1. Fire research is about people... and so is economics inFIRE Conference Presentation Dr Ganesh Nana Chief Economist BERL 01 March 2012

2. inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012 slide 2 Agenda introduction question overview of some research examples review

3. inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012 slide 3 NZFS Commission statutory duty *promote fire safety *better work practices *effective rural fire management Contestable Research Fund (CRF) *supports research into better methods and practices of fire safety

4. inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012 slide 4 BERL independent private business and economic consultancy have undertaken CRF research related to *promoting fire safety *improving NZFS operations *establishing costs of fires

5. inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012 slide 5 Research Methods quantitative *statistics, regressions, modelling practical *interviews, case studies, recommendations strategic *review and analysis of public policy, strategies, regulations and legislation theoretical *literature reviews, metadata analysis Is this a useful division for fire research?

6. inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012 slide 6 To promote fire safety e.g. alcohol and fire research Approach literature scan – what is happening elsewhere? consult – what are others doing? assess recommend

7. inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012 slide 7 Living research e.g. alcohol and fire US – alcohol impairment contributing factor in home fire deaths UK – unintentional dwelling fires identified alcohol and intoxication as a risk factor Scotland – the Fire and Rescue Service recognised alcohol as a major social problem NZ – drinking patterns a major problem AND many agencies sending messages aimed at reducing alcohol harm don't drink and fry video

8. inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012 slide 8 Outcome e.g. alcohol and fire Recommend NZFS consider its messages and efforts/role in areas technical *smoke detectors, alarms, built environment environmental *when fire occurs, in what setting, causes behavioural *education, advertising, government policy

9. inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012 slide 9 To promote fire safety e.g. the influence of demographics Approach review issues and establish questions to be addressed extract data – NZFS and Statistics NZ - what can data tell us, and what does it not tell us? assess, analyse and evaluate select case study areas for closer inspection confirm findings

10. inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012 slide 10 Living research e.g. the influence of demographics group rather than single factor regression (data) analysis *increase – density, gas as fuel, qualifications *decrease – separate dwellings, age (45-64) case studies

11. inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012 slide 11 Outcome e.g. the influence of demographics Recommend NZFS tailor fire safety messages considering impacts of urban v rural population growth increasing urban density apartments v separate dwellings gas as heating fuel age and qualification characteristics of popn

12. inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012 slide 12 To improve NZFS operations e.g. composite performance measure Approach review – what happens now? consult – what performance needs measurement? extract and analyse data – what can data tell us, and what does it not tell us? construct additional measures propose

13. inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012 slide 13 Living research e.g. composite performance measure performance of NZFS assessed on outcomes state of capability and readiness not incorporated in current performance measures

14. inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012 slide 14 Outcome e.g. composite performance measure NZFS consider modified composite performance measure *to combine measures of outputs measures and of capability and readiness *is critical if appropriate level of capability and readiness is to be encouraged (and funded)

15. inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012 slide 15 To improve NZFS operations e.g. metadata analysis of CRF studies Approach establish assessment framework categorise studies and links to CRF purpose identify links to NZFS strategic priority areas and operational responsibilities investigate outcomes of studies determine contribution of CRF

16. inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012 slide 16 Living research e.g. metadata analysis of CRF studies over 100 research projects between 1998-2010 common themes recurring through the years clear alignment *with CRF purpose *with NZFS strategic priority areas *with NZFS operation responsibilities

17. inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012 slide 17 Outcome e.g. metadata analysis of CRF studies evidence that NZFS use CRF studies to improve fire outcomes

18. inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012 slide 18 To establish costs of fires e.g. costs of industrial fires Approach literature scan – what is happening elsewhere? agree costing method extract data – NZFS and Insurance Council data construct estimation model and populate report results

19. inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012 slide 19 Living research e.g. costs of industrial fires impact on business activity *direct economic interruption *indirect impact on suppliers *effect on wider community impact on fire service *cost of operational readiness

20. inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012 slide 20 Outcome e.g. costs of industrial fires evidence that improving fire outcomes closely related to operational readiness of NZFS

21. inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012 slide 21 To establish costs of fires e.g. value of statistical life (VoSL) Approach literature scan – what is happening elsewhere? explore costing options devise survey questions undertake survey and assess responses impute VoSL from responses report results

22. inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012 slide 22 Living research e.g. value of statistical life (VoSL) is VoSL from fire event different VoSL from road accident event? perceptions of risk and of personal control lie at heart of different values

23. inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012 slide 23 Outcome e.g. value of statistical life (VoSL) NZFS consider adopting appropriate VoSL for Regulatory Impact Statements and relative assessments

24. inFIRE Conference – 01 March 2012 slide 24 Quantitative, Practical, Theoretical or Strategic? ProjectAreaQPST alcohol and firepromote fire safety demographicspromote fire safety comp perf measure improve operations metadataimprove operations VoSLfire costs industrial firesfire costs