1. The Cook Islands limited experience applying impacts assessment methodologies
Pasha Carruthers
Research Officer
PICCAP Program,
Environment Service
June 2001
This

2. Cook Islands Experience
Methods applied limited mainly to analogues, expert judgment,brainstorming
Not Tested
Why so limited?
Relevance to scale
Capacity and Technology
Poor understanding of other methods
Future impact assessment methods?

3. Cook Islands Island micro-state Latitude 9-22°S Longitude 157-166°W
limited land size (240 sq km)
small population size (16,000?)
limited natural resources
external economic and physical impacts important
geographic diversity with both high and low islands

4. Socio-economic elements
Tourism
Pearls
Commercial and Subsistence Seafood
Coastal Flood Plain Agriculture
The coastal zone provides a wealth of beauty and is an essential element in the development of tourism for the Cook Islands. Although we do not have many Japanese or asian tourists, the sector is booming. Tourism has increased by 30% for the past 2 years, representing around 40 percent of GDP. New hotels and motels along the coast are constantly being built, but there is now talk about halting further growth in this sector because the island cannnot cope with the influx.
The pearl culture industry is the second most important economic sector, although only two atoll islands (manihiki and penryhn) participate. Development of the black pearl industry complements the older mother of pearl shell exports. Pearl health is highly dependent on lagoon salinity, temperature, and currents
Coastal and pelagic fisheriesare important to the hospitality/restaurant tourism as well as subsistence. Ciguatera fish poisoninig, believed to stem from poor reef health is a concern
Agriculture in the coastal floodplains produces pawpaws and mangoes for export. Formerly large banana and pinapple industries have halted because of competition from South America and climate factors, erosion, cyclone damage

5. Activities
Signatory to UNFCCC 1992
needed to produce “The Initial National Communication”
PICCAP - Pacific Islands Climate Change Assistance Programme: 1997
Implemented by SPREP (South Pacific Regional Environment Programme)
Assist countries to meet their obligations under the Convention
Provides technical assistance, training, capacity building
Funding of Co-ordinators and in-country activities
Country Team Approach
V&A Course
Expected to integrate emphasis on model scenario generation - PACCLIM
Instead focus on:
expanding the V&A statement to enhance full representation of the country
qualitative baselines
public awareness

6. Cook Islands Exposure Sectors
As Identified by Country Team Matrices
Agriculture: crop yields, harvest times, crop viablity, land loss
Coastal: shoreline erosion and landloss
Health: increased vector borne diseases, disaster risk, skin sepsis
Water resources: saltwater intrusion, physical damage to infrastructure, drought

7. 12/2/2018

8. Field Research Challenges Focal point established
Overview of the island
Meetings with government officials, community leaders
Informal discussions
School and Media Presentations
Qualitative observations including anecdotal evidence
Trust
Limited time
Presenting complex material
Getting relevant input
Recording feedback
Verifying anecdotes
Quantifying observations and uncertainties

9. Models and Decisions IAM still more theory than practice
MAGICC, IMAGE & others have benefits but time consuming to run meaningful(?) simulations
In truth demonstration tool produced at great expense has had limited applicability
not simple, too many errors, closed programs
useful application at the decision maker level requires a motivator and a greater level of completeness.
Better as a training tool, for identifying cross sectoral considerations

10. PACCLIM Outputs

11. Future Directions Open Structure Models, focused data collection
Access to national and international technical expertise
Improve results obtained from simple methods, interview skills, checklists
Reporting Important
Risk Management and coping ability
Integrated management plans
Implementation through policy, National Implementation Strategy
Public & Education Awareness
Continued lobbying for mitigation and adaptation assistance

12. Levels to Cook Islands V&A Assessments
Global
Regional
Level 1
GEF
UNDP
APN
SPREP
PICCAP
Geography
Community
Environmental Health
Baseline Data Available
Resilience
Economic Cost
of Climate Change
Suitable Adaptation Options
Local Decision Makers
Tradition
Public Awareness of Climate Issues
Sustainability
Research Capacity
Island Councils
Country Team
PICCAP Project
Environment Service
Government
Level 2
Level 3
Country Specific
Island Specific
Models
Levels to Cook Islands V&A Assessments
SURVAS
National
Communications