1. 2013 Crop Outlook 2013 American Farm Bureau Federation Annual Meeting
Nashville, Tennessee
Jan. 13, 2013
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
86.0
86.4
88.2
91.9
97.2
Yield
(bu./acre)
153.9
164.7
152.8
147.2
123.4
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,092
13,092
12,447
12,360
10,780
Beg. Stocks
1,624
1,673
1,708
1,128
989
Imports 14 8 28 29
100
Total Supply
13,729
14,774
14,182
13,516
11,869
Feed & Residual
5,182
5,125
4,795
4,548
4,450
Ethanol
3,709
4,591
5,019
5,011
4,500
Food, Seed, & Other
1,316
1,370
1,407
1,426
1,367
Exports
1,849
1,980
1,834
1,543
950
Total Use
12,056
13,066
13,055
12,527
11,267
Ending Stocks
602
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.06
3.55
5.18
6.22
7.40
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
75.7
77.5
77.4
75.0
77.2
Yield
(bu./acre)
39.7
44.0
43.5
41.9
39.6
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,967
3,359
3,329
3,094
3,015
Beg. Stocks
205
138
151
215
169
Imports 13 15 14 16 20
Total Supply
3,185
3,512
3,495
3,325
3,204
Crush
1,662
1,752
1,648
1,703
1,605
Seed & Residual
106
110
130 91
119
Exports
1,279
1,499
1,501
1,362
1,345
Total Use
3,047
3,361
3,280
3,155
3,070
Ending Stocks
135
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.97
9.59
11.30
12.50
14.25
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
63.2
59.2
53.6
54.4
55.7
Yield
(bu./acre)
44.9
44.5
46.3
43.7
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,499
2,218
2,207
1,999
2,269
Beg. Stocks
306
657
976
862
743
Imports
127
119 97
112
130
Total Supply
2,932
2,993
3,279
2,974
3,142
Food
927
919
926
941
950
Seed 78 69 71 76 75
Feed & Residual
255
150
132
164
350
Exports
1,015
879
1,289
1,050
Total Use
2,275
2,018
2,417
2,231
2,425
Ending Stocks
716
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
6.78
4.87
5.70
7.24
7.90
Source: USDA-WAOB 4 4

5. U.S. Cotton Supply and Use
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
9.47
9.15
10.97
14.74
12.32
Yield
(lb./acre)
813
777
812
790
866
Production
(mil. bales)
12.82
12.19
18.10
15.57
17.01
Beg. Stocks
10.05
6.34
2.95
2.60
3.35
Imports
0.00
0.01
0.02
Total Supply
22.87
18.53
21.06
18.19
20.37
Domestic Use
3.59
3.55
3.90
3.30
3.40
Exports
13.26
12.04
14.38
11.71
12.20
Total Use
16.85
15.59
18.28
15.01
15.60
Ending Stocks
4.80
Average Farm Price
($/lb.)
0.478
0.629
0.815
0.883
0.685
Source: USDA-WAOB 5 5

6. Price Ratios Since May 1

7. Projected Corn Yields Top: 2012 Yield Bottom: Change from 2011
Units: Bushels/acre

8. Projected Soybean Yields
Top: 2012 Yield
Bottom: Change from 2011
Units: Bushels/acre

9. Winter Wheat Acreage Top: 2013 Planted Acreage
Bottom: % Change from 2012
Units: 1,000 acres
Source: USDA-NASS

10. Projected Cotton Yields
Top: 2012 Yield
Bottom: Change from 2011
Units: Pounds/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

11. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11

12. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12

13. World Wheat Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 13 13

14. World Cotton Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 14 14

15. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

16. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 16 16

17. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

18. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

19. Wheat Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

20. Cotton Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

21. Source: USDA-WAOB

22. Corn Grind for Ethanol
Negative margins at some ethanol plants have dragged down production.

23. U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption
7.6 bil. gal.
But the industry still faces blend wall issues as fuel consumption has dropped with the economy and the E-10 market is basically full.
7.4 bil. gal.
Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS

24. Current Corn Futures
Source: CME Group, 1/11/2013

25. Current Soybean Futures
Source: CME Group, 1/11/2013

26. Current Wheat Futures
Source: KCBOT, 1/11/2013

27. Current Cotton Futures
Source: ICE, 1/11/2013

28. Total Acreage Shift Source: USDA-NASS
We brought back a lot of acres in Can we hold them in 2013?
Source: USDA-NASS

29. Acreage Shift by Crop Acreage change from 2011 Units: 1,000 acres
Source: USDA-NASS

30. Acreage Shift by State Top: Planted in 2012 Bottom: Change from 2011
Weather was great for planting in 2012 (just not for producing). To hold acreage we will need great planting weather again.
Top: Planted in 2012
Bottom: Change from 2011
Units: 1,000 acres
Source: USDA-NASS

32. Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Soil moisture issues
Biofuel and export strength
Worldwide response to drought-induced pricing
2012/13
USDA
Futures
(1/11/13)
2013/14
Corn
$7.40
$6.63
$5.44
Soybeans
$14.25
$13.60
$12.06
Wheat
$7.90
$7.84
$7.71
Cotton
$0.685
~$0.72
~$0.78

33. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: