1. Analysis to Inform Management
Adam Green
David Pavlacky
Bird Conservancy of the Rockies

2. Hierarchical distance sampling: density and population size
Large-scale abundance of grids
5 km
1 km
(m)
Small-scale abundance of points
Kéry and Royle, J. Anim. Ecol., Vol. 79.

3. Multi-scale occupancy
Large-scale occupancy of grid cells (ψ)
Small-scale occupancy of points (θ)
Detection in minute intervals (p)
Pavlacky et al., 2012, J. Wildl. Manag., Vol. 76.
1 km
Psi = fraction of grid cells occupied on the landscape. This parameter is used for the distribution modelling.
Theta = fraction of points occupied when the sample grid is occupied. His parameter us used for the habitat modelling.
P = prob. of detection in minute intervals of the point count when the sample grid and point are occupied.

4. Hierarchical Bayesian species richness
Species-specific Site-specific Metacommunity
Zipkin et al., 2009, J. Appl. Ecol., Vol. 46.
Iknayan et al., TREE, Vol. 29.

5. CFLRP treated? based on 2014 info. (2014 - 2016)
Number of grids
Year
Treated?
Total AR PS
2014 10 13 25 35
2015 4
2016 8 12 28 32
Number of points
Year
Treated?
Total AR PS
2014 66
103
307
440
2015 21 32
118
121
2016 58
112
387
479

6. Mean estimates, counts (2014, 2016)
Species
Density
Occupancy
Count
CFLRP
Control
Western tanager
13.0
13.4
0.82
0.77
263
264
Chipping sparrow
13.8
13.2
0.68
166
127
Squirrel, red
17.7
17.0
0.57
0.50
136
130
Pygmy nuthatch
10.4
10.5
0.62
0.45
122
113
Dusky flycatcher
7.0
7.1
0.53 94 95
Hairy woodpecker
6.7
5.3
0.69
108 70
Plumbeous vireo
2.3
2.6
0.28
0.37 46 55
Williamson's sapsucker
3.4
2.0
0.46
0.23 10
Mountain bluebird
1.1
1.6
0.17
0.21 19 28
Olive-sided flycatcher
0.8
0.5
0.14 35 11
Golden-crowned kinglet
0.9
0.04
0.06 4 5
Squirrel, Abert's
0.1
0.4
0.03 2

7. Objectives for analysis
Want analyses that are relevant to management decisions
WWT preliminary analysis objectives:
Understanding of habitat preferences
Assess population status
Broader objective?
Analyses should flow from the objectives to help us to better understand how management actions, in addition to other driving factors (e.g., weather), influence our objectives.
This process of objective, actions and analysis provides a framework to think about other objectives such as fire risk.

8. Adaptive Management Assess problem Monitor Implement Design Evaluate
Adjust
ARM cycle from Williams et al. 2009
Design includes other components of the decision process that drive the rest.

9. Habitat relationships
Adaptive Management
Population status
Plan
Implement
Objectives
Alternative Actions
Decide
This includes objectives, which are the backbone of the entire process.
Objectives reflect the values of the stakeholders and provide quantifiable metrics with which to:
Evaluate management effectiveness
Assess whether objectives have been met
Provide information for state-dependent decisions
Actions are the decisions to be made – what, when, where?
Models are used to predict the response of objectives to each action. Use to evaluate costs and benefits of each action.
Models
Habitat relationships

10. An Example Plan Implement
Objectives
Increase distribution of open-canopy bird species - occupancy
Prevent extinction of closed-canopy bird species - occupancy
Alternative Actions
Decide
allaboutbirds.org
allaboutbirds.org
Distribution of birds = fundamental objective
Occupancy = measurable attribute
Models

11. An Example Plan Implement Thin canopy cover to X% Objectives
Alternative Actions
Decide
fs.usda.gov
Models

12. An Example Plan Implement
Objectives
Establish habitat relationships and assess management effectiveness
Alternative Actions
Decide
Models

13. Say we have 5 open-canopy species
Say we have 5 open-canopy species. Can’t manage perfectly for all but can find a level of canopy cover that works well for all.

14. But what if we have another species of interest that prefers closed canopies. Obviously, we can’t manage for all species at one location. So how do we coordinate management across the region to ensure all species are maintained?

15. Untreated
Open
One extreme, all untreated. May be good for closed-canopy species but not for open

16. Untreated
Open
Other extreme, vice versa

17. Untreated
Open
Coordinate management and assess multiple treatments to provide habitat for closed- and open-canopy species.

18. Summary
Clear, explicit objectives are required for adaptive management
Establish decision analysis framework
Easily accommodate non-biological objectives
Trade-offs

19. Questions?

20. Management Ecology Quantitative
There are 3 components to how forests are managed.
Whether management actions achieve desired outcomes.
Ecological responses and population/behavioral responses.
Quantitative tools used to better understand these processes.
In a management context, we are only concerned with the intersection of these 3 components.
There may be interesting biological questions that will not help us make management decisions.
By identifying explicit objectives, the analysis can focus on the information that is pertinent in making management decisions.

21. Analysis Details
With clear objectives details of the analysis will be obvious
Analysis should include:
Measurable attributes as response variable
Effectiveness of management actions
Other driving factors