1. Thinking about Nigeria
Poverty
Colonialism
Oil curse
Corruption
Ethnic/religious cleavages
Federalism
Legitimacy

3. Yr 2006
Population, total (millions)
144.7
Population growth (annual %)
2.4
HDI
CPI
.466 (151/177)
(144/146)
Life expectancy at birth, total (years)
46.6
Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births)
100.0
Literacy rate, youth female (% of females ages 15-24)
81.3
GNI (current US$) (billions)
103.3
GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$)
640.0
Prevalence of HIV, total (% of population ages 15-49)
3.9

4. Ethnic/ Religious Cleavages
Ethnic groups: Hausa-Fulani (29%), Yoruba (21%), and Igbo(Ibo) (18%)
Ijaw (10%) reside in the Niger delta area
Religious Cleavages: 50% Muslim (mainly in the north); 40% Christian (Anglicans, Baptists, Pentecostal), 10% other traditional.
Importantly – some tribes, such as Yoruba, while majority Christian, have sizeable
non-Christian minorities
Regional differences: North – Muslim and underdeveloped; South – Christian
modern; Middle zone – mixed religion

10. Nigeria is a rentier state
95% export revenues from oil
Significant foreign company
Involvement (e.g., Shell, Chevron)
Member of OPEC
The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) manages the state-owned oil industry.

11. Thinking about Nigeria - again
Key questions
How is the legacy of colonialism reflected in Nigerian politics?
How has oil helped and hurt Nigeria?
What role does ethnicity play in reinforcing the country’s difficulties?
Why does Nigeria remain so poor?
How have alternations between civilian and military regimes exacerbated Nigeria’s problems?

12. Nigeria History Sokoto Caliphate 1800 – 1900 north Islamic
Yoruba, Oyo, Ifo and Benin kingdoms in south
1860 – 1945 British Colonial rule
Indirect rule/ warrant chiefs
1945 – 1960 move to independence
Increased inter-ethnic tensions
Anti-state sentiment

13. History since Independence 1960
First Republic parliament dominated by North
1966 Military coup
1967 – 1970 Biafran Civil War
1975 another coup General Obasanjo sizes power
Second Republic new const. Federalism. Elections – President Shagari
Military Coup/1993 return to civilian rule Third Republic/ another coup!!
1993 – 1998 General Abacha

14. Biafran War – 1967 – 1970
1 million died
Secessionist attempt by southeastern tribes

15. Nigeria since Abacha
1998 Abacha dies; General Adubakar brings back civilian rule; parties allowed to form again
1999 Fourth Republic Obasanjo wins presidency; his party, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) wins assembly as well
2003 Pres. Obansanjo wins reelection
2007 April President Umara Yar’Adua (Adua) elected. PDP.

16. Political Culture Mass political culture Elite culture
Non-electoral participation
Political parties and elections
The elections of 1999
The elections of 2003
The elections of 2007
- The Elections of 2011 April

17. Political Culture Urban v. Rural; English v. non-English
Ethnic/ religious
Military rule, corruption create apathy
Democratic value at odds with traditional views (esp. rural)
Elite depend on government largess
Interventionist state
Prebendalism (ethnic-based clients)
But more western democratic

18. Political Activity Lively press – esp. in Fourth Republic
Radio, TV important
Youth movements
Some IGs – Transition Monitoring Group – monitored 2003 elections
Currently press in anti-corruption mode
AIDS a major challenge

19. Elections – 4 since 1999 Political Parties – multi-party 2 major
People’s Democratic Party (PDP) Obasanjo,
Liberalization of economy, e.g., privatized telephone company; conservative on social values
In power since 1999
All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP)
Northern/ conservative associated with Abacha years
Alliance for Democracy (AD)
progressive

20. Executive American style president 4 y term 2 term limit
National popular vote
President Umara Yar’Adua (PDP)
April died
Tradition of strong executive
Obasanjo
Yoruba, Christian,
Former military
YarAdua
Fulani, Muslim
Businessman

21. President Goodluck Jonathan
Takes over after Yar Adua’s death, May 2010
Wins presidential election April 2011

22. National Assembly of Nigeria
House of Representatives
Senate
360 members/ 4 y terms
Last election April 2011
First past the post
Single-member districts
PDP 223; ANPP 96
109 members/ 4 y terms
3 senators represent each of 36 states (plus one for capital Abuja)
First past the post
PDP 76; ANPP 27

23. Nigerian States - present
regions

24. Public Policy - Challenges
Democratization
History of strong executive: Obasanjo’s bid for 3rd term. Legislature challenging executive
Creation of INEC (Independent National Electoral Commission) 2002
Since 1999 tradition of elections. How free??
Relatively free press
Active though restricted judiciary
Economic development and structural adjustment policies
Oil revenues Rentier state
Debt relief – see Obasanjo’s 8/2000 letter
Population growth
Poverty and AIDS

25. Challenges cont. Legitimacy of government North v. South
National identity??
Sharia law in the north
Niger Delta violence
Evolving nature of federalism
Addressing corruption
Prebendalism (client/patron networks/ ethnic based)

26. Describe two features of the Nigerian political system that keep it from being considered fully democratic.