1. no conflict of interest regarding my presentation
October 24th
Evaluation of drug laws and policies by means of indicators and data regarding minor subjects, PDUs…...
Carla Rossi,
Centro Studi Statistici e Sociali, Ce3S
No conflict of interest regarding my presentation

2. Drug Policy evaluation
‘Evaluation is essential for effective policymaking, helping ensure that policies and programmes have the desired effect, provide value for money and do not have negative unintended consequences’ ( overviews/policy-evaluation_en)

3. Quantitative evaluation
The goals of drug law and policy interventions are summarized as demand reduction and supply reduction.
The impact and the consequences can be measured by several, calculated or estimated, indicators, obtained on the basis of administrative and of survey dates sets.
The consequences that have been studied are summarized in consumer health indicators, consumer crime indicators and drug market size and consequences.
Country comparisons are important.
Even a single country (Italy) data sets are of high interest, since three different laws, more or less repressive, have been subsequently in force in a quite short period (11 years).

4. Available data sets
Information on specific sub-populations is particularly rich and can be exploited to analyse special aspects, but also to derive more general considerations:
students (ESPAD survey);
problem drug users (PDUs): data from the health and social assistance services;
reported dealers (police, trials and other repression bodies data sets);
minor subjects involved in drug using and dealing (many sources data sets).

5. A very bad unscientific drug law in Italy
At the beginning of 2006, the so-called Fini- Giovanardi law was approved, even more harmful than the former one, already prohibitionist (Jervolino- Vassalli of 1990, D.P.R. 309/90).
The latter is again in force after the Constitutional Court's February 12, 2014 ruling, which "eliminated" the 2006 law.
Fini-Giovanardi law, absolutely lacking in scientific bases, has produced very seriously measurable damages that prohibitionist politicians do not know or do not evaluate in their gravity, as they publicly demonstrate ( /cannabis-proibire-legalizzare-o-liberalizzare- ).

6. Fini-Giovanardi Law (2006:) harmful consequences for drug consumers
The 2006 drug law (Fini-Giovanardi) was more restrictive, particularly with regard to cannabis.
The consequences, both criminal and administrative, for sellers and consumers of cannabis were equalized to those of other illegal substances (heroin, cocaine ...).
Same penalties for the sale of all substances without distinction.
Consumers could no longer avoid the administrative sanction (suspension of driving license, passport withdrawal, ...) even accepting therapeutic intervention to limit the use of the substance (secondary prevention), as was possible with the DPR 309/90.

7. Therapeutic programs and administrative sanctions for reported drug users

8. Poly-drug dealing and (consequently) poly-drug using
From the official data on the seizures of DCSA (Central Direction of Anti-Drug Services) it appears that
immediately after the entry into force of Fini- Giovanardi, the poly-dealing increased.
As a consequence, poly-drug use increased soon and is recently quite high in Italy.
Further information comes from surveys:
Poly-drug using (ESPAD 2011);
Poly-drug dealing (EU survey 2013);

9. Poly-drug dealing (EU survey 2013)
Trautman F, Kilmer B, Turnbull P. Eds. Further insights into aspects of the illicit EU drugs market. European Commission, 2013.

10. Country
Median
Mean
Albania
0.12
0.46
Italy
0.27
0.44
Bosnia and Herzegovina (Federation)
0.19
Cyprus
0.07
0.34
Montenegro
0.05
0.3
Liechtenstein
0.04
Iceland
0.26
Malta
0.24
Ireland
France
0.08
United Kingdom
0.23
Netherlands
Bulgaria
0.21
Belgium (Flanders)
Slovenia
0.2
Russian Federation
Hungary
Serbia
0.03
Germany
Portugal
0.18
Croatia
Slovak Republic
0.17
Poland
Latvia
Greece
Denmark
Czech Republic
Sweden
0.16
Norway
Ukraine
0.15
Kosovo
Bosnia and Herzegovina (Republic of Srpska)
0.02
Finland
0.14
Romania
0.13
Lithuania
Moldova
Estonia
Faroe Islands
Global mean
 0.04
0.21 
Normalized poly-drug use score (PDS) ordered with respect to the value of the mean (ESPAD 2011, 38 countries).

11. Italian administrative data sets show…
The proportion of minor drug consumers reported is increasing;
the proportion of assisted PDUs (15-19 years old and years old) are increasing;
the proportion of hospitalizations of minors due to drug use is increasing;
the proportion of minors involved in criminal actions connected to drug using and dealing is increasing.

12. Percentage of minors among subjects reported for drug use and ratio of minors reported to 10,000 minor residents
Increase
Percentage: + 56%
Ratio: +27%

13. Age distribution of PDUs in therapy services (%)
Class <19 increase:+1050% Class increase:+23.54%
Age
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
<15
0.05
0.02
0.03
0.01
15-19
0.17
0.52
1.36
2.49
2.52
<19
0.22
0.54
1.38
2.53
20-24
3.61
4.95
5.44
5.98
6.12
25-29
9.05
9.54
9.5
9.87
9.52
30-34
12.93
12.99
12.82
12.9
12.52
35-39
15.87
15.62
15.61
15.46
14.98
>39
58.31
56.35
55.25
53.27
54.32

14. Hospitalizations due to drug use and indicators of minors
Year
Minor residents (14-17)
Hospitalized <15
Hospitalized
15-17
Minors hospitalized
Total hospitalized
Ratio1 (1000)=Minors hospitalized/1000 Hospitalized
Ratio2 (100000)=Minors hospitalized/ residents
2006
101
268
369
18867
19.6
16.0
2007
106
258
364
19405
18.8
15.7
2008 98
366
18849
19.4
15.8
2009
105
218
323
16999
19.0
14.1
2010 80
232
312
17075
18.3
13.7
2011 89
233
322
16665
19.3
14.3
2012
110
241
351
16483
21.3
2013
109
320
429
16553
25.9
19.2
2014
132
376
508
17393
29.2
22.3
2015
383
493
17835
27.6
21.5

15. Hospitalization of minors due to drug use (indicators)

16. Age distributions of minor PDUs who were hospitalized in 2010 and 2015 due to specific illegal substance use

17. Crime indicator 1: percentage of minors among subjects reported for drug dealing in 100 police operations

18. Crime indicator 2: Proportion of minors defendants

19. Conclusions
Several conclusions can be obtained, in particular regarding Italy.
The main ones:
with respect to demand reduction: the overall inefficacy of prevention interventions;
with respect to supply reduction: the inefficacy of law enforcement interventions;
increasing minors subjects involved in using and dealing;
upturn of heroin use in recent years…..

20. Many further data sets and indicators are available
I can provide further data and indicators: drug market dimension, arrested dealers, inefficacy of law enforcement ….
Unfortunately I can’t show them here…..there is no time, ….but they can be requested.
Thank you very much