHY IMPERFECT COMPETITION?
REALISTIC ASSUMPTION FOR MANUFACTURING & SERVICES SECTORS
GAINS FROM ECONOMIES SCALE (Harry & Cox, 1986)

2. IMPERFECT COMPETITION IN GTAP
FRANÇOIS J. (1998, TECHNICAL PAPER 14)
ELBEHRI AZIZ & THOMAS HERTEL:“A Comparative Analysis of the EU-Morocco FTA vs. Multilateral Liberalization”; 2006.

3. ELBEHRI AZIZ & THOMAS HERTEL(2006)
RELATIVELY EASY TO INCLUDE IC IN RELEVANT EQUATIONS OF GTAP MODEL
DIFFICULT & INTENSIVE IN DATA AND CALIBRATION:
Cournot model by Herfindhal index
Cost Disadvantage Ratio (CDR) by gross plant-level sales

4. ELBEHRI AZIZ & THOMAS HERTEL(2006). MAIN CONCLUSIONS & FINDINGS
FTA
“Deteriorating tot”
Reduction of qo per firm in ind with high scale economies
Trade diversion
Increase unemployment of labour even with transfer from EU
MTA
“Lesser tot”
Positive scale effect in the qo
Trade creation
Decrease unemployment of labour even without transfer from EU

5. PRESENTATIONS
TRADE DIVERSION
TOT
PRODUCTIVITY
TRANSFERS

6. TRADE DIVERSION AND TRADE CREATION & DIVERSION IN THE CONTEXT OF AGM
IMPERFECT COMPETITION
TRADE DIVERSION AND TRADE CREATION & DIVERSION IN THE CONTEXT OF AGM
TEAM 1: WOJTEK & J.L.H

7. TRADE DIVERSION
DEFINITION: grossly, TD can be defined as the displacement of more competitive imports from ROW in favour of partner countries.
DIFFERENT MEASURES: compatibility index (Grav. Models); welfare analyses (AGE)--->Alloca. Effi.

8. DESIGN OF OUR EXPERIMENT
TWO MAIN SIMULATIONS: FTA & MTA
SAME CLOSURE
SYMMETRICAL SHOCKS:
FTA:100% REDUCTION IN TARIFF FROM MOROCCO TO EU
MTA: 100% REDUCTION IN TARIFF BETWEEN MOROCCO & ALL OTHER REGIONS
NON AGRICULTURAL & NON FOOD COMMODITIES

9. welfare contribution of Imports
FTA = 442
FTAw2 = 652
= :

10. MTAX Welfare Contribution

11. Mvt Decomposion Equation MKTPRICES (-21)
pms(i,r,s) = tm(i,s) + tms(i,r,s) + pcif(i,r,s);
Equation DPRICEIMP (-18)
pim(i,s) = sum(k,REG, MSHRS(i,k,s) * [pms(i,k,s)-ams(i,k,s)])
Equation IMPORTDEMAND
qxs(i,r,s) = -ams(i,r,s) + qim(i,s) - ESUBM(i) * [pms(i,r,s) - ams(i,r,s) - pim(i,s)];
Equation CONT_EV_qimisr
CNTqimisr(i,s,r) = MTAX(i,s,r)*[0.01*EVSCALFACT(r)]*[qxs(i,s,r) - pop(r)];
R031 TempCoeff
1 qxs
2 e1_ams 0
3 e1_qim
4 e1_ESUBM

12. Differences mvh FTA pms 1 MOR -12.19 2 EU -16.20 3 ROW -0.72 FTAw2 pms
pim= -18.6
pim= -19.2

13. Conclusions