1. Searching for Solar Breakthroughs Breakout Session #2 - Introduction
Colorado Rural Electric Association
7th Annual Energy Innovations Summit
Denver, Colorado
Greg Wilson
Director, Center for Materials Applications & Performance
Co-Director, National Center for Photovoltaics
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Golden, Colorado - USA
12 September, 2016

2. National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Dedicated Solely to Advancing Energy Efficiency and Clean Energy Research toward Enabling Deployment onto a Modernized Grid
Physical Assets Owned by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy
Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy under Contract to DOE
1700 permanent staff and world-class facilities
More than 350 active partnerships annually
Campus is a living model of sustainable energy 2

3. SERI becomes the National Renewable Energy Laboratory
SERI begins
operation
National Center for Photovoltaics (NCPV) is established
NCPV
Today
1977
1991
1996

4. Sources: Strategies Unlimited, Navigant Consulting & Paula Mints
PV Module Cost Decline
SunShot 2020 Goal: 50¢/W
Sources: Strategies Unlimited, Navigant Consulting & Paula Mints

5. 450ppm Goal: Dramatic Change Needed
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook
Must hold overall energy consumption essentially flat for the next 25 years through major gains in energy efficiency.
Must begin a major shift to zero carbon generation immediately, with measurable reductions by 2020.

6. SOLAR 23,000 per year World EnergyRessources
renewable
finite
World Energy Resources (TW-yr)
WIND
60-120
per year
215
Total
SOLAR
23,000 per year
Natural Gas
Waves
0.2-2 per year
3 -11 per year
240
Total
OTEC
Petroleum
2 – 6 per year
2010 World required ~16 TW
Biomass
3 – 4 per year
90-300
Total
HYDRO
0.3 – 2 per year
TIDES
Geothermal
2050: ~28 TW
0.3 per year
Uranium
900
Total reserve
© R. Perez et al.
COAL 6 6 6 6

7. SHALE SOLAR 23,000 per year World Energy Resources (TW-yr) WIND 60-120
renewable
finite
World Energy Resources (TW-yr)
WIND
60-120
per year
330
Total
SOLAR
23,000 per year
Natural Gas
Waves
0.2-2 per year
SHALE
3 -11 per year
310
Total
OTEC
Petroleum
2 – 6 per year
2010 World required ~16 TW
Biomass
3 – 4 per year
90-300
Total
HYDRO
0.3 – 2 per year
TIDES
Geothermal
2050: ~28 TW
0.3 per year
Uranium
900
Total reserve
© R. Perez et al.
COAL 7 7 7 7

8. PV Annual Production: 1990 - 2015

9. PV Industry Growth – By Technology
Si, single crystal and multi-crystalline, are by far the dominant technology.
Thin films, CdTe and CIGS, are holding on at a fairly constant fraction but could take more share if efficiency goes up at the same price point.