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Housing and strata market update August 2013. 2 Residential Real Estate Absolutely Underpins Australias Wealth Position Commercial Real Estate $0.7 Trillion.

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Presentation on theme: "Housing and strata market update August 2013. 2 Residential Real Estate Absolutely Underpins Australias Wealth Position Commercial Real Estate $0.7 Trillion."— Presentation transcript:

1 Housing and strata market update August 2013

2 2 Residential Real Estate Absolutely Underpins Australias Wealth Position Commercial Real Estate $0.7 Trillion Australian Listed Stocks $1.4 Trillion Commercial Real Estate $0.7 Trillion Commercial Real Estate $0.7 Trillion Residential Real Estate $4.9 Trillion Australian Superannuation $1.5 Trillion Australian Superannuation $1.58 Trillion (SMSF $496.2 Billion)

3 3 Residential Real Estate Absolutely Underpins Australias Wealth Position Commercial Real Estate $0.7 Trillion Australian Listed Stocks $1.4 Trillion Commercial Real Estate $0.7 Trillion Commercial Real Estate $0.7 Trillion Residential Real Estate $4.9 Trillion Australian Superannuation $1.5 Trillion Australian Superannuation $1.58 Trillion (SMSF $496.2 Billion) $78 Billion / 1.6%

4 4 The combined capital city index is showing a clear recovery trend on an annual basis Housing market conditions across the combined capital cities have been improving since May 2012 after a 7.7% peak to trough decline which lasted nineteen months. On a rolling quarterly basis, home values have increased over 10 of the past 12 months and values across the eight capital city aggregate are 4.9% higher than a year ago. Source: rpdata - Rismark Annual and quarterly change in capital city home values Annual change Quarterly change

5 5 All capital cities except for Hobart have recorded an increase in home values over the past 12 months Combined capital city home values have increased by 4.9% over the past 12 months. Perth (8.3%) and Sydney (6.5%) have been the stand-out markets for capital gains over the year. Hobart (-0.4%) is the only capital city to have recorded a fall in values over the year however, growth has been limited in Brisbane (0.8%), Adelaide (1.1%) and more recently in Darwin (1.7%). Annual change in capital city dwelling values Source: rpdata - Rismark

6 6 Capital city home values have increased by 2.3% over the three months to July 2013 Combined capital city home values have lifted by 2.3% over the three months to July 2013. Over the three months, values have increased in each city except for Adelaide (-3.1%), Darwin (-0.9%) and Brisbane (-0.7%). Perth (4.4%) and Sydney (3.7%) have been the standout performers over the period. Change in capital city dwelling values, 3 months to July 2013 Source: rpdata - Rismark

7 7 The recent growth in home values has seen three capital cities eclipse their previous peaks Across the combined capital cities, home values at the end of July 2013 were -1.3% lower than their previous peak of October 2010. Home values in Brisbane (-10.8%), Hobart (-9.8%) and Darwin (-9.2%) still have a long way to go before recording a technical recovery. Change in home values from their previous peak – to July 2013 Source: rpdata - Rismark

8 8 Hobart was the only capital city to record a fall in home values over the past year Home values have fallen by -0.4% over the last 12 months. Home values increased by 0.9% in July 2013 and have increased by 2.0% over the three months to July 2013. Values of houses are unchanged over the last 12 months while the unit market saw values fall by -4.7%. Source: rpdata - Rismark Annual change, Hobart Quarterly change, Hobart Annual change, Combined capitals Annual and quarterly change in Hobart home values

9 9 Annual change in home values across regional Tasmanian areas Source: rpdata - Rismark 10% plus 5% to 10% 0% to 5% -5% to 0% -5% or less Note: capital city values are up to July 2013 whereas all other markets are to June 2013. 5 yr figure is the 5 yr average annual change and from peak indicates the change from the market peak, if 0.0% it means values are currently at their record high.

10 10 Hobart sales activity is moving higher from a very low base Based on current estimates by RP Data, Hobart recorded 919 house sales and 268 unit sales over the three months to May 2013. House sales over the three months to May 2013 are estimated to be 37.3% higher than at the same time last year. Across the unit market, it is estimated sales activity over the three months is 39.8% higher than in 2012. Source: rpdata Note: the last eight months of sales volumes are modelled based on historic levels of revision Monthly number of house sales - Hobart Monthly number of units sales - Hobart

11 11 Vendors offering greater discounts in order to make a sale The rate of vendor discounting across Hobart moved lower in June to be recorded at -10.7% (compared with - 10.1% a year prior). Average selling time has improved from the seasonal highs recorded earlier in the year but remains elevated at 80 days. Despite the high reading, selling time is faster than a year ago (99 days). The deterioration in vendor discounting at a time when homes are selling faster suggests that vendors are becoming more willing to lower their price expectations in order to make a sale. Source: rpdata Note: the last eight months of sales volumes are modelled based on historic levels of revision Average vendor discount, Hobart Average number of days on market, Hobart Combined capitals benchmark

12 12 Rental conditions remain relatively flat in Hobart The median asking rent on a Hobart house has increased by 0.6% over the past twelve months while unit rents are down 2.0% over the year. Gross rental yields have seen a modest improvement over the past year, up from 5.1% to 5.2%. Gross rental yields in Hobart are now well above the capital city average. Annual and quarterly change in Hobart home values Source: rpdata - Rismark

13 13 Rental conditions remain relatively flat in Hobart The median asking rent on a Hobart house has increased by 0.6% over the past twelve months while unit rents are down 2.0% over the year. Gross rental yields have seen a modest improvement over the past year, up from 5.1% to 5.2%. Gross rental yields in Hobart are now well above the capital city average. Annual and quarterly change in Hobart home values Gross yield: Houses Gross yield: Units Source: rpdata - Rismark

14 14 1.98 million apartments and townhomes nationally Source: rpdata, ABS Census

15 15 1.98 million apartments and townhomes nationally 24,845 or 1.3% of them are in Tasmania Source: rpdata, ABS Census

16 16 The potential depth of the Tasmanian strata management market is roughly comparable with the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory Source: rpdata, ABS Census Total number of semi-detached and apartments within each state

17 17 +14% over past decade +28% over past decade +26% over past decade The number of medium density dwellings are growing at much faster rate than detached dwelling numbers Source: rpdata, ABS Census

18 18 +14% over past decade +28% over past decade +26% over past decade +10% over past decade +12% over past decade +24% over past decade The number of medium density dwellings are growing at much faster rate than detached dwelling numbers The same is true in Tasmania but not to quite the same extent, particularly for semi-attached dwellings. Source: rpdata, ABS Census

19 19 Where are the largest strata markets and where is the opportunity? Total number of medium to high density dwellings by council region Change in total number of medium to high density dwellings by council region Hobart has the largest number of medium and high density dwellings at 6,573, followed by Launceston and Glenorchy (4,567 and 3,895). Hobart has also shown the greatest level of opportunity for new business over the past decade with 424 more medium to high density dwellings compared with the 2001 Census. Clarence (289), Brighton (263) and Kingborough (221) have also shown a comparatively large increase in medium to high density dwellings. Source: rpdata, ABS Census

20 20 Number of apartment projects in the planning stage, National Wheres the pipeline? Based on data from Cordells to April this year, a record number of new apartment developments are currently in the Planning stage. Source: rpdata, Cordell

21 21 Number of apartment projects in the planning stage, National Wheres the pipeline? Based on data from Cordells to April this year, a record number of new apartment developments are currently in the Planning stage nationally. Most are in Victoria, however the value of new projects in planning is highest in Queensland. Tasmania is punching below its weight, attracting just 0.2% of the total number of planned apartment projects and 0.3% of the value. # $ Source: rpdata, Cordell

22 22 Factors driving take up of strata product Affordability Across every city unit prices tend to be significantly more affordable than house prices. Difference between median house and unit selling prices – 3 months to Jul-13 Source: rpdata -Rismark

23 23 Factors driving take up of strata product Investment return The yield profile for investors is generally substantially higher for unit stock compared with detached housing. Gross rental yield, houses versus units Source: rpdata -Rismark

24 24 Age cohorts, % of Tasmanian population 2001 versus 2011 33% (almost 35,000) more residents aged 55+ over past decade [Total population growth over decade was 7.0%] Factors driving take up of strata product Downsizing Changing lifestyle preferences across different age cohorts of the population Source: rpdata, ABS Census

25 25 Age cohorts, % of Tasmanian population 2001 versus 2011 33% (almost 35,000) more residents aged 55+ over past decade [Total population growth over decade was 7.0%] Factors driving take up of strata product Downsizing Changing lifestyle preferences across different age cohorts of the population Population change by age cohort, Tasmania 2001 to 2011 Source: rpdata, ABS Census

26 26 Factors driving take up of strata product Higher rate of natural increase More families means more demand for housing at a time when affordability pressures remain strong. Rate of natural increase, National Source: rpdata, ABS

27 27 Factors driving take up of strata product Higher rate of natural increase More families means more demand for housing at a time when affordability pressures remain strong. Rate of natural increase, National Source: rpdata, ABS Rate of natural increase, Tasmania

28 28 Factors driving take up of strata product Higher rate of natural increase More families means more demand for housing at a time when affordability pressures remain strong. Rate of natural increase, National Source: rpdata, ABS Components of population growth, Tasmania (qtrly change)

29 29 Detailed statistics for selected council regions The rpdata Advantage

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36 36 About Us RP Data is 100% owned by CoreLogic which is a leading provider of consumer, financial and property information, analytics and services to business and government. The company combines public, contributory and proprietary data to develop predictive decision analytics and provide business services that bring dynamic insight and transparency to the markets it serves. Today, CoreLogic has more than 6,000 employees globally with 2012 revenues of $1.6 billion and is listed on the NYSE. At RP Data, we continually collect, manage and process property-based data and imagery from over 300 sources across Australia including government agencies, media partners and industry professionals. RP Data is the biggest provider of property information, analytics and risk management services in Australia and New Zealand with a database of 210 million property records. RP Data serves customers ranging from real estate agents and consumers to banks, mortgage brokers, financial planners and governments. We understand that data is most useful when its presented as relevant and actionable analytics. Our data provides customers with insights that realise more market opportunities, while simultaneously growing businesses and managing risk. Our results speak for themselves; were helping over 100,000 end users including approximately 45,000 real estate agents win more business by providing Australias most trusted pre-listings comparative market appraisal (CMA) report, as well as industry standard tools that promote transparency and confidence when buying and selling property. In addition, 1 million consumers use RP Data to make important decisions about property they are about to hold, sell or purchase. Our Mortgage Platforms cover more than 90% of the mortgage lending activity in Australia. We estimate the value of every residential property in Australia each week via our automated valuation models which support our industry leading RP Data Rismark Daily Home Value Index. On average, we issue over 30 million automated valuation assessments every month. Were Australias leading source for mobile property information too – with over 500,000 mobile devices accessing our services each month. Using public and proprietary data, we bring insight and transparency to the Australian property market. We employ 330 people at ten locations in Australia and New Zealand and our revenue for 2012 was over $70 million. For more information call 1300 734 318

37 37 In compiling this publication, RP Data has relied upon information supplied by a number of external sources. The publication is supplied on the basis that while the RP Data believes all the information in it is deemed reliable at the time of publication, it does not warrant its accuracy or completeness and to the full extent allowed by law excludes liability in contract, tort or otherwise, for any loss or damage sustained by subscribers, or by any other person or body corporate arising from or in connection with the supply or use of the whole or any part of the information in this publication through any cause whatsoever and limits any liability it may have to the amount paid to RP Data for the supply of such information. This data cannot be reproduced without the permission of RP Data. Queensland Data © The State of Queensland (Department of Environment and Resource Management) 2012. Based on data provided with the permission of the Department of Natural Resources and Mines: [QVAS 2012)]. The Department of Environment and Resource Management makes no representations or warranties about accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability of the data for any particular purpose and disclaims all responsibility and all liability (including without limitation, liability in negligence) for all expenses, losses and damages (including indirect or consequential damage) and costs which might be incurred as a result of the data being inaccurate or incomplete in any way and for any reason. South Australian Data This information is based on data supplied by the South Australian Government and is published by permission. The South Australian Government does not accept any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the published information or suitability for any purpose of the published information or the underlying data. New South Wales Data Contains property sales information provided under licence from the Land and Property Information (LPI). RP Data is authorised as a Property Sales Information provider by the LPI. Victorian Data To the extent that this report has been developed using information owned by the State of Victoria, the State of Victoria owns the copyright in the Property Sales Data which constitutes the basis of this report and reproduction of that data in any way without the consent of the State of Victoria will constitute a breach of the Copyright Act 1968 (Cth). The State of Victoria does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report and any person using or relying upon such information does so on the basis that the State of Victoria accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any errors, faults, defects or omissions in the information supplied. Western Australian Data Based on information provided by and with the permission of the Western Australian Land Information Authority (2012) trading as Landgate. Australian Capital Territory Data The Territory Data is the property of the Australian Capital Territory. No part of it may in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, microcopying, photocopying, recording or otherwise) be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted without prior written permission. Enquiries should be directed to: Director, Customer Services ACT Planning and Land Authority GPO Box 1908 Canberra ACT 2601. Tasmanian Data This product incorporates data that is copyright owned by the Crown in Right of Tasmania. The data has been used in the product with the permission of the Crown in Right of Tasmania. The Crown in Right of Tasmania and its employees and agents: a) give no warranty regarding the data's accuracy, completeness, currency or suitability for any particular purpose; and b) do not accept liability howsoever arising, including but not limited to negligence for any loss resulting from the use of or reliance upon the data. Base data from the LIST © State of Tasmania http://www.thelist.tas.gov.au

38 38 Its about tangible results for property professionals everyday.


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