1. Model to forecast re-immigration of Swedish-born persons
Christian Skarman
Forecast institute
Statistics Sweden

2. Migration 2

3. Migration 3

4. No data for Swedish-born persons living abroad4

5. Estimation is based on immigration, emigration and mortality data for the years 1850-2007

6. Emigrants 6

7. Emigrants
Immigrants 7

8. Emigrants
Immigrants 8

9. Swedish born persons abroad9

10. Swedish-born persons living abroad in 2007
Age 10

11. Percentages that has re-immigrated70 60 50 40 % 30
after 2 years 20 10
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Year of emigration 11

12. Percentages that has re-immigrated70 60 50 40 % 30
after 2 years 20
after 3 years 10
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Year of emigration 12

13. Percentages that has re-immigrated70 60
after 5 years 50 40 % 30
after 2 years 20
after 3 years 10
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Year of emigration 13

14. Percentages that has re-immigrated70 60
after 10 years
after 5 years 50 40 % 30
after 2 years 20
after 3 years 10
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Year of emigration 14

15. Economic cycle
Employed in thousands
Year 15

16. Re-immigration and economic cycle
Index over re-emigration rates
Employed in thousands
Index over re-emigration rates
Age
Year 16

17. Construction of the model
Year 17

18. Construction of the model
Year 18

19. Regression model 19

20. Risk-based re-immigration
Regression model
Risk-based re-immigration 20

21. Risk-based re-immigration The emigration 3 years earlier
Regression model
Risk-based re-immigration
and
The emigration 3 years earlier 21

22. Risk-based re-immigration The emigration 3 years earlier
Regression model
Risk-based re-immigration
and
The emigration 3 years earlier 22

23. Construction of the model
Year 23

24. Construction of the model
Year 24

25. Construction of the model
Year 25

26. Construction of the model
Year 26

27. The re-immigration model
Re-immigration risk are applied on the population of Swedish-born persons abroad
Number of re-immigrants are calculated
The new population of Swedish-born persons abroad are calculated by subtracting the re-immigrants and the deaths and adding the emigrants. 27

28. Swedish born persons abroad28

29. Re-immigration estimated by the model29

30. How did the first year go?30

31. How did the first year go?
Predicted immigration for 2009: 31

32. How did the first year go?
Predicted immigration for 2009:
Actual immigration for 2009: 32

33. Christian Skarman Forecast institute Statistics Sweden 33