1. TOPICS IN MACROECONOMICS RANEPA MARCH 2018
PROFESSOR ROBIN MATTHEWS
KINGSTON UNIVERSITY BUSINESS SCHOOL LONDON
RANEPA MOSCOW
MOSI YOSHKAR-OLA
ECONOMIC STRATEGIES
PRESIDENT OF THE LEAGUE OF CORPORATE STRATEGY AND ACCOUNTING
http/
12/2/2018
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3. Complex adaptive systems can self organise spontaneously
Complex systems have a large number of parts
Interdependence between parts of the system
Hierarchies of systems; systems within systems
Continuous and dynamic interaction within and between levels of hierarchy
Emergence of unpredictable/surprizing events
The scale of effects can’t be predicted for example.
Positive and negative feedbacks. Unpredictable time lags
Systems and subsystems are open
Systems co-evolve.
Complex systems operate far from equilibrium.
Unpredictable patterns emerge which become attractors influence future directions.
Attractors may be orderly or chaotic.
No single entity has complete knowledge of the system.
Path dependence.
Complexity catastrophe

4. The global economy as a complex adaptive system  
The direction of the economy emerges from the interaction of many dispersed and interdependent units (firms, institutions, people, demographics, urbanization, cultures, religions, ethnicities personalities and so on) in parallel.
The action of any one unit depends on the state and action of others units.
The global economy has many levels of interaction; coalitions at many levels ranging from teams to business units and mergers.
Tangled interactions (associations, communications) occur within and between levels.
Coalitions are building blocks. They are recombined and revised continually as the system accumulates experience and adapts.
There are many niches created by new technologies that can be exploited by adaptation. Thus large and small local and global firms coexist and coevolve on the global economy; glocalisation.
There is no universal super-competitor, such as the USA or China or massive corporation or institution that can fill all niches; often they are helpless, global terrorism for example.
There are so many niches serving many purposes and needs the system operates far from equilibrium or optimum.
Despite the talk about progress and world growth recent developments have seen a resurgence of real politique; struggle for resources, struggle for dominance

5. (current system state) T
Past
Future
upside
System state
possible futures
possible causes
probable futures
Probable causes
possible causes
possible futures
Now
(current system state) T
downside
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6. META MODEL PAYOFFS INNER DYNAMICS DYNAMICS GRAMMAR OUTER DYNAMICSOUTER
Mandala
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