1. Problem Solving and Decision Making Skills
Achala Dahal
Nabin Chapagain
Nepal Administrative Staff College

2. Session Outline Problem /Problem Solving, Decision / Decision Making
Styles / Models of Decision Making
Factors affecting decision making
Ethical decision making
Rational Decision making process
Decision making tools
Traps in Decision Making

4. Triple Constraint Principle
Time
Cost
Problem
Performance
Something is a problem if:
It makes you LATE
It increases COST
It degrades PERFORMANCE

5. ANALYSE
Problem
Seen
Un Seen

6. Problem
“In a day, when you don’t come across any problems- you can be sure that you are traveling in a wrong path.”
Swami Vivekananda
A problem is a situation or a state of affairs that causes difficulties for people. It is also a gap between a current and a desired state. The gap may be viewed as the difference between 'what is' and 'what should be' or 'where we are' and 'where we want to be'.

7. A decision is one when there are different things you can do and you pick one of them.

8. Some are easy like…
Some are difficult like…

9. Lets choose….

10. A Month of Baishak

12. How a decision matter ?
Cable Car
Rope way

13. Importance of Decision Making
A key role of an officer
Whatever an officer does, he does through making decisions
No organisations can be run without making decisions
Carries long-term implications. Organisations grow or fail as a result of decisions made by its decision makers.
The wellbeing of an organisation depends almost entirely on the quality of its decisions.

14. “A Decision is a Judgment.”
Peter Drucker
INTUITION (Gut Feeling – past experience and personal values)
REASONING/JUDGEMENT (Facts and Figures)

15. Decision making
Combination of mental, physical and behavioral processes related to:
Rationale
Resources
Results
Resolution

18. Ice breaker….

19. Result levels of intuition
layers of psychology are exposed and implemented
strategic problem solving and decision-making.

20. Decision Making
Decision making is a cognitive process leading to the selection of a course of action among the alternatives, and enabling to act for producing desired results.
Decision making is a series of logical steps to reach at the agreement for moving forward.
Systematic response to a problem situation or forward moving through intelligence, understanding, analysis, rational logical selection, preparedness for implementation.
The art of determining in one's mind upon an opinion or course of action.

21. Decision Making A matter of choice Basic action of our life
Essence of managerial job
‘Wh’ Questions in every aspects of personal and professional life

22. Decision making- essence of managerial function

23. Decisions in Planning What are the organization’s long term goals?
What strategies best achieve these objectives?
What should the organization’s short term objectives be?
How difficult should individual goals be?

24. Decisions in Organizing
How many employees should I have report directly to me?
How much centralization should there be in the organization?
How should jobs be designed?
When should the organization implement a different structure?

25. Decisions in Leading
How do I handle employees who appear to be low in motivation?
What is the most effective leadership style in a given situation?
How will a specific change affect worker productivity?
When is the right time to stimulate conflict?

26. Decisions in Controlling
What activities in the organization need to be controlled?
How should those activities be controlled?
When is a performance deviation significant?
What type of management information system should the organization have?

27. Share any decision you have done at your workplace ?

28. Why decision matters ? What factors influences decision ?
Cognitive and personal biases
Emotional bias
Skills and competencies
Situational factors
Instrumental factors
Powers
Political
Legal, Social, Technological
Administrative
Muscle, Money…

29. Personality Influences on Decision Making
A long-studied typology of value orientations that affect decision making consists of the following types of decision maker: (Spranger).
The economic decision maker makes decisions based on what is practical and useful.
The aesthetic decision maker makes decisions based on form and harmony, desiring a solution that is elegant and in sync with the surroundings.
The theoretical decision maker wants to discover the truth through rationality.

30. The social decision maker emphasizes the personal impact of a decision and sympathizes with those who may be affected by it.
The political decision maker is interested in power and influence and views people and/or property as divided into groups that have different value.
The religious decision maker seeks to identify with a larger purpose, works to unify others under that goal, and commits to a viewpoint, often denying one side and being dedicated to the other.

31. Ethical Decision Making
An ethical dilemma is one in which a person has to choose between two options, both of which are morally correct but in conflict.
Ethical Dilemma_(360p).mp4

32. Any ethical dilemma situation you have encountered in your professional life ?

33. Ethical Framework for Decision Making - Dr. David Meelar
Five Sources of Ethical Standards for Decision Making
The Utilitarian Approach
The Rights Approach
The Fairness or Justice Approach
The Common Good Approach
The Virtue Approach

34. The Utilitarian Approach
The ethical action is the one that provides the greatest good for the greatest number. • Focuses on the consequences that actions or policies have on the well-being ("utility") of all persons reasonably foreseen to be directly or indirectly (but rather immediately) affected by the action or policy.

35. Right Based Approach
An important approach who focused on the individual's right to choose for herself or himself. According to this approach of decision making, what makes human beings different from mere things is that people have dignity based on their ability to choose freely what they will do with their lives, and they have a fundamental moral right to have these choices respected.
The ethical action is the one that most dutifully respects the rights of all affected.

36. The Fairness or Justice Approach The ethical action is the one that treats people equally, or if unequally, that treats people proportionately and fairly.
"equals should be treated equally and unequals unequally."

37. The Common Good Approach
The ethical action is the one that contributes most to the achievement of a quality common life together.
Our decisions are bound by the pursuit of common values and goals.

38. Virtue Approach
The ethical action is the one that embodies the habits and values of humans at their best.
Virtues are attitudes or character traits that enable us to be and to act in ways that develop our highest potential. They enable us to pursue the ideals we have adopted. Honesty, courage, compassion, generosity, fidelity, integrity, fairness, self-control, and prudence are examples of virtues
Virtues are like habits; that is, once acquired, they become characteristic of a person.

39. The utilitarian approach
Which option will produce the most good and do the least harm?
The rights approach
Which option best respects the rights of all stakeholders?
The fairness or justice approach
Which option treats people equally or proportionately?
The common good approach
Which option best serves the community as a whole, not just some members?
The virtue approach
Which option leads me to act as the sort of person I want to be?

40. Organizational Decisions :
1. Programmed and Non-programmed Decisions
Ill-structured
Type of Problem
Well-structured
Programmed
Decisions
Non-programmed
Decisions
Top
Level in Organization
Bottom
Programmed Decision
A decision that is repetitive and routine and can be made by using a definite, systematic procedure.
Non-programmed Decision
A decision that is unique and novel.

41. Models of decision making
DM Models
Use This Model When:
2. Rational
Information on alternatives can be gathered and quantified
Decisions are important
You are trying to maximize your outcome.
3. Bounded rationality
The minimum criteria are clear.
You do not have or you are not willing to invest much time to make the decision.
You are not trying to maximize your outcome

42. Models of decision making
DM Models
Use This Model When:
4. Intuitive
Goals are unclear.
There is time pressure and analysis paralysis would be costly.
You have experience with the problem.
5. Creative
Solutions to the problem are not clear.
New solutions need to be generated.
You have time to immerse yourself in the issues

43. Creative Decision Making Process
Understand the barriers to creative thinking
Exercise: Blocks to Creative Thinking

44. Interpretation
Scores ranging from in each respective block signifies that there is no or limited blocks regarding creative decision making.
Scores ranging from signifies a fair amount of creative decision making blocks.
Scores below 15 signifies that you are not open to thinking outside the box, you believe that there is one right answer to a problem, you fear being judged making the block for creative decision making higher.

45. Blocks to Creative Thinking
Perceptual Block
Seeing only what you expect to see
Stereotyping
Not recognizing problems
Not seeing the problem in perspective
Mistaking cause and effect

46. Blocks to Creative Thinking
Emotional Blocks
Fear of making mistakes or looking foolish
Impatience
Avoiding anxiety
Fear of taking risks
Need for order
Lack of challenge

47. Blocks to Creative Thinking
Environmental/Cultural Blocks
Management Style’
Lack of support
Expectations of Others
Unquestioning acceptance of the status quo
Fantasy and humor are not productive
Subjective judgments are unreliable
Taboos

48. Rational Decision Making Process
Issue or problem: agenda setting
Analysis of issue or problem: Interpretation, identification and understanding
SWOT ANALYSIS…
Designing alternatives
Examination/assessment of alternatives
Pre-decision phase
Problem Setting :
Separate fact from opinion and speculation
Avoid stating the problem as disguised solution
State the problem explicitly
Specify underlying causes
Identify what standard is violated by the problem

49. Re-decision phase Decision phase Post-decision phase
Ranking the alternatives
Determination
Choice
Preparedness for implementation
Action plan
Monitoring
Feedback
Evaluation
Re-decision phase
Acknowledging the lessons learnt
Reformed/improved decision making

50. Assumption of rational decision making
Problem clarity
Known options
Clear preference
Constant preference
Not time or cost constraints
Maximum pay off

51. Problems in Decision Making Real life Decision Makers must cope with:
Inadequate information about the nature of the problem and its possible solutions,
The lack of resources to acquire more complete information,
Distorted perceptions of the information available,
The inability of the human memory to retain large amount of information, and
The limits of their own intelligence to determine correctly which alternative is best. - Herbert Simon

52. Decision making tools Problem Restatement technique
SWOT analysis/ PEST analysis / Stakeholder analysis / Spolier analysis
Pareto principle: 80% of unfocussed effort generates only 20% of results. The remaining 80% of results are achieved with only 20% of the effort
Brainstorming/ Delphi Technique / Nominal Group Technique
Cause and effect
Cost benefit analysis
Six thinking Hat
 Problem Restatement Technique  Broaden our perspective of a problem, not to solve it  Help us identify the central issues & alternative solutions  Increase the chance that the outcome our analysis produces will fully, not partially, resolve the problem Decision Making Tools
50. II- SWOT Analysis: 1- Strength 2- Weaknesses 3- Opportunities 4- Threats Decision Making Tools
51. III- Pareto Principle: 80% of unfocussed effort generates only 20% of results. The remaining 80% of results are achieved with only 20% of the effort. Decision Making Tools
52. Decision Making Tools Individual Brainstorming: 1. Tends to develop fewer ideas, but takes each idea further 2. Can be risky for individuals. Valuable but strange suggestions may appear stupid at first sight. Group Brainstorming: 1. It is best for generating many ideas, but can be time consuming 2. Needs formal rules for it to work smoothly( Disagreements) 3. Group brainstorming sessions are usually enjoyable experiences, which are great for creating cohesion in a team IV- Brainstorming: No criticism of ideas, free rein is given to creativity
53. Decision Making Tools V- Cause& Effect VI- Porter’s 5 Forces:
54. VII- Cost Benefit Analysis: Cost/benefit analysis – evaluating quantitatively whether to follow a course of action. Add up the value of the benefits of a course of action and subtract the costs associated with it. Decision Making Tools
55. VII- Six Thinking Hats- Tools/ Framework Creative Positive Objective Feelings Negative Process Avoid confusion Parallel Thinking = cooperation

53. Six Thinking Hats- Team Decision Making

54. Six Thinking Hats- Team Decision Making

55. Six Thinking Hats- Team Decision Making

56. Six Thinking Hats- Team Decision Making meta - cognition

57. Modes of thinking - Let’s work on Group
Divide the participants into six groups
Each group have 20 minutes for group discussion
The discussion issue – “ The increasing rate of Officials not returning to service from higher education, training, visit etc.”
As a member of the organisation how would you deal with the problem to derive viable solution.
One participant from each group will present their group’s idea (s)(5 minutes for each participants)
Decide on the solution (5 minutes)

58. Benefits of Six Thinking Hats’ Method
Create awareness that there are multiple perspectives on the issue at hand
Convenient mechanism for “switching gears”
Rules for the game of thinking
Lead to more creative thinking
Improve communication
Improve decision making

59. Six Cs of Decision making
Construct: A clear picture of precisely what must be decided
Compile: A list of requirements that must be met
Collect: Information on alternatives that meet the requirements
Compare: Alternatives that meet the requirements
Consider: The “what might go wrong” factor with each alternative
Commit: To a decision and follow through with it.

60. Organizational Constraints:
Bounded Rationality
Limited time, information, resources to deal with complex, multidimensional issues
Decision/ Choice:
Search for a high quality decision alternative
Trade-off
Personal Constraints: Personal desire for prestige, Success, Personal Decision making style
Trade-off
Trade-off
Organizational Constraints:
Level of agreement, shared perspective, organizational culture and structure, ethical values
Trade-off
Source: Irving L. Janis, Crucial Decisions ( New York: Free press, 1989)

61. Personal trap in decision making
Not willing to come out of comfort zone
Fear and biasness in thinking and analysis
Getting lost in minutia
Seeking unanimous approval
Willing to decide beyond authority

62. System trap in decision making
Too little, inaccurate or wrong information
Overlook viable alternatives or waste time considering alternatives beyond realistic prospects
Not following the six Cs
Failure to clearly define the expected results
Worst of all, failure to reach a decision

63. “Maybe pushing on that wall to the left will give some space.”
System thinking is crucial
“Maybe pushing on that wall to the left will give some space.”

64. “Oops!”

65. Considerations Priority Ethics Standards Implementation
Teams and Network
Technicalities
Indecisiveness and Decline
Diversity
Risk propensity

67. “WE SELDOM HAVE TIME FOR THE IMPORTANT BECAUSE WE ARE WORKING
ON THE IMMEDIATE
AND THE IMMEDIATE IS
SELDOM THE IMPORTANT”
- Peter Drucker

68. “Think Laterally, and be creative.”