1. Construction of nature reserves
Program WORLDMAP
Input data:
Species diversity
Cost of unit area
Presence of other species, ……..

2. Measures of diversity Number of species
Number of species from predefined group (selective richness)
Range centers
Subtree length – phylogenetical coverage

3. Measures of rarity
Range size rarity – count species with limited range
Range centers

4. Spatial turnover
Range edges
Spatial heterogeneity

5. Construction of nature reserves
Hotspots
Complementarity areas
Minimizing costs
Comparison with random selection

7. Population viability analysis (PVA)

8. What is PVA
Analysis of all possible factors affecting survival of a species/population and assessment of probability of recovery in a given time period

9. What affects population viability
Demographic stochasticity
Environmental stochasticity
Catastrophes/Disturbances
Genetic processes

10. Parts of PVA Local population dynamics
Number of populations and spatial position
Population sizes
Carrying capacity
Frequency and effect of catastrophes
Effects of inbreeding
Migration
Occurrence of suitable unoccupied habitats

11. Types of models Precision of information Spatial and temporal scale
Studied parameter (individual, population…)

12. Precision of information

13. Information on local population dynamics
Complete population dynamics
Only population growth rate and its variations
Relationship to individual life span

14. Information on inbreeding depression
Sensitivity of the species
Affected fitness components
Relationship between degree of inbreeding and fitness – shape of the relationship
Reproductive system

15. Other complicating factors
Density dependence
Source-sink dynamics

16. Density dependence

17. Density dependence
Sources of density dependence
Predation
Researchers

18. Source-sink dynamics
Population size vs. local population growth rate

19. Studied parameter Types of models
Individual-based – follow individuals
Matrix-based – follow numbers of individuals
Models following gene flow

20. Spatial scale Single local population Regional scale
Total range of species

21. Precision x possibility to generalize
Amount of information in the model
Generality of the model
Realism of the conclusions

22. Comparing results of PVA
Sensitivity analysis

23. Sensibility of PVA
Quantitative predictions vs. summarization of information
Summarization of information on local population dynamics
Identification of types of endangerment
Assessment of effect of endangerment
Comparison of different scenarios

24. Reliability of predictions

25. Predictions of local dynamics
Capricorn silvereye, Zosterops lateralis chlorocephalus,
Brook & Kikkawa 1998

26. Reliability of predictions
Brook et al. 2000, summary of 21 PVA’s

27. Reliability of predictions
Brook et al. 2000, summary of 21 PVA’s

29. Threshold response
Territorial mammal - simulations, Lande 1987

30. Threshold response
Pulliam 1992