1. Models for Assessing and Forecasting the Impact of Environmental Key
Pollutants on Freshwater
and Marine Ecosystems
and Biodiversity
26 partners from 14 countries
Coordination: Werner Brack,
UFZ Leipzig, Germany

2. Consortium

3. Motivation monitoring programmes Key Stressors
sources of contamination l o g i c a l s o t c a t u e s i n s u ff i c i e n t
monitoring programmes W F D
river basin
biological chemical
hydromorphological
quality b y
management 2
Driving forces
and pressures that prevent the
achievement of good status.
Key Stressors 1 5 o g i c a l s t a t c o l u s g o o d e

4. Basin scale approach Site scale approach
Driving forces
and pressures that prevent the
achievement of good status.
Key Stressors
Basin scale
approach
Site scale
approach

5. Approach Basin scale Site scale prioritisation, decision support
effect modelling
priority
sites
key
toxicants
effect analysis
(in vitro, in vivo, in situ)
effect
directed
analysis
effect-
Site scale
central MODELKEY database
integrated risk indexes
prioritisation, decision support
exposure analysis
(sediment, water,
biota)
exposure
exposure modelling

6. Elbe, Scheldt, llobregat
Site scale
approach
Structure
Two-dimensional
Structure
Sub-projects und
work packages according
to the scientific approaches
2) Case studies (river basins)
Sub-projects and
work packages:
6 scientific sub-projects
21 scientific
work packages
4 accompanying
Basin scale
approach
sub-projects
case studies
Elbe, Scheldt, llobregat

7. Site scale approach: Ecological risk assessment

8. WFD and Pollutants
ANNEX VIII
INDICATIVE LIST OF THE MAIN POLLUTANTS
1. Organohalogen compounds and substances which may form such compounds in the aquatic environment.
2. Organophosphorous compounds.
3. Organotin compounds.
4. Substances and preparations, or the breakdown products of such, which have been proved to possess carcinogenic or mutagenic properties or properties which may affect steroidogenic, thyroid, reproduction or other endocrine-related functions in or via the aquatic environment.
5. Persistent hydrocarbons and persistent and bioaccumulable organic toxic substances.
6. Cyanides.
7. Metals and their compounds.
8. Arsenic and its compounds.
9. Biocides and plant protection products.
10. Materials in suspension.
11. Substances which contribute to eutrophication (in particular, nitrates and phosphates).
12. Substances which have an unfavourable influence on the oxygen balance (and can be measured using parameters such as BOD, COD, etc.).
Those priority list substances discharged into the river basin or sub-basins must be monitored. Other pollutants (ANNEX VIII) also need to be monitored if they are discharged in significant quantities in the river basin or sub-basin.
(Monitoring. The key implementation requirements of the Water Framework Directive. Policy Summary to the Guidance Document)

9. KEYTOX complex effect environmental samples cause-effect relationships
Site scale
approach
KEYTOX
complex
environmental
samples
effect
cause-effect
relationships
effect-
directed
analysis
cause
toxicant

10. KEYTOX complex contamination toxicant
Site scale
approach
KEYTOX
complex
contamination
Recently identified toxicants in EDA studies
in my lab:
biological
analysis
dioxin-like
chemical
analysis
toxic to algae
mutagenic
toxic to algae
confirmation
toxic to
bacteria
biological
analysis
dioxin-like
fractionation
toxic to
invertebrates
toxicant
Brack et al., ET&C 24 (2005) 2445
Brack et al., (Arch. Environ. Contam. Toxicol. (1999) 164
Brack et al., ET&C 22 (2003) 2228
Brack & Schirmer ES&T 37 (2003) 3062

11. Site scale approach: Ecological risk assessment

12. effect- and bioaccumulation models
Site scale
approach
SITE
effect- and bioaccumulation models
inverte-
brates
biofilms
fish
in situ
community,
bio-diversity
taxonomic diversity, dominance structure, indicator species, trophic levels, food chains
in situ effects,
Microcosms
PICT, metabolic
profiling
in situ bio-
markers
in vitro/in vivo
toxicity
sediment-
contakt-
tests
in vitro
testing
toxicity to algae
and bacteria
exposure
Concentrations in sediment and water,
bioavailable and internal concentrations
key toxicants effect-directed analysis

13. BASIN
Basin scale
approach
Central MODELKEY database compiling all available monitoring data on habitat, hydraulics, contamination, toxicity, and ecology
for
Elbe
Scheldt
Llobregat

14. EXPO Generic exposure models integrating erosion, transport and
Basin scale
approach
EXPO
Generic exposure
models integrating
erosion, transport and
sedimentation of
particulate toxicants and
partitioning of key
toxicants between
water, sediments,
and biota

15. EFFECT Diagnostic effect models A C mapping B comparison
Basin scale
approach
EFFECT
Diagnostic effect models A
C mapping
comparison
with reference B
ecological-statistical
cause analysis
Ohio

16. Basin scale
approach
EFFECT
Predictive models for effects of individual toxicants and mixtures on biodiversity
organisms:
fish
macro invertebrates
diatomes ….
methods: artificial neural networks: multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and self-organizing map (SOM)
environmental data: physico-chemical,
habitat, toxicants

17. User-friendly decision support system (DSS) for risk and hot spot
Basin scale
approach
DECIS
User-friendly decision
support system (DSS)
for risk and hot spot
prioritisation for a better
river basin management.

18. } Basin scale Site scale approach approach MODELKEY and Monitoring
 Comprehensive database of monitoring data from Elbe, Scheldt, and Llobregat (BASIN) for use in basin scale exposure (EXPO), effect (EFFECT) and risk modelling and prioritisation (DECIS).
 suggestions for revised basin-specific key toxicants for revised monitoring lists
 Effect-directed analysis (KEYTOX) and ecological risk assessment (SITE) at major hot spots of contamination for
risk-based key toxicant identification
suggestions for revised monitoring lists }

19. Thanks! to MODELKEY partners for their contributions
to the EC for funding and
to you for your attention