1. Conduction of a simulation considering cascading effects
Anders Lönnermark SP Swedish Technical Research Institute
Clément Judek and Abla Mimi Edjossan Sossou, University of Lorraine

2. Plan of the presentation
Introduction
Key concepts theory
Cascading effects
Crisis situation
Emergency situation
Scenario
Simulation methodology
Conclusion

3. Introduction
Critical situation that can be wether an emergency situation or a crisis situation can be of high consequences in a very rapid context
Decisions to be made are very important
Experience is needed to improve the capability to manage a critical situation
From real situations management
From sensitization and training sessions
Simulations are a solution because:
One can be planned whenever
One can fail
One can rise awareness and train

4. Key concepts theory
As in any work, we must set some definitions to avoid misunderstandings
In the wide domain of risk management the need to understand each other is crucial, because:
of high consequences
the situations can be very specific
there are many different involved stakeholders
We propose to clarify four important concepts
Cascading effects
Crisis situation
Emergency situation
Scenario

5. Key concepts theory Cascading effects
Cascading effects are the effects arising when an incident affecting one system or function in society propagates to another function or service, due to a dependency between them
For the CascEff project, cascading effects refer to the impacts of an initiating event where:
System dependencies lead to impacts propagating to other systems, and;
The combined impacts of the propagated event are of greater consequences than the root impacts, and;
Multiple stakeholders and/or responders are involved.

6. Key concepts theory Cascading effects An example
The initiating event may be a fire in a power station happening in the Power system (the originating system called System 1 in the figure).
Cascading effects arise due to a dependency between the Power system and the Railway system (the dependent system called System 3 in the figure).
If this impacted system gives rise to additional impacts to other system, there is a continuation of the cascading effect.
The first resulting effects from directly impacted systems from the initiating event to dependent systems are defined as “first-order cascading effects”. If this line of propagation continues, second, third, etc. order cascading effects arise.

7. Key concepts theory Crisis situation
A clear definition of a crisis is necessary to differentiate it from other critical situations such as an emergency situation
This differentiation is essential for designing the conditions and the scenario in a simulation
The large amount of different definition found in the literature is confusing
Focusing on the given characteristics we propose to define the crisis with two categories of characteristics

8. Key concepts theory
Crisis situation
By definition, there is no prepared plan for a crisis situation
Managers must adapt themselves
To improve their capability to steer a crisis situation, they can be aware of it to understand rapidly the nature of the situation they are coping with
In the context of a crisis, cascading effect is a concept that is important regarding its aftermaths spreading nature that can lead to « chaos », the involvement of « many stakeholders » and « important consequences » that are part of the characteristics of the crisis situation.

9. Key concepts theory Emergency situation is not a crisis situation
This distinction is important
Both situation deal with high consequences, quick onset, many involved stakeholder etc.
However, an emergency situation is a known situation for which a prepared plan can be applied
Involved stakeholders must be trained to improve their capability to apply the prepared plan

10. Key concepts theory The concept of scenario
A scenario can be described as a story of possible future events
Scenarios can be used for many different purposes, such as:
to illustrate alternative solutions and identify potential problems
to prevent certain effects
to reduce uncertainty
to question existing assumptions
to indicate thinkable futures
they can also be used as a management tool to improve the quality of strategic decisions

11. Key concepts theory The concept of scenario
Walker (1994) identifies four criteria for scenarios to be adequate and qualitative:
consistency
plausibility
credibility
relevance

12. CascEff scenario library

13. CascEff scenario library II

14. The Simulation methodology
Design and development
Identify the exercise goal (training, testing/validation, raising awareness etc.);
Set SMART (Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, Time-bound) exercise objectives and define corresponding performance/evaluation criteria;
Appoint the Exercise director and an Exercise project team (coordinator, operators, evaluators);
Develop the exercise scenario and prepare all content e.g. build the scenario
Create exercise documentation
Define the type of activity: test, simulation, discussion-based or operations-based exercise, etc. and prepare for a test plan/exercise script accordingly. Elaborate the test plan in parallel to the course of actions in the scenario:
Choice of location;
Appropriate infrastructure;
Required staff;
Preparation of the required resources and logistic plan;
Etc.
Establish a communication strategy.

15. The Simulation methodology
Design and development
Objectives setting of the planned session
Defining the objectives of the session will help designing it. We propose two general types of objectives:
Training and testing
Are there elements to test and to train for?
Are cascading effects considered in specific plan?
Raising awareness
Are cascading effects not yet considered?

16. The Simulation methodology
Design and development
Different types of simulation - Regarding the objectives, the designer of the session must chose a type of simulation.

17. The Simulation methodology
Design and development
Scenario writing methodology
Scoping the scenario field
Definition of the purpose
Cascading effects
Crisis situation
Emergency situation
Strategical vs Tactical vs Operational
Identification of problems to be addressed
Theme
Identification of key factors
Key decision factors
Drivers and barriers
Analyzing key factors and their dependencies
Scenario script generation
Scenario transfer to paths

18. The Simulation methodology
Scenario description template
Name
Place (location)
Type of initiating event
Description of the initial system
Description of the course of events
Description of cascading effects
Description of the consequences
Scale of the scenario
Involved stakeholders
Reference to historical event (if necessary)
Reference to similar/relevant events (if necessary)
How does the scenario differ from the historical event (if necessary)

19. The Simulation methodology
Conduct
Start up briefing by the exercise coordinator: briefing of the exercise operators, key actors and supporting actors and distribution of documents;
Roll out of the test script and scenario;
Termination of the exercise

20. The Simulation methodology
Conduct
Identify the roles
Exercise roles (applicable to all exercises)
Exercise director or manager
Exercise (project) team
Exercise coordinator
Evaluator(s)
Observer(s)
Exercise Operators
Safety controller
Scenario roles (specific roles in relation with the scenario)
Participants Key actors
Supporting actors

21. The Exercise methodology
Evaluate
Post exercise debriefing: feedback from the evaluators is gathered, shared and discussed in one or more debriefing sessions;
Consultation of stakeholders: results of the debriefing can be shared with stakeholders

22. The Exercise methodology
Improvement action plan
Improvement action plan: lessons learnt from the exercise need to be the subject of an action plan with actions, guidelines and/or recommendations for improvement

23. Conclusion Do not forget to define the objecives
to fit with expectations
to avoid misunderstandings
Chose the adequated simulation types
Build a relevant scenario regading the objectives
Adapt the methodology to fit with the wanted session