1. The Paradox of the 99-foot Man
Confirmation
The Paradox of the 99-foot Man

2. The Raven Paradox
A red herring confirms the hypothesis that all non-black things are non-ravens.
The hypothesis that all non-black things are non-ravens is logically equivalent to the hypothesis that all ravens are black.
If (1) and (2), then a red herring confirms the hypothesis that all ravens are black.
[So] A red herring confirms the hypothesis that all ravens are black.

3. The First Premise
A red herring confirms the hypothesis that all non-black things are non-ravens.
Nicod’s Criterion (a): A generalization is confirmed (to some degree) by an F that is G.

4. Confirmation
Total Evidence Constraint: Evidence E only confirms (or disconfirms) hypothesis H relative to some background knowledge K.
The Bayesian Confirmation Principle: Evidence E confirms hypothesis H relative to background knowledge K iff P(H/E&K) > P(not-H/E&K).