1. Economic Market Analysis
Presentation
To the shadelands steering committee
July 13, 2018

2. Introduction Patrick O’Keeffe Gary Craft Doug Svensson, AICP
Special Advisor, Management Partners
Gary Craft
Principal, Craft Consulting Group
Doug Svensson, AICP
President, Applied Development Economics

3. Economic Strategic Plan Process
Present results of economic market analysis to stakeholder groups
Complete/finalize economic market analysis
Draft proposed policies
Return to Council for discussion on results of gap analysis and proposed policies

4. Today’s Agenda Demographics and Employment Sectors Discussion
Existing demographics
Commute patterns
Employment Trends
Real Estate Trends and Projections
Discussion
Retail and Lodging
Retail
Hotel
Broadband Infrastructure

5. Demographics/ Employment

6. Regional Context

7. Demographic Profile Older, Educated, Affluent Community
Education
Income
Age
% Age with bachelor’s or higher
% Population by Age Cohort
Median Household Income
Walnut Creek
East Bay
California
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey,

8. Commute Patterns

9. Place of Employment for Walnut Creek Residents

10. Origin of Workers Commuting to Jobs In Walnut Creek

11. Industry of Workers Commuting to Jobs In Walnut Creek

12. Economic Base Profile - 2018 (63,220 Jobs Distributed Over 19 Industry Sectors)

13. Employment Concentrated in Relatively Few Industries

14. Local Economy Outperforms Regional and State Economies Post-Recession

15. Modest Growth of Local Office Sector Expected Over Next Decade 2018-2028

16. Office
Gateway Centre
Mitchell Drive Shadelands

17. Average Space Utilization Varies by Type of Tenant, but is Shrinking
Source: GSA, Workplace Standards Benchmarking, March 6, 2012

18. Offices Going Vertical Rather Than Horizontal
Greater Occupant Density: The next generation of workspace will move away from dedicated offices and workstations. The current average occupancy density of square feet per person has been continually trending downwards.
Rentable space of 25,000 to 28,000 square feet per floor is considered average for office buildings.
The typical suburban office building contains an average of 135,710 square feet and is occupied by an average of 10 tenants mostly in structures of 1 to 10 stories in height.   
Source: Urban Land Institute, Pillars of Design, October 2011
Design Intelligence, The Office Building of the Future, October 2012
Institute of Real Estate Management (IREM), Trends in Office Building Operations, 2011

19. Discussion

20. Retail/ Lodging

21. Retail Supply and Demand

22. Retail Sales by District

23. Past and Projected Growth in Internet Sales

24. Local Market Projection with Low/High Internet Growth

25. Auto Dealerships
Auto Sales represent 28% of total retail sales in Walnut Creek, more than half of which comes from shoppers outside Walnut Creek
In the future, increased use of on-demand ride services, short term dealer rentals, and autonomous vehicles is projected to reduce the rate of private vehicle ownership.

26. Recent Hotel Performance in Walnut Creek

27. Existing and Projected Hotel Room Demand

28. Broadband

29. Broadband
Gigabit internet speed is becoming the standard for many business and institutional applications
Dark Fiber lines provide capacity for business connections
Many cities have developed fiber networks for both city and economic development benefits

30. Conclusion

31. Positive Job Growth Outlook (based on current economic conditions and Business As Usual)
Baseline projected employment growth of 8,379 net new jobs (838/year; 1.2% AAGR)
Source: Emsi QCEW Employees and Non-QCEW Employees

32. Opportunities for Business Expansion and Diversification
Economic Gardening
Cluster Development
New Business Formation
Target Industry Attraction

33. Shadelands
Greater range of allowable uses will help create a more vibrant, attractive work environment
Increased transportation services for employees helps the location complete with metro centers.
Market looking for at least 3-4 story buildings
Broadband with gigabit upload speeds would help mitigate locational disadvantages

34. Discussion