1. City University of Seattle Msc in Project Management Cohort 2005 Master Thesis Presentation

2. Master Thesis Title: The Significance of Implementing a Well Organized Project Selection Methodology Using Multi-Criteria Analysis" Personal Information Last Name: Siskos First Name: Dimitrios Middle Name: Vasilios ID number: 20063511 Advisors Name: Dr Athanasios Spyridakos

3. Problem Statement Results in: 1.Failure to successfully control and complete projects 2.Failure to accomplish stakeholders expectations and finally: 1.Withdrawal from the projects implementation 2.Compensation penalties Lack of a systematic project selection methology

4. Literature Review 1.The importance of a capable project selection methodology Project Management Books IJPM Articles 2.Identification of the variables affecting projects selection Project Management Books 3.Recommended solution through project management strategies Project Management Books Software Manuals

5. The research is oriented to the concept: not doing projects right but doing the right projects Reyck et al (2005)

6. Methodologies and Procedures 1.Confirmation of the problem statement –The Questionnaire 2.Multicriteria Analysis –The steps in MCA –Connection to the problem statement 3.Solution of the problem –Application of the MCA steps –Risk incorporation into processes –Simulation using Crystal Ball –Selection of the Optimum Solution using OptQuest

7. Confirmation of the problem statement The Questionnaire –Remarkable Managers –Directors –Academic Professors The Results 1 See the Questionnaire

8. 2 Type of specificationBusiness Area ConstructingServicesDevelopmental-co Financed (EU) Academic Cost22,50%51%10%20% Schedule22,50%2,5%10%45% Performance16,25%6,5%0%20% Projects per year that getting failed to meet specifications 3

9. 4 Type of answerBusiness Area ConstructingServicesDevelopmental-co Financed (EU) Academic Yes50% No25%20%40%100% Not sure25%30%10% Satisfaction about the existing project selection methodologies used among organizations 5 Type of answerBusiness Area ConstructingServicesDevelopmental-co Financed (EU) Academic Yes75%100%50%100% No25%50% Intention to reject a profitable project if that considered to be very risky for the organization

10. Multicriteria Analysis MCA technique: –Makes recommendations on the process of budgeting –Selects the best practice –Provides feedback on project selection methods –Enhances the project selection process The steps in MCA: –Identify the problem to be addressed –Identify the targets to be judged –Identify the criteria –Weight the criteria in relevance to decision –Score the criteria in relevance to targets –Incorporate risk analysis –Produce multiple combinations –Select the appropriate solution –View the results –Evaluation and recommendations

11. MCA Connection to the problem statement Identify the criteria Weight the criteria in relevance to decision Score the criteria in relevance to targets the criteria Incorporate risk analysis Produce multiple combinations View the results Select the appropriate solution Evaluation and recommendations Identify the problem to be addressed All the candidate projects Parameters which influence projects success Weight the criteria according to how much each one influences the decision Score the criteria per project according to the extent each one satisfies decision percentage Which projects to select Run continuous simulations Select the right projects View the generated reports and evaluate the situation in a most realistic view Compare the results before and after applying the MCA process Incorporate appropriate risk distribution MCA StepsMCA impact to problem statement 12345 678910 Identify the targets to be judged

12. MCA Step – 1 What is the problem? Business Area: Constructing Eight possible projects Existing Data –(1) the expected revenue for each project if it is successful –(2) the multiple and different criteria which theirs scores impact success –(3) the estimated weighted project score for each project –(4) the initial investment required for each project –(5) the expected return and the expected profit for each project One Constraint –Available budget only $2.0 million (selecting all projects would require a total initial investment of $2.8 million) Target –Determine which projects to select to maximize the total expected profit while staying within the budget limitation See the table

13. MCA / Step 2 – How many are the candidate projects to execute and how will the manager decide? 8 Constructing Projects MCA / Step 3 – Identifying the criteria Profitability Resource availability Labor skills Perspectives Know how MCA / Step 4 – Weight the criteria in relevance to decision Criteria Weighting factor Profitability40% Resource availability10% Labor skills20% Perspectives20% Know how10%

14. MCA / Step 5 – Score the criteria in relevance to projects Each criterion is computed depending on the percentage that fulfills decision

15. MCA / STEP 6 – Incorporate risk analysis Resource Availability Minimum Extreme Distribution Labor skills Uniform Distribution Perspectives Pareto Distribution Know How Yes-No Distribution Allocate risk distributions into cells that represent criteria percentages values Profitability Normal Distribution

16. MCA / Step 7 – Produce multiple combinations Simulate using Crystal Ball software Select Project Portfolio using OptQuest tool $690.000<TP<$2.050.000 Selected Projects: 1,2,3,4,6,8 Rejected Projects: 5,7 Maximum TP=$1.148.000 MCA / Step 8 – Select the appropriate solution

17. MCA / Step 9 – View the results $250.000$230.0001 $650.000$370.0001 $250.000$146.0001 $500.000$553.0001 $700.000$00 $30.000$69.7501 $350.000$00 $70.000$101.2501 Total profit$1.470.000 Results coming out without incorporating risk into process Rejecting 5,7 TP=$1.470.000 Results coming out after incorporating risk into process Rejecting 5,7 TP=$1.148.000

18. MCA / Step 10 – Evaluation and Recommendations TYPE OF RESULTSelected ProjectsRejected ProjectsEstimated Total Profit (supposing the selected projects are 1,2,3,4,6,8) CATEGORIES Results coming out after applying MCA but without incorporating risk into process Not Known -Based on excel values Not Known -Based on excel values $1.470.000 The organization takes the wrong decision TYPE OF RESULTSelected ProjectsRejected ProjectsEstimated Total Profit CATEGORIES Results coming out after applying MCA and incorporating risk into process 1,2,3,4,6,8 - MCA technique - Risk analysis 5,7 - MCA technique - Risk analysis $1.148.000 The organization takes the right decision There is an accounting balance of $322.000 between the two last decisions TYPE OF RESULTSelected ProjectsRejected ProjectsEstimated Total Profit CATEGORIES Before applying MCA technique-Empirical -Randomly -Empirical -Randomly Unknown The organization takes a rough decision I. II. III.

19. Recommendations for Action Staffing a Project Portfolio Decision Team (PPDT) Recommendations for Dissemination Deliver a handbook –PPDT –Upper level management –Project members Recommendations for Additional Research and Study Survey that exacts results in relation to the Work Packages of the WBS Outcome: Better control of the portfolio per project Cost and schedule controlling will be applied in a higher level

20. Thank you!