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Chapter 4 Multivariable and Factor Valuation
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Extended CAPM Allowance for a tax effect The presence of inflation
Market capitalization P/E and M/B value effects
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Allowance for the Tax Effect
Dividends Tax wedge Capital gain or loss PV advantage Systematic bias effect Three-dimensional relationship Yield tilt
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Three-Dimensional Security Market Surface Illustrating a Tax Effect
Figure 4-1 Security Market Surface Expected return Systematic risk (beta) Dividend yield
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The Presence of Inflation
Add an inflation premium Unanticipated changes Covariance of uncertainty with the stock is desirable Adding an inflation variable Covariance with inflation Desirable Undesirable
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Market Capitalization Size
Number of shares outstanding x share price Small stock effect Provides less utility Requires a higher return
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P/E and M/B Value Effects
P/E ratio Observed returns Higher for low P/E ratio stocks Lower for high P/E ratio stocks Form of mean reversion Important in tempering return estimates M/B ratio Higher for low M/B ratio stocks Lower for high M/B ratio stocks Fama and French
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Final Observations Size Consistent & Significance P/E M/B
Dividend-Yield Effect Most Controversial Precise Measurements Extensions Market Equilibrium Beta Dominant
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Factor Models in General
Two-factor model Only the factor risks are important Unanticipated changes matter Equilibrium conditions to be upset Security prices to change More than two factors Economic variables Behavioral variables
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Arbitrage Pricing Theory
The arbitrage process Roll-Ross and their five factors Other empirical testing Implications of the APT for this book
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APT An equilibrium model Developed by Ross Arbitrage eliminates itself
Profit opportunities become exhausted Security Returns Relationship Limited Number of Factors
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The Arbitrage Process Buy the security with the higher expected return
Sell short the security with the lower expected return Price adjustment will occur Foundation for equilibrium pricing is arbitrage
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Roll-Ross and Their Five Factors
Change in expected inflation Unanticipated changes In inflation In industrial production In the yield differential Between low- and high-grade bonds The default-risk premium Between long-term and short-term bonds The term structure of interest rates Affect primarily cash flows Affect market capital-ization
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Other Empirical Testing
No agreement on important risk factors No agreement on the number of factors Inconclusive testing No superior models Estimates are subject to wide error
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Implications of the APT for This Book
Intuitively appealing Relating security returns to underlying risk factors Provide better understanding of the economic forces that affect share price APT has not displaced the CAPM
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