1. The collaboration between former "brothers" – how it could be keep?
(CASE STUDY of Central Asia)
Thessalonici, October 2008
Prof. V.А. Dukhovny,
Director SIC ICWC

2. Water means life – is not slogan, it’s sharp reality..
The collaboration between former "brothers" – how it could be keep?
Water means life
– is not slogan, it’s sharp reality..

3. The collaboration between former "brothers" – how it could be keep?
The Aral Sea Basin

4. Territory of the Aral Sea Basin in the newly independent states
The collaboration between former "brothers" – how it could be keep?
Territory of the Aral Sea Basin in the newly independent states
Country
Area of the country in km2
Kazakhstan*
34 440 000
Kyrgyz Republic*
12 490 000
Tajikistan
14 310 000
Turkmenistan
48 810 000
Uzbekistan
44 884 000
Afghanistan*
3 600 000
The Aral Sea Basin
158 534 000

5. The collaboration between former "brothers" – how it could be keep?
Total natural river flow in the Aral Sea Basin (multiyear flow, km3/year)
State
River basin
Aral Sea Basin
Syrdarya
Amudarya
km3 %
Kazakhstan
2.426 –
2.1
Kyrgyz Republic
26.850
1.604
28.454
24.4
Tajikistan
1.005
55.73
56.735
48.6
Turkmenistan
1.53
1.3
Uzbekistan
6.167
5.056
11.223
9.6
Afghanistan
14.50
12.4
Iran
0.86
0.9
China
0.755
0.7
Total Aral sea basin
37.203
79.280
100

6. Land use in the Aral Sea Basin Country Cultivable area (ha) Cultivated
The collaboration between former "brothers" – how it could be keep?
Land use in the Aral Sea Basin
Country
Cultivable
area (ha)
Cultivated
Irrigated
Salt
affected
lands (ha)
Kazakhstan*
Kyrgyz Republic*
21 500
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
The Aral Sea Basin

7. The Soviet Heritage Positive
The collaboration between former "brothers" – how it could be keep?
The Soviet Heritage Positive
8 millions hectares of the irrigated lands;
70 large dams and reservoirs;
Water supply of 93% population;
The channels system (the Karakum canal) and the pumping cascades (Karshi cascade) are largest in the world;
Personnel and scientific potential;
Experience and practice of the centralized water management.

8. Dynamic of water use in Central Asia
The collaboration between former "brothers" – how it could be keep?
Dynamic of water use in Central Asia
Indicator
Unit
1940
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2007
Population
Million.
10.6
14.1
20.0
26.8
33.6
41.5
49,1
Irrigated area
Thousand ha
3.8
4510
5150
6920
7600
7890
7960
Total water
withdrawal
km3/year
52.3
60.61
94.56
120.69
116.27
100.87
106,8
Including irrigation
48.6
56.15
86.84
106.79
106.4
90.3
98,2
Specific water intake
per 1 ha of
irrigated land
m3/ha
12800
12450
16860
15430
14000
11445
11500
per capita
per year
m3 per
capita
5000
4270
4730
4500
3460
2530
2175
GDP (region)
mln $ USD
12,2
16,1
32,4
48,1
74,0
54,0

9. The Soviet Heritage Negative
The collaboration between former "brothers" – how it could be keep?
The Soviet Heritage Negative
Ignoring the ecological water requirements; ecological disaster of the Aral Sea and in the Priaralie with annual damage 210 millions USA dollars, including 150 millions USA dollars in Uzbekistan; land desertification (5 millions hectares);
Ignoring the water users’ opinion;
High cost of waterworks operation;
Cross-coordination of aims of republics;
The conflict of interests between irrigation and water-power engineering.

10. Framework of collaboration Political will of 5 Presidents
The collaboration between former "brothers" – how it could be keep?
Framework
of collaboration
Political will of 5 Presidents
Decision by the Head of States of March 1993
Decision by the Head of States of January 1994 – PBAM 1
“Concept decision of the Aral Sea basin problems”
Agreement on IFAS status, 1999
PBAM 2, 2002

11. Principles of ICWC works
The collaboration between former "brothers" – how it could be keep?
Principles of ICWC works
The operation and management of international waters on the basin of two rivers: Amudarya and Syrdarya will be mutual by this Commission on behalf of all five states;
All decisions related to water management should be accepted by the members of this Commission on the regular meeting taking place each quarter on the base of full consequences;
Executive bodies of Commission take responsibilities for implementation of decision of members ICWC;
The water allocation has based on the existing water resources rules confirmed by Soviet governments;
Sides agreed to avoid any actions that can cause harm or damage to other partners.

12. The collaboration between former "brothers" – how it could be keep?

13. Water collaboration takes place as
The collaboration between former "brothers" – how it could be keep?
Water collaboration
takes place as
Mutual planning and control of annual water Allocation; operation by two BWO’s
Capacity building of ICWC
Information system – transparency and trust
Strengthening legal, institutional, and technical Frameworks of executing bodies;
Implementation of IWRM

14. CAWATER-INFO www cawater-info.net
The collaboration between former "brothers" – how it could be keep?
CAWATER-INFO
www cawater-info.net

15. Comparison of results obtained under two scenarios of climate change
The collaboration between former "brothers" – how it could be keep?
Comparison of results obtained under two scenarios of climate change
(Chirchik-Akhangaran-Keles Basin)

16. Widespread campaign on training of water users and water specialists;
The collaboration between former "brothers" – how it could be keep?
Widespread campaign on training of water users and water specialists;
Advanced training of – specialists at middle and lower levels should be provided every year

17. The collaboration between former "brothers" – how it could be keep?
With the support of CIDA, USAID and SDC, BWO “Syrdarya” together with SIC ICWC started implementing SCADA in 10 stations.
This system allows for continuous registration of water discharge, level, and salinity, as well as for improvement of water distribution accuracy at the main off-takes from
± 10 % to ± 2 %. It is planned to cover the mid-stream up to Chardara by 2010 together with SDC.

18. Adoption of IWRM in the Ferghana Valley
The collaboration between former "brothers" – how it could be keep?
Adoption of IWRM in the Ferghana Valley
Indices
Tajikistan
Uzbekistan
Kyrgyzstan
Cotton
Wheat
Reducing of
Water
delivery
33%
34%
17%
40%
Increasing of
crop
yield
18%
21%
25%
64%
productivity
62%
69%
52%
96%
Project IWRM “Ferghana” Indices of management improving for agricultural production

19. Region – present problems Growth of populations; Climate changes;
The collaboration between former "brothers" – how it could be keep?
Region
– present problems
Growth of populations;
Climate changes;
Future requirement of Afganistan;
Growth hydropower pressure as reflection of globalization and impact of permanent increase of prices on oil and gas.

20. Syr-Darya River Basin 1985 – 1991 1992 - 2006
The collaboration between former "brothers" – how it could be keep?
1985 – 1991
2006
Non
Vegetation
period
Vegetation period
Non-vegetation period
Inflow
2,77
9,29
3,20
10,49
Discharge
3,53
7,93
8,13
5,45
The frequency of the wet years (probability 25 % and lower) and of the extreme wet years (probability 10 % and lower) has increased 1.4 times and 2 times accordingly.

21. Water availability in Syrdarya 2008
The collaboration between former "brothers" – how it could be keep?
Water availability in Syrdarya 2008
Summer
Water natural
availability of mean long-term
norm, %
April
May
June
July
August
Sept. 77 86 65 55 76 70
Delivery, %
Kazakhstan
150
147 44 58
178
Kyrgyzstan
105 64 57 60 67 81
Tajikistan 34 59 69 74 85
Uzbekistan
120 72

22. The collaboration between former "brothers" – how it could be keep?
Strengthening legal framework of cooperation and elaborating common procedures for ICWC started, with the support of ADB.
Established inter-departmental national groups;
Organized dialogue between stakeholders;
Preparation and negotiation of 4 agreements and a number of rules and guidance documents supporting cooperation.

23. We have been strengthening the bridge of cooperation for 15 years!
The collaboration between former "brothers" – how it could be keep?
We have been strengthening the bridge of cooperation for 15 years!
Why it is complicated now to move on? Movement regulations?
Poor advancement of «cooperation rules»
Imperfect structure of regional bodies
Inadequate development of financial and economic approaches

24. What does scour the bridge of cooperation? Restricted sovereignty
The collaboration between former "brothers" – how it could be keep?
What does scour the bridge of cooperation?
Fuel and energy market
Absolute sovereignty
Regional cooperation
Restricted sovereignty

25. Case study of Syrdarya basin 2002…2008!
The collaboration between former "brothers" – how it could be keep?
Case study of Syrdarya basin 2002…2008!
Water releases from Toktogul reservoir
2,2
1,8
3,1
2,9
3,3
3,0
2,5
2,4
2,7
4,4
3,9
4,9
5,1
6,1
7,5
8,2
8,1
8,3
7,1
8,0
8,8
8,4
7,6
8,5
8,7
9,0
9,4
9,7
7,4
5,3
9,1
11,2
8,9
9,3
7,8
3,6
10,9
6,8
6,5
4,5
6,7
6,3
6,2
6,0
3,7
5,9
5,2
0,8
10,6
10,1
12,0
14,5
11,8
11,9
10,2
5,8
11,5
15,2
10,7
13,8
11,6
14,2
14,3
14,4
10,8
13,0
15,3
11,3
13,4
15,0
0,0
2,0
4,0
10,0
14,0
16,0
18,0
Years
billion m3
growing
non-growing

26. International law should be raised to a new level!
The collaboration between former "brothers" – how it could be keep?
International law should be raised to a new level!
Water security should become the target of UN Security Council!
The international water law should be an obligatory mechanism rather than a recommending one.

27. World legislation should give clear recommendations for:
The collaboration between former "brothers" – how it could be keep?
World legislation should give clear recommendations for:
Determining rational and equitable resource use;
Preventing damages and their accounting and assessment;
Boundaries of national sovereignty and basin use;
Values of environmental releases.

28. Thanks for your attention.