1. LAMAS Working Group 10-12 December 2014
Agenda Item 3.4 TF Flow statistics – progress report

2. TF Flow statistics
Current status of discussion; details still to be clarified
Agreed aim: initial flows estimates produced by Eurostat
based on a standard method
applied to the sets of microdata held by Eurostat
using only LFS information available at Eurostat
with all the work possible at and done by Eurostat
Methodological information allowing Member States to explain possible differences between the Eurostat flows estimates and nationally produced ones  

3. TF Flow statistics – main conclusions
Initial flows estimates (short-term, in 2015):
Target age group: 15-74
Longitudinal sample: persons traceable in Eurostat datasets
Quarterly (i.e. quarter-on-quarter) flows
Weighting: for 3x3 transition matrices, consistency with marginal distributions employed, unemployed, inactive in underlying quarters (as far as possible – see following example)

4. TF Flow statistics – main conclusions
Weighting example:
Transition matrix after initial calibration to marginal distribution target quarter (15-74, in 1,000)
Real values
Correction
From\To E U I
initial quarter
3401.7
38.6
16.3
3456.6
3475.8
102.7
1218.1
18.5
1339.3
1342.3 27
23.4
3295.2
3345.6
3336.6
3323.4
3531.4
1280.1
3330
Total population target quarter
8141.5
Total population intial quarter
8154.7
Difference
-13.2

5. TF Flow statistics – main conclusions
Weighting example:
Transition matrix after iterative raking (15-74, in 1,000)
From\To E U I
3412.9
40.7
21.6
3475.2 98
1220.9
23.3
1342.2
20.4
18.6
3285
3324
3531.3
1280.2
3329.9

6. TF Flow statistics – main conclusions
Initial flows estimates (short-term, in 2015):
Rates and levels
Individual country results
Prior information about results:
Task Force level: January 2015
All countries: March 2015

7. TF Flow statistics – main conclusions
Dissemination Eurostat website (short-term, in 2015):
Aggregated level (transition matrices)
Main table: 3x3 transition matrices for 15-74, by sex
Further tables: 3x3 transition matrices for 10-year age groups, by sex
Reliability and empty cell issues (in particular for the second group/small longitudinal samples)

8. TF Flow statistics – main conclusions
Further medium- to long-term tasks:
Seasonal adjustment of quarterly flows
Yearly flows (time difference 12 months)
Weighting improvements (e.g. for big population changes)
Treatment of panel attrition
Longitudinal microdata
Flows vs. econometric modelling
Criteria for precision of flows estimates

9. TF Flow statistics – main conclusions
Additional issues identified by the TF:
Certain flows are not covered: mobility (across borders)
Anonymised microdata: allow tracking of respondents?
Immediate request to further countries producing flows estimates: overview table…

10. The LAMAS working group is asked to
take note of the Task Force work and its current conclusions,
comment on and support the proposals made,
agree on the way forward including distribution of example results to prepare publication of flow statistics for individual countries after the mid-2015 LAMAS meeting.