1. Update on Shrimp Trade Issues for 2016
Presentation to the American Shrimp Processors Association
Stewart and Stewart
April 8, 2016

2. Overview Update on CDSOA Antidumping Orders Second Sunset Review
Review of Recent Trade Trends and Opportunities

3. $1.5 million left in clearing accounts
I. CDSOA
$1.5 million left in clearing accounts
Ecuador
$34,717.28
Brazil
$103,201.60
India
$255,618.58
Thailand
$454,914.11
Vietnam
$247,865.04
China
$402,485.70
Total
$1,498,802.31

4. II. AD Orders POR 7 (2011/2012): POR 8 & 9 (2012/2013 and 2013/2014):
India litigation re targeting – ASPA prevailed in defending Commerce’s final results.
The case is now on appeal at the Federal Circuit. ASPA’s response brief is due April 27.
POR 8 & 9 (2012/2013 and 2013/2014):
Commerce started using the differential pricing test.
The results are being challenged at the Court of International Trade by respondents.

5. II. AD Orders POR 10 (2014/2015): POR 11 (2015/2016):
Preliminary results:
India: 0.8% %
Thailand: 0% %
Vietnam: 2.86% %
After briefing, final results currently due in July.
POR 11 (2015/2016):
Review requests filed on China, India, Thailand, and Vietnam at the end of February.
Reviews were initiated on April 7.

6. III. Second Sunset Review
The second sunset review was instituted March 1, 2016
Commerce determines whether dumping is likely to continue or recur if the orders are revoked
The ITC determines if material injury is likely to continue or recur if the orders are revoked
If either agency’s determination is negative, the orders are revoked

7. III. Second Sunset Review
ASPA filed its substantive responses at Commerce on March 31, 2016
ASPA argued that dumping by all five countries will continue or recur, and identified likely margins
No respondents filed substantive responses at Commerce
We expect Commerce to conduct expedited reviews, with final results in late June

8. III. Second Sunset Review
The ITC is currently in the adequacy phase
It is examining responses filed by ASPA, other domestic parties, and respondents from Brazil, India, Thailand, and Vietnam on March 31, 2016
If domestic responses are inadequate, the orders are revoked
If no foreign country response is adequate, reviews are expedited

9. III. Second Sunset Review
ASPA and other domestic parties represent most of the domestic industry, so we expect our responses will be found adequate
The coverage of foreign producer responses means full reviews are likely on all countries
Our comments on adequacy are due May 13,
The Commission will make its adequacy determination on June 6, 2016

10. III. Second Sunset Review
If the ITC conducts full reviews, we estimate:
Draft questionnaires early Sept. 2016
Comments on draft questionnaires mid-Sept
Questionnaires sent to parties mid-Oct. 2016
Questionnaire responses due mid-Nov (period covered will be and part )

11. III. Second Sunset Review
If the ITC conducts full reviews, we estimate:
Pre-Hearing Brief late Dec. 2016
Hearing early Jan. 2017
Post-Hearing Brief mid-Jan. 2017
ITC vote mid-Feb. 2017
ITC determination due Feb. 24, 2017

12. III. Second Sunset Review
Factors the ITC considers in a sunset review:
Whether to cumulate all five countries or examine some separately (no discernible adverse impact)
Likely volume of subject imports:
Likely increases in production capacity or unused capacity in the five countries
Existing inventories or likely increase in inventories
Third-country barriers
Product-shifting

13. III. Second Sunset Review
Factors the ITC considers in a sunset review:
Likely price effects of subject imports
Underselling
Price suppression or depression
Likely impact on the domestic industry
Vulnerability of the domestic industry
Negative effects on production, sales, market share
Negative effects on employment and wages
Negative effects on profits and investment

14. IV. Trends and Opportunities
Imports rose sharply in 2014 and continued to grow in 2015
Imports are higher in first two months of than they were in the same period last year
2015 landings were at a historically low level, though they appear to be rebounding in 2016
Import prices fell sharply in 2015 and are still low in 2016

15. IV. Trade Trends

16. IV. Trade Trends

17. IV. Trade Trends

18. IV. Trade Trends

19. IV. Trade Trends

20. IV. Trade Trends Average Ex-Vessel Shrimp Prices
Alabama, Louisiana, & Mississippi
Size
Feb. 2015
Feb. 2016
% Change
UN/15
$8.80
$9.59
8.98%
15/20
$6.79
$5.48
-19.29%
21/25
$6.15
$4.01
-34.80%
26/30
$5.46
$3.65
-33.15%
31/35
$4.55
$2.52
-44.62%
36/40
$2.15
-46.38%
41/50
$3.75
$1.77
-52.80%

21. IV. Opportunities
Changed circumstances reviews for excluded companies (India, China)
Circumvention research
PROTECT Act
False Claims Act
Administrative reviews
Thailand forced labor issues