1. A consistent glance at the future
Emission sCenarios
A consistent glance at the future

2. Goal „consistent glance at the future“
Projections for all sources and pollutants
„future inventories“ for 2030/2050 showing approx. future emission levels
Consideration of mitigation goal for different groups of pollutants (e.g. more biomass is good for climate, but bad for POPs)
allows for
Target checking for emission reduction promises
Measure-Effect-Analysis
Fullfilment of reporting requirements under NEC/UNECE
Scenario comparison
Scenario „Rapid Prototyping“
Combination of different source-specific scenario to a complete inventory
NOT a replacement for modelling, but an added extra to „transplate energy scenarios into emission projections“

9. Starting Point
Projections are few and far between, cover only parts of the inventory
VISUAL: sources-pollutant-matrix
rare updates, because they are a lot of work  problems with events like economic crisis
Models available: PSz, Nationales Programm, PAREST, DEESY, Panta Rhei

10. GHG Air HM POP Energy Industry Solvents Agricul. LULUCF Waste
Emission Scenarios
PSz
National
Program
NEC
vTI

11. Approach VISUAL: overview diagram Aggregation and abstraction
Emission remain constant unless better information available  upper bound emission
Energy divided into 13 sectors a 10 fuels
Industry by source and product
Agriculture by source and animal type
Other: Emission only
Abstract AR and IEF at all these levels extrapolated  calculation of future emissions
Scenarios alter future AR and IEF to show alternative „futures“. Scenarios inherit data for all place they leave empty  allows for rapid prototyping
VISUAL: table and diagram with numbers

12. Central Emission System (CES):
Detailed data von activities (AD), emission factors (EF) and emissions (EM)
Time series from 1990 onwards,
Represents baseline scenario (“REF“)
Products
Emission reporting:
Tables in CRF- and NFR-format, gridded emissions, indicators
Public information:
Trend tables, “real-time” inventory
Extra assessments:
Base data for internal and external assessments
Defined interface:
Aggregated AD, EM, IEF for CES-data
Standard format
Projections:
“Translation” of GHG-scenarios for air pollution,
Assessment of UBA-scenarios
Emission scenarios:
CES-consistent emission data for scenarios,
Extrapolation of aggregated implied EF,
“Translation” of GHG-scenarios for air pollution,
Scenarios up to 2050
Projection and Scenario projects
Supply of base data for scenarios
Adjustment for recalculation
Project results feed into emission projection database 1. 2. 3.

13. AR * EF = EM

15. 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 AR
1200
1205
1100
1050
1000
950
800
820
700
IEF
0,1
0,08 EM
120
120,5
110
105
100 95 80
65,6 56

16. Implementation ZSE: 2.500 AR, 20.000 EF, 20.000 EM
ESZ: 150 AR, EF, EM
Scenario „REF“ in ESZ equals the CES for 1990 to current year, current year to 20xx remains constant  upper bound approx.
Scenario „I2.6“: current best guess from working group I2.6  „most probable“ approx.
Scenarios PSz-MMS, PSz-MWMS, and PSz-SWS as definied by modelling of „Politikszenarien“

17. Central Emission System
AR x EF = EM
Emission Scenarios

18. Szenarios
REF
I2.6
PSzV-MMS
PSzV-MWMS
PSzV-SWS

19. Result „Trendtables“ up to 2050 (with scenario combination)
Scenario comparision
NEC/UNECE-projection reporting
GHG short term projection integrated
VISUAL: Examples

25. TODO Other pollutants More Scenarios (z.B. 100% EE UBA study)
More work on future IEFs
More work on measure-effect-analysis
Take away: use a good tool!