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Estimation of R(t). Estimation of R(t). (A) Daily R(t) as inferred from the daily incidence of new infections for one stochastic model realization. Tg.

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Presentation on theme: "Estimation of R(t). Estimation of R(t). (A) Daily R(t) as inferred from the daily incidence of new infections for one stochastic model realization. Tg."— Presentation transcript:

1 Estimation of R(t). Estimation of R(t). (A) Daily R(t) as inferred from the daily incidence of new infections for one stochastic model realization. Tg is assumed to be exponentially distributed with an average of 3 d. (B) The same as A but the distribution of Tg has been derived from the analysis of the transmission tree of the selected model simulation. (C) The same as A but using the distribution of Tg over time as derived from the analysis of the transmission tree of the selected model simulation. The goodness of the estimate of R(t) increases with a more precise knowledge of the generation time value and distribution. Quan-Hui Liu et al. PNAS doi: /pnas ©2018 by National Academy of Sciences

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