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ENSO-NAO interactions via the stratosphere

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1 ENSO-NAO interactions via the stratosphere
Sarah Ineson and Adam Scaife 2007 © Crown copyright 2007

2 Stratospheric response to El Niño
Hamilton, 1993 © Crown copyright 2007

3 Impact of 1940-42 El Niño on Europe
Brönnimann et al., 2004 © Crown copyright 2007

4 Stratosphere-troposphere link
Manzini et al, 2006 © Crown copyright 2007

5 Impact of El Niño on North Atlantic climate
January-February PMSL anomaly Moderate Strong Toniazzo and Scaife, 2006 © Crown copyright 2007

6 Experiment design L60 HadGAM1, 4-member ensemble, , observed SST ENSO years defined based on DJF Niño3 SST anomaly Warm years: 1965/66, 1972/73, 1982/83, 1986/87, 1991/92, 1997/98 Cold years: 1967/68, 1970/71, 1973/74, 1975/76, 1984/85, 1988/89, 1999/2000 El Niño (La Niña) composites are formed from warm (cold) years – neutral years Runs in progress – currently at 1995! © Crown copyright 2007

7 Model NH stratospheric response to QBO
u46 hPa 10°N -10°S z46 hPa +ve QBO -ve QBO © Crown copyright 2007

8 Model response to warm and cold ENSO composites
DJF geopotential height, Z, 46hPa Warm Cold © Crown copyright 2007

9 Model response to El Niño composites
Jan-Feb PMSL Jan-Feb T2m © Crown copyright 2007

10 DJF stationary eddy height anomaly 500hPa
Manzini et al., 2006 L60 HadGAM1 © Crown copyright 2007

11 DJF stationary height anomaly at 50°N
Manzini, 2006 © Crown copyright 2007 L60 HadGAM1

12 L38 HadGAM1 vs L60 HadGAM1 vertical resolution
© Crown copyright 2007

13 L60 - L38 HadGAM1 comparison DJF Z 46hPa composite for El Niño events, 1982/83, 1986/87, 1991/92 L60 HadGAM1 L38 HadGAM1 (climate resolution) © Crown copyright 2007

14 L60 - L38 HadGAM1 comparison Jan-Feb PMSL composite for El Niño events, 1982/83, 1986/87, 1991/92 © Crown copyright 2007

15 Summary Potential link for northern hemisphere winter ENSO – NAO interaction Ongoing experiments with L60 HadGAM1 show an infilling of the polar vortex and a negative NAO/AO signal associated with El Niño. Comparison between L60 and L38 HadGAM1 shows an enhanced lower stratospheric response in L60 HadGAM1. The tropospheric surface response differs between the models. Potential to increase capability for seasonal prediction for Europe in winter © Crown copyright 2007

16 Questions? © Crown copyright 2007

17 © Crown copyright 2007

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