1. Breaking group 1B
Some lessons for selecting and applying methods and models for constructing climate change scenarios
Participants of the side meeting 1b:
Carlos Nobre
M. Kumar
Aldo Fabris
Carolina Vera
Xianfu Lu
Anthony Chen
Mario Bidegain
Mario Caffera
Jorge Amador,
Gustavo Necco
Mario Nuñez (Chair)
Ines Camilloni (Rapporteur)

2. Although in a general context control climate simulations are able to reproduce some of the basic characteristics of the climate in the Latin America and the Caribbean, they still have some deficiencies in reproducing important aspects of key variables like precipitation.
It has been proved that dynamical downscaling provides better climate estimations when the seasonal cycle is reasonably represented by the global climate simulations.
It’s recommendable to rely scenarios on variables that work better in the different regions
Probabilistic scenarios based on multi-model ensembles can be a good approach for the region.
Use of incremental scenarios. For example in semi-arid and arid regions in which temperature changes drive evaporation, it is highly likely that the region will become drier if temperature increases besides any increase in rainfall

3. There is some concern in the capacity (computer and human resources) of the region in performing dynamical downscaling for preparing scenarios. It is important to strength the regional collaboration in this subject.
Need of a regional virtual center for RCM output distribution (dynamical downscaling)
Need of a regional workshop (co-organized by START/AIACC-WCRP/VAMOS-IAI) to discuss the methods for constructing climate change scenarios as well as the construction of the virtual data center.