1. EDUCATION AND CONFLICT ANALYSIS

2. EDUCATION: no business as usual
Education programs must:
Understand their two-way interaction with conflict
Adapt to the conflict context
Address unique challenges
Avoid worsening conflict factors
How can we do this?
Conflict Analysis
3 December 2018
USAID ECCN

3. Education assessment: PURPOSE
Analyzes the impact of an emergency or crisis on education for children, youth, and families
Determines locations, population groups, and communities most severely affected
Identifies existing resources and capacities of the education system
Identifies educational priorities that require external assistance.
3 December 2018
USAID ECCN

4. Education assessment: Structure (1)
Context of the education sector
Enrollment, internal efficiency out-of-school children/youth
Cost and financing
Quality and management
External efficiency
Equity
UNESCO Education Analysis Methodological Guidelines Volume 1, 2013
3 December 2018
USAID ECCN

5. Education assessment: Structure (2)
Analysis, participation, and coordination
Access and learning environment
Teaching and learning
Teachers and other education personnel
Education policy
INEE Guidance on Conflict Sensitive Education
3 December 2018
USAID ECCN

6. Conflict analysis: Overview
Systematic analysis of:
General context (multidimensional snapshot)
Causes of conflict: Root causes, intermediate causes, triggers, and effects
Stakeholders (needs, interests, and positions)
Sources of resilience and cohesion
Conflict dynamics (connectors, dividers, and future scenarios)
3 December 2018
USAID ECCN

7. Conflict analysis principles
It is not neutral, not an end in itself, not a one-off exercise.
Aim for “good enough.”
The team impacts reliability and credibility.
Local knowledge and information is paramount.
Engage the widest range of stakeholders.
Integrate gender throughout. 

Conflict analysis is not a neutral activity and itself must be conflict sensitive.
The goal of a conflict analysis is not perfection, but being “good enough” for the purposes for which it will be used. A cumbersome conflict analysis exercise can daunt staff from utilizing it again.
Those carrying out the data collection and analysis directly impact the reliability and credibility of the final product. Local knowledge and information is paramount, and sensitivity to local culture is crucial. 

Analysis must be based on information from a full range of stakeholders. 

Gender perspectives should be integrated into a conflict analysis process throughout. 

Conflict analysis is not an end in itself—its real value is informing strategies and programs, including theories of change and results frameworks, as well as management decisions. 

Conflict analysis is not a one-off exercise—it should be updated and drawn upon continually by organizations, including to assess conflict sensitivity.
3 December 2018
USAID ECCN

8. Conflict analysis: causal analysis
Triggers: Single key acts or events that set off or escalate violent conflict
Intermediate causes: More current factors that aggravate grievance and tension
Root causes: Pervasive factors built into policies, structures, and fabric of society that drive grievance
What are structural causes of conflict?
eg illegitimate government, lack of political participation, lack of equal economic and social opportunities, inequitable access to natural resources, poor governance.
What issues can be considered as proximate causes of conflict?
eg uncontrolled security sector, light weapons proliferation, human rights abuses, destabilising role of neighboring countries, role of diasporas.
What triggers can contribute to the outbreak / further escalation of conflict?
eg elections, arrest / assassination of key leader or political figure, drought, sudden collapse of local currency, military coup, rapid change in unemployment, flood, increased price/scarcity of basic commodities, capital flight.
3 December 2018
USAID ECCN

9. Conflict analysis: dynamics
Dividers and connectors: factors that separate or bring together people
Sources of resilience and cohesion
Stakeholder analysis: interests, needs, positions and relationships
Conflict trends and future scenarios
What are structural causes of conflict?
eg illegitimate government, lack of political participation, lack of equal economic and social opportunities, inequitable access to natural resources, poor governance.
What issues can be considered as proximate causes of conflict?
eg uncontrolled security sector, light weapons proliferation, human rights abuses, destabilising role of neighboring countries, role of diasporas.
What triggers can contribute to the outbreak / further escalation of conflict?
eg elections, arrest / assassination of key leader or political figure, drought, sudden collapse of local currency, military coup, rapid change in unemployment, flood, increased price/scarcity of basic commodities, capital flight.
3 December 2018
USAID ECCN

10. Conflict analysis: methods
Desk studies
Key informant interviews
Focus groups
Public opinion surveys
Crowd sourcing
Validation workshop
Desk studies: Existing analyses, academic reports, media archives, histories, program reports, NGO reports, etc. (See Section II: Preparation above.)
Key informant interviews of a range of well-informed people representing different perspectives and constituencies. This is discussed in full below.
“Person-on-the-street” interviews with members of the general public (including those outside of the capital city or major urban areas, if at all possible). This is similar to key informant interviews, but the people are chosen at random in public.
Analysis workshop. In some circumstance, it is possible to organize a one- or two- day workshop in which the participants engage in a participatory conflict analysis process. This approach is particularly useful for generating dialogue among different kinds of people regarding the nature and causes of conflict. However, this can be risky if the groups are not prepared to talk with one another—in which case separate parallel workshops might work. This approach requires skilled facilitation.
Focus groups with either cross - cutting groups or groups that bring a certain perspective (IDPs, diaspora, opposition leaders, women, youth, religious leaders, etc.). Focus groups allow for interaction and discussion, often resulting in a deeper understanding, even where there is disagreement among participants. A lot has been written on how to organize and conduct focus groups. This approach also requires skilled facilitation. [References?]
Public opinion surveys. In some circumstances, it will be important to determine the extent to which an attitude or perception is shared in the public—and the main tool for doing that is a social science or public opinion survey. This process takes specific skills and funding, and is therefore rarely used for conflict analysis. (It may be used to track trends and changes in a monitoring system, if the resources are available, however.)
Crowd sourcing using mobile phone and internet technologies is emerging as a useful tool for generating information to be analyzed along with other data sets. Various groups are experimenting with gathering information from cell phone users
Facts, feelings, forecasts (USAID)
3 December 2018
USAID ECCN

11. EDUCATION and conflict analysis
General snapshot of overall context—political, economic, social, security, etc.
Analysis of overall education system
Analysis of causes and dynamics of conflict, and how education interacts with them
Identification of sources of resilience and cohesion in education system and communities
3 December 2018
USAID ECCN

12. EDUCATION and conflict analysis
How conflict affects education systems, learners, households, and communities:
Attacks on schools, teachers, staff, and learners
Schools occupied by armed groups
Death and injury to learners, teachers, staff, and families
Displacement
Inequitable access to education by groups and regions
Discriminatory or biased curriculum
Biased allocation of educational resources
Violence in and around schools
3 December 2018
USAID ECCN

13. EDUCATION and conflict analysis
How education affects conflict causes, dynamics:
Inequitable access to education by groups and regions
Discriminatory or biased curriculum and materials
Biased allocation of educational resources
No provision of education in minority languages
Violence in schools
3 December 2018
USAID ECCN

14. EDUCATION and conflict analysis
Sources of resilience and cohesion in education systems, learners, and communities:
Nondiscriminatory curriculum and materials
Equitable access
Provision of education in minority languages
Teacher professional development for violence reduction and conflict resolution
Reduction of violence around schools
Active school-PTA and school-community mechanisms
3 December 2018
USAID ECCN

15. Existing guidance and tools
USAID - Global Partnership for Education Integrating Conflict and Fragility Analysis into Education System Analysis Guidelines
World Bank Resilience in Education Systems (RES360)
USAID Rapid Education and Risk Analysis (draft)
3 December 2018
USAID ECCN