1. Why Understanding Population is Necessary
Populations Perils
Why Understanding Population is Necessary
Jeff Cherry - KISD

2. Explosion?
Jeff Cherry - KISD

3. Or Implosion? From an elderly world, to possible extinction.
Jeff Cherry - KISD

4. Basic Global Demographics 7. 2 billion on earth in 2014. http://www
273 births per minute
16,020 an hour
392,714 births a day
143,341,000 births a year
2014 estimates
108 people die per minute
6,420 an hour die
155,505 a day die
56,759,000 deaths per year
A net global population gain of over 86.5 million annually
Jeff Cherry - KISD

5. Mental Map the world of Katy!
Include to the best of your ability:
Major roads, schools, places of business, shopping and restaurants
You have 10 minutes!!
With no devices or other aid, finish the rest of the map provided with your mental atlas!
Jeff Cherry - KISD

6. What is overpopulation?
Are we overpopulated?
What is overpopulation?
Overpopulation is essentially, too many people for the available resources.
Jeff Cherry - KISD

7. Where are we overpopulated?
LDC’s (Least Developed Countries)have difficulty overcoming the effects of too many people.
MDC’s (Most Developed Countries) are guilty of overconsumption of the world’s resources.
Jeff Cherry - KISD

8. Carrying Capacity How long can we sustain?
Carrying capacity is the world’s ability to support and sustain life. “sustainability”
Is this a global, regional, or local scale question?
It’s all three
How long can we sustain?
Jeff Cherry - KISD

9. What carrying capacity issues are at stake?
Jeff Cherry - KISD

10. Population growth has placed stress on environment, which:
Means more farms and erodes more soil
Means more fishing and depletes the oceans
Means more mining and consumes more minerals/fuels
Means more structures to builds while cutting and destroying forests and farm land (again)
All of this made more problematic by 4-fold population increases in the 20th century
And for context…only 30% of earth is land. Only fraction (1/3) of that is habitable/arable.
Jeff Cherry - KISD

11. So what does this really mean?
Meaning essentially only 10% of the earth is habitable, for an increasing population who wishes to live a highly consumable lifestyle across the planet.
Something’s gotta give!!
Jeff Cherry - KISD

12. Population Distribution
Jeff Cherry - KISD

13. An even better look
Jeff Cherry - KISD

14. Arithmetic Density
measures the number of people per unit or area (per Mile/km)
Jeff Cherry - KISD

15. Physiological Density
number of people per unit area of ARABLE land
Which type of density if most useful and accurate?
Jeff Cherry - KISD

16. Cartogram – showing uneven population distribution
Jeff Cherry - KISD

17. Total Fertility Rate (# of children per female)
Replacement 2.1
Current worldwide 2.5
MDC’s = LDC’s = 4.3
Rate of natural increase worldwide
1.2%
MDC’s
0.1%
LDC’s
2.4%
Jeff Cherry - KISD

18. What has the rate of growth looked like through history?
Jeff Cherry - KISD

19. The J curve
Jeff Cherry - KISD

20. Jeff Cherry - KISD

21. Industrial Revolution
Late 1700’s to early 1800’s in England.
Inventions and innovations led to machinery.
This led to factories being built using iron and coal.
Textiles (clothes) industry became mechanized.
Jeff Cherry - KISD

22. Industrial Revolution
This would lead to more people moving to the cities.
Better healthcare, sanitation, leads to longer life-expectancy.
People continued to have large families.
What’s the result?
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
Jeff Cherry - KISD

23. Thomas Malthus’ Prediction
British economist and minister predicted a population explosion.
Food will continue to increase arithmetically while population will increase exponentially.
Food = 4
Population 1+1=2 x 2=4 x 2=8
Jeff Cherry - KISD

24. Malthus and Carrying Capacity
Will population growth exceed the carrying capacity?
Who will be the winners, and who will be the losers?
Jeff Cherry - KISD

25. Demographic Transition Model
A process with several stages that societies go through that illustrates population growth and development.
Stage 1 – Low Growth
Stage 2 – High Growth
Stage 3 – Moderate Growth
Stage 4 – Low Growth
Stage 5 – No growth or declining population
Jeff Cherry - KISD

26. Jeff Cherry - KISD

27. Jeff Cherry - KISD

28. Can you figure out what stage?
Jeff Cherry - KISD

29. Jeff Cherry - KISD

30. Jeff Cherry - KISD

31. IMPLOSION – deaths exceeding births!
Will modernization spell the doom of some societies?
Many of the world’s countries are seeing below replacement levels (2.1 children per female) of population.
Jeff Cherry - KISD

32. Why are women having fewer children:
Later marriage
Delaying childbirth (these two are different)
Higher cost of raising children
Urbanization
Status of women
Higher education levels
Higher economic status
Germany Statistic – In 2008, 39% of German women had reached the age of 40 without having had a child
Jeff Cherry - KISD

33. Who is faced with implosive demographics today?
Russia -0.6% NIR
142 mill to 133 mill. In 2025
Germany -0.2% NIR
82.4 mill to 79 mill. In 2025
Italy 0.0% NIR
61 mill to 61 mill. In 2025
Japan -0.0% NIR
127.6 mill to mill. In 2025
Jeff Cherry - KISD

34. What are the risks of implosion?
The “graying” of the population.
A shrinking taxpayer base. Why?
How does migration and mobility effect the graying problem?
Jeff Cherry - KISD

35. The Future??
Conservative view is that the world’s population will see 9.5 billion by the year 2050.
We may then see a gradual leveling off.
10% of the world will be over 65 years old!
Jeff Cherry - KISD

36. Health and Population Dynamics
Jeff Cherry - KISD