1. Dynamic Discrete Disaster Decision Support System D4S2

2. Dynamic Discrete Disaster Decision Simulation System (D4S2)
Provide a circumstance-independent laboratory for testing how the type and scale of the event, situational variables and command decisions affect responders’ efficiency and effectiveness in dealing with complex and evolving disasters.

3. D4S2 Components GIS - ArcGIS 9.2, ESRI
Simulation – Arena 10, Rockwell Automation
Decision Model – Microsoft Visual Basic (.Net), SQL Server
Control Structure – Microsoft Visual Basic (.Net)

4. D4S2 Architecture

5. D4S2 Process (Non-Linear)
Define Event
Type (CBRNE) 15 DHS
Site
Scope
Geographic
Temporal
Extract GeoDatabase Information
Victims
Sites
Assets
Response Assets
Simulate Event
Response
Fire, Police, EMS, HAZMAT, etc.
Victims
Reaction
Casualty Classes
Deterioration
Event Progression
Environment
Air Plumes and Water Flow
Model Decision Making
Strategies
Evacuation
Quarantine
Shelter in Place
Dispatch
Assets
Timing
Reserves

6. Pittsburgh

8. GIS Model

9. GIS Model Zoom

10. Simulation Model

12. Control Interface

13. D4S2 Decision Modeling Rule Based Rules Derived Inference Metadata
Standards
Best Practices
Policy
Procedures
Plans
SMEs (EMT, Police, Fire, HAZMAT, Mil., etc.)
Inference
Inductive
Deductive

21. Validation Levels
Module
Model
System

22. Validation Methodologies
Scientific
Theory Based
Experience
Exercise
Subject Matter Experts

23. Scientific Basis of Science Hypotheses Subjects Instrumentation
Experimental Group
Control Group
Instrumentation
Experiment (Treatment)
Measurement (Unbiased Observation)
Analysis
Statistics

24. Scientific Benefits Problems The “Acid Test” – True Validation
Expensive, Destructive
Hawthorne Effect

25. Theory Based
The phenomena of Emergency Response are analogous to other natural systems (e.g. field theory, fluid flow, etc.) for which we have developed theoretical closed form solutions for well-defined circumstances
Square Flat City

26. Theory Based Benefits Problems Simple Easy to Understand Inexpensive
Hard to Project to Complex Environments

27. Experience
Every location has had some type of emergency in the past for which we have records.

28. Experience Benefits Problems Lots of data (stories, images, etc.)
Data not collected in a fusible fashion
Data uneven – opportunistic
Current event is not representative of future events

29. Exercise
Create a scenario that is representative of the real situation to be studied and play out the scenario

30. Exercise Benefits Problems Wide range Customizable Instrumented
Staged – no affect
Expensive

31. Subject Matter Experts
Use a Subject Matter Expert(s) (i.e. an experienced emergency manager) to evaluate the design decisions, the model and simulation results.

32. Subject Matter Experts
Benefits
Knowledge, Experience
Projective
Problems
Expensive