1. Daisy World an introduction to systems and equilibria

2. Geological Example: Albedo Feedback high albedo: most energy is reflected back into space low albedo: most energy is absorbed and heats the surface

3. Some Albedo Values (from Table 2-1, Kump et al., 1999) Sand:0.20 – 0.30 Grass:0.20 – 0.25 Forest:0.05 – 0.10 Water (overhead sun): 0.03 – 0.05 Water (sun near horizon):0.50 – 0.80 Fresh snow:0.80 – 0.85 Thick cloud:0.70 – 0.80

4. Image source: NASA Visible Earth, http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view_detail.php?id=4701

5. Albedo Feedback cont. Surface Temperature Snow Coverage Albedo

6. Albedo Feedback cont. Surface Temperature Snow Coverage Albedo

7. A variation of the Albedo Feedback how do plants respond to climate ?

10. possible outcomes of feedback loops Possible choices: –Arrived at stable end state –Never settles down in a stable end state but oscillates –Never reaches any stable end state What kind of feedback loops would produce these options?

11. Equilibrium States If system is in equilibrium it will not change unless it is disturbed two types: stable, unstable

12. Stable Equilibrium (within limits) system will return to old equilibrium state

13. Unstable Equilibrium small perturbations will dramatically affect the state of the system

15. What kind of feedback loops tend to produce stable equilibria ?

16. Long-term temperature fluctuations

17. Daisy World Gaia hypothesis Earth a self-regulating system How can it do that without a brain Daisy World: local processes affect global state of climate

19. Influence of Daisy Growth on Surface Temperature Daisy CoverageAvg. Surface Temp. negative or positive feedback ? why ?

20. Daisy (Albedo) Feedback

21. Influence of Daisy Growth on Surface Temperature

22. two modes: –below optimum temperature positive feedback –above optimum temperature negative feedback

24. Two Feedback Mechanisms

25. Some Mathematical Conventions y = f(x) means that y is a function of an independent variable x mathematicians plot the independent variable on the abscissa (horizontal axis) and the dependent variable on the ordinate (vertical axis) physicists and other scientists are not always that rigid!

27. Two Feedback Mechanisms

28. How to Solve for Both:

29. Two Equilibrium Points Both conditions have to be fulfilled Daisy coverage affects surface temperature Surface temperature affects daisy coverage under which conditions is the system in equilibrium?

30. How Does the System Reach Equilibrium?

32. Are both Equilibria Created Equal? try out a few permutations yourself is the system always reaching an equilibrium?

33. Two Types of Equilibria

34. External Forcing of the Daisy World System Forcing: outside influence on the system (e.g., insolation, chemical composition of the climate system etc.) How does Daisy World respond to external forcings ?

35. How will Insolation changes affect the Daisy World ?

36. Effect of Luminosity on Temperature

39. How does Feedback Affect new Equilibrium Temperature? Temperature change without Daisy feedback ? (number of daisies is constant) Temperature change with Daisy feedback ? (Daisies will spread)

40. How to Quantify Importance of Feedback? Temperature change without Daisy feedback ? (number of daisies is constant) Temperature change with Daisy feedback ? (Daisies will spread)

41. How to Quantify Importance of Feedback? compare ΔT 0 and ΔT eq feedback factor:

42. How will Stability of Equilibria be Affected?

43. Stability of Equilibrium Positions

44. Effects of Daisy Feedback biological albedo feedback positive and negative feedback loop two equilibrium positions (one stable, one unstable) resulting equilibrium is generally not optimum growth temperature for daisies presence of daisies lowers planetary temperatures

45. Effects of Daisy Feedback (cont.) Dampens effects of external forcings feedback factor f quantifies feedback effect Stability of equilibria changes