1. Prepare a Forecast Briefing
Principles of Cost Analysis and Management
Show Slide #1: Prepare a Forecast Briefing
References: Handouts, Excel Spreadsheets
Facilitator Material: Each primary facilitator should possess a lesson plan and slide deck.
Learner Material: Learners should possess standard classroom supplies.
Facilitator Actions: 0
Testing Requirements/Assessment: Learners will be assessed using Form 1009s, the speaking and presentation rubric, for this briefing event. This is a GO-NOGO event

2. What Makes a Good AAR Brief?
What does your Senior Leader want to know?
How should you present the information?
What are your presentation pet peeves?
What should you avoid?
Show Slide #2: Concrete Experience (What does it mean)
Facilitator’s Note: (Concrete Experience 5 minutes) Present students the slide questions Ask students what their thoughts are on “What makes a good AAR brief”
Facilitator’s Note: (Publish and Process 5 minutes) The critical portion of this part of the ELM process is to force the students to reflect. Ask a series of thought influencing questions, for example: What does your Senior Leader want to know?
How should you present the information? What are your presentation pet peeves? What should you avoid?

3. Terminal Learning Objective
Action: Prepare a Forecast Briefing
Condition: FM Leaders in a classroom environment working as a member of a small group, using doctrinal and administrative publications, self-study exercises, personal experiences, practical exercises, handouts, and discussion.
Standard: With at least 80% accuracy (70% for international students) you must:
Analyze two cost categories
Demonstrate how to simplify data
Prepare a graph with two lines
Show Slide #3: TLO
Action: Prepare a Forecast Briefing
Conditions: FM Leaders in a classroom environment working as a member of a small group, using doctrinal and administrative publications, self-study exercises, personal experiences, practical exercises, handouts, and discussion.
Standard: With at least 80% accuracy (70% for international students) you must:
Analyze two cost categories
Demonstrate how to simplify data
Prepare a graph with two lines
Safety Requirements: In a training environment, leaders must perform a risk assessment in accordance with DA PAM , Risk Management. Leaders will complete a DD Form 2977 DELIBERATE RISK ASSESSMENT WORKSHEET during the planning and completion of each task and sub-task by assessing mission, enemy, terrain and weather, troops and support available-time available and civil considerations (METT-TC). Local policies and procedures must be followed during times of increased heat category in order to avoid heat related injury. Consider the work/rest cycles and water replacement guidelines IAW TRADOC Regulation
Environmental Considerations: Environmental protection is not just the law but the right thing to do. It is a continual process and starts with deliberate planning. Always be alert to ways to protect our environment during training and missions. In doing so, you will contribute to the sustainment of our training resources while protecting people and the environment from harmful effects. Refer to FM Environmental Considerations and GTA ENVIRONMENTAL-RELATED RISK ASSESSMENT.
INSTRUCTIONAL LEAD-IN. The previous slide is an example of just a few “thought-provoking” questions to ask oneself about conducting an effective AAR brief.

4. Child Development Center Background
Part of Community Activities Directorate (Morale, Welfare, Recreation) that reports to Garrison Commander
Looks at cost in two categories
Appropriated funds are supplied from Congress
Non appropriated funds are received from user fees that parents pay based on rank
The following brief was presented by the center supervisor to the Garrison Commander
Show Slide #4: Child Development Center Background
1. Learning Step/Activity #1 Analyze two cost categories
Method of Instruction: DSL (large or small group discussion)
Facilitator to Student Ratio: 2:25
Time of Instruction: 40 minutes
Media: Power Point Presentation, Printed Reference Materials
Facilitator's Note: Before facilitating this lesson, ask the students which of the 21st Century Soldier Competency do they think pertain to this lesson? Facilitate a discussion on the answers given and at the end of the lesson revisit it and see if the students still believe their choice are the same.
Note: For this lesson these competencies should be talked about. (Delete those that do not apply)
Communication and Engagement (Oral, written, and negotiation)
Critical thinking, intergovernmental, and multinational competence
Tactical and Technical Competence
Facilitator's Note: Part of Community Activities Directorate (Morale, Welfare, Recreation) that reports to Garrison Commander
Looks at cost in two categories
Appropriated funds are supplied from Congress
Non appropriated funds are received from user fees that parents pay based on rank
The following brief was presented by the center supervisor to the Garrison Commander

5. Show Slide #5: Case Study (Cont.)
Facilitator’s Note: (Facilitate discussion using the slide)
What’s wrong with this picture?
Note: Let the students critique the slide. Some points that they should be able to identify:
The slide is way too detailed. It would be better to start with an overview that showed total cost plan, actual and variance.
Since there is so much detail on the slide, the font is too small. Some of the line items don’t even have any data and could be eliminated altogether.
There is not a clear delineation between the periods. Dec 98 is the just-completed period. Jan 99 and Feb 99 have not happened yet….there is no need for columns for actual and variance.

6. Note these math errors Show Slide #6: Case Study (Cont.)
Facilitator’s Note: Did anyone notice that there were even math errors in the original slide? They are corrected here.
Note these math errors

7. Group Activity Divide into six groups
Each group will have an assignment to prepare information from the data on the previous slides
Each group will get 1 hour minutes to prepare your information
Each group gets 1 hour to brief 0-5 or above and also the Director of Training for FMS
Show Slide #7: Group Activity
Facilitator’s Note: (Facilitator read and facilitate discussion using the slide)
Divide into 6 groups and explain the process for this group activity.
Divide into six groups
Each group will have an assignment to prepare information from the data on the previous slides
Each group will get 2 hours to prepare your information
Each group gets 1 hour to brief an 0-5 or above and also the Director of Training for FMS

8. LSA #1 Check on Learning Show Slide #8: LSA #1; Check on Learning
Facilitator’s Note: There is no check on learning for this LSA. Learners will present check on learning for each or their briefs

9. LSA #1 Summary Show Slide #9: LSA #1; Summary.
Facilitator’s Note: There is no summary for this LSA. Learners will present summary for each or their briefs

10. Prepare a Graph with two lines
Group 1: Prepare a graph with two lines: total cost (both APF and NAF) and revenue. Interpret the graph for the CO.
Show Slide #10: Prepare a graph with two lines
2. Learning Step/Activity #2 Prepare a graph with two lines
Method of Instruction: DSL (large or small group discussion)
Facilitator to Student Ratio: 2:25
Time of Instruction: 1 hour
Media: Slides
Facilitator’s Note: Group 1: Prepare a graph with two lines: total cost (both APF and NAF) and revenue. Interpret the graph for the CO.
Facilitator’s Note: After preparing your information you will brief the CO (class)

11. LSA #2 Check on Learning Show Slide #11: LSA #2; Check on Learning
Facilitator’s Note: Learners will present check on learning for each or their briefs.

12. LSA #2 Summary Show Slide #12: LSA #2; Summary
Facilitator’s Note: Learners will present a summary for each or their briefs.

13. Demonstrate How To Simplify Data
Fewer Categories, Fewer Numbers
Group 2: Prepare one page that shows Jan Plan, Feb Plan, and the change between them. What questions should the CO ask when looking at this analysis?
Show Slide #13: Demonstrate how to simplify data
3. Learning Step/Activity #3 Demonstrate how to simplify data
Method of Instruction: DSL (large or small group discussion)
Facilitator to Student Ratio: 2:25
Time of Instruction: 6 hours
Media: Slides
Facilitator's Note: Group 2 prepare one page that shows Jan Plan, Feb Plan, and the change between them. What questions should the CO ask when looking at this analysis?

14. Group 3 Activity Simplify Data
Fewer Categories, Fewer Numbers
Group 3: Prepare one page that shows Dec Actual, Jan Plan, Feb Plan, and the change between them. What questions should the CO ask when comparing future plans to Dec’s results?
Show Slide #14: Group 3 Activity
Facilitator's Note: Simplify Data; Fewer Categories, Fewer Numbers
Group 3: Prepare one page that shows Dec Actual, Jan Plan, Feb Plan, and the change between them. What questions should the CO ask when comparing future plans to Dec’s results?

15. Group 4 Activity Simplify Data
Fewer Categories, Fewer Numbers
Group 4: Prepare one page that shows Dec Plan, Dec Actual, and the change between them. What Questions should the CO ask when comparing performance to plan?
Show Slide #15: Group 4 Activity
Facilitator's Note: Simplify Data; Fewer Categories, Fewer Numbers
Group 4: Prepare one page that shows Dec Plan, Dec Actual, and the change between them. What Questions should the CO ask when comparing performance to plan?

16. Groups 5&6 Activity Simplify Data
Fewer Categories, Fewer Numbers
Groups 5&6: Prepare one page that shows all the relevant information of the original brief plus the variances of the Jan Plan to Dec Actual and Feb Plan to Jan Plan. Highlight issues raised.
Show Slide #16: Groups 5&6 Activity
Facilitator's Note: Simplify Data; Fewer Categories, Fewer Numbers
Groups 5&6: Prepare one page that shows all the relevant information of the original brief plus the variances of the Jan Plan to Dec Actual and Feb Plan to Jan Plan. Highlight issues raised.

17. Facilitator’s Slides
Facilitator’s Slides to be used during Leaners briefings.
Show Slide #17: Facilitator’s Slides
Facilitator’s Note: Use the flowing slides while the learners are briefing their scenario. The learners slides should look like the following slides.

18. Group 1 Graph Facilitator’s Answer
160.0
140.0
Total Cost
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
Revenue
40.0
Show Slide #18: Group 1 Graph Facilitator’s Answer
Facilitator’s Note: Group 1’s graph should look something like this. The assignment was to prepare a graph with two lines: total cost (both APF and NAF) and revenue. Interpret the graph for the CO.
The graph shows an increasing trend in both revenue and cost, with cost exceeding revenue (normal for appropriated funded operations.)
20.0
0.0
DEC
ACT
JAN
PLAN
FEB
PLAN

19. What’s the Story? Why is APF so favorable in December?
Can we annualize and reprogram?
Story:
$6.7K special payment delayed until Jan
$5.0K new hire delayed until Jan
Conclusion: cannot annualize and reprogram
Show Slide #19: What’s the Story?
Facilitator’s Note: (Facilitator read and facilitate discussion using the slide)
Why is APF so favorable in December?
Can we annualize and reprogram? Favorable variances are opportunities for learning. What did we do right? Can we repeat that in the future? If so, we can annualize the savings and use it for some other purpose.
Story:
$6.7K special payment delayed until Jan. So the “savings” now will be eliminated by an overage in the next month.
$5.0K new hire delayed until Jan.
Conclusion: cannot annualize and reprogram

20. Group 2 Analysis Facilitator’s Answer
Jan Plan
Feb Plan
Var Jan
Appropriated Funds
Pay and Benefits
64.4
68.1
(3.7)
Special Payment
6.7
0.0
Supplies
4.5
9.9
(5.4)
Total APF Cost
75.5
78.0
(2.5)
Non Appropriated Funds
Revenue
60.9
59.2
(1.7)
70.2
56.3
13.9
1.0
Other
1.6
Total NAF Cost
72.8
58.9
Net Income
-11.9
0.4
12.3
Show Slide #20: Group 2 Analysis Facilitator’s Answer
Facilitator's Note: Group 2: Prepare one page that shows Jan Plan, Feb Plan, and the change between them. What questions should the CO ask when looking at this analysis?
Where are the large variances? Why? What caused them?
Can we learn from favorable variances and repeat the savings in the future?
Can we learn from unfavorable variances and avoid them?

21. What’s the Story? Why was revenue/profit down $16K? Story:
($10K) December slow month for day care
Why was this a surprise?
Why didn’t we anticipate and reduce staffing?
($6k) Increased proportion of low rates
Will this annualize and create a major problem for the year?
Show Slide #21: What’s the Story?
Facilitator's Note: Why was revenue/profit down $16K?
Story:
($10K) December slow month for day care
Why was this a surprise?
Why didn’t we anticipate and reduce staffing?
($6k) Increased proportion of low rates (sliding scale based on clients’ income level – more of the clientele was on the lower end of the scale.)
Will this annualize and create a major problem for the year?

22. Community Activities Show Slide #22: Case Study
Facilitator's Note: This slide highlights the unfavorable variances between current month actual and the future plans.

23. Group 3 Analysis Facilitator’s Answer
Dec Actual
Jan Plan
Var Dec
Feb Plan
Appropriated Funds
Pay and Benefits
54.1
64.4
(10.3)
68.1
(14.0)
Special Payment
6.7
(6.7)
0.0
Supplies
3.5
4.5
(1.0)
9.9
(6.4)
Total APF Cost
57.6
75.5
(17.9)
78.0
(20.4)
Non Appropriated Funds
Revenue
42.8
60.9
18.1
59.2
16.4
53.1
70.2
(17.1)
56.3
(3.2)
0.8
1.0
(0.2)
Other
1.6
Total NAF Cost
55.4
72.8
(17.4)
58.9
(3.5)
Net Income
-12.6
-11.9
0.7
0.4
13.0
Show Slide #23: Group 3 Analysis Facilitator’s Answer
Facilitator's Note: Group 3: Prepare one page that shows Dec Actual, Jan Plan, Feb Plan, and the change between them. What questions should the CO ask when comparing future plans to Dec’s results?
Every cost is increasing compared to December. Why? What is changing?
Revenue is expected to increase significantly. Why?

24. What’s the Story? Why are we adding so much payroll?
Is this an opportunity?
Can we avoid or defer?
Can we shift people from other areas where their job is no longer needed?
Story
Unknown
Action item for follow up
Show Slide #24: What’s the Story?
Facilitator's Note: Why are we adding so much payroll? Is this an opportunity?
Can we avoid or defer?
Can we shift people from other areas where their job is no longer needed?
Story
Unknown
Action item for follow up
Key point: AAR doesn’t give all the answers, but it should ask the right questions.

25. Community Activities (Cont.)
Show Slide #25: Case Study
Facilitator's Note: This slide highlights the planned increase in revenue and also planned increase in cost.

26. Group 4 Analysis Facilitator’s Answer
Dec Plan
Dec Actual
Delta Plan
Appropriated Funds
Pay and Benefits
58.8
54.1
4.7
Special Payment
6.7
Supplies
4.2
3.5
0.8
Total APF Cost
69.6
57.6
12.1
Non Appropriated Funds
Revenue
59.0
42.8
(16.2)
52.8
53.1
(0.3)
1.0
0.2
Other
1.6
0.0
Total NAF Cost
55.4
Net Income
3.7
-12.6
(16.3)
Show Slide #26: Group 4 Analysis Facilitator’s Answer
Facilitator's Note: Group 4: Prepare one page that shows Dec Plan, Dec Actual, and the change between them. What Questions should the CO ask when comparing performance to plan?
Almost every cost was less than planned. Why? Can we learn from this and repeat it in the future?

27. What’s the Story?
What’s the risk of cost happening and revenue not happening?
Does revenue rate problem go away?
Why are we adding payroll?
Story
Unknown
Action items taken to review rates and consider increase
Show Slide #27: What’s the Story?
Facilitator's Note: What’s the risk of cost happening and revenue not happening? Is this plan overly optimistic? What if the revenue doesn’t materialize? When we hire another employee, we are committed to incurring that cost. What then?
Does revenue rate problem go away? Will our clientele change to high rate payers next month? Is that reasonable?
Why are we adding payroll?
Story
Unknown
Action items taken to review rates and consider increase

28. Reconciliation December Revenue Cost Actual 42.8 112.9 Plan 59.0 124.9
Variance (16.2)
Explanation
Low Attendance (10.0)
Low Rates (6.2)
Delayed Hire
Delayed Special Payment
All Other
Show Slide #28: Reconciliation
Facilitator's Note: This slide shows the reconciliation/explanation of the total variance. Field questions.

29. Community Activities (Cont.)
Show Slide #29: Case Study
Facilitator's Note: Groups 5&6: Prepare one page that shows all the relevant information of the original brief plus the variances of the Jan Plan to Dec Actual and Feb Plan to Jan Plan. Highlight issues raised.
First item to highlight: The 12.1 favorable variance in Appropriated Funding cost.

30. Community Activities (Cont.)
Show Slide #30: Case Study (Cont.)
Facilitator’s Note: (Facilitator read and facilitate discussion using the slide)
Groups 5&6: Prepare one page that shows all the relevant information of the original brief plus the variances of the Jan Plan to Dec Actual and Feb Plan to Jan Plan. Highlight issues raised.
This slide highlights the unfavorable revenue variance in the NAF side.

31. LSA #3 Check on Learning Show Slide #31: LSA #3; Check on Learning
Facilitator’s Note: Learners will present check on learning for each or their briefs.

32. LSA #3 Summary Show Slide #32: LSA #3; Summary
Facilitator’s Note: Learners will present a summary for each or their briefs.

33. TLO Check on Learning Show Slide #33: TLO Check on Learning
Facilitator’s Note: Facilitator, have each group as a group write down one question from this lesson, give about five minutes. Once all groups have their question written, pass it to another group to answer it. Facilitate a discussion on each question.

34. TLO Summary Action: Prepare a Forecast Briefing
Condition: FM Leaders in a classroom environment working as a member of a small group, using doctrinal and administrative publications, self-study exercises, personal experiences, practical exercises, handouts, and discussion.
Standard: With at least 80% accuracy (70% for international students) you must:
Analyze two cost categories
Demonstrate how to simplify data
Prepare a graph with two lines
Show Slide #34: TLO Summary
Facilitator’s Note: Restate the TLO
Action: Prepare a Forecast Briefing
Conditions: FM Leaders in a classroom environment working as a member of a small group, using doctrinal and administrative publications, self-study exercises, personal experiences, practical exercises, handouts, and discussion.
Standard: With at least 80% accuracy (70% for international students) you must:
Analyze two cost categories
Demonstrate how to simplify data
Prepare a graph with two lines
“Or”
Facilitator at this time, have one Learner from each group to explain the most important take away to them from this lesson. Facilitate a discussion on each answer.