1. COSMO General Meeting 2009 WG5 Parallel Session 7 September 2009
Results of the operational verification at MeteoSwiss in the year Francis Schubiger, Pirmin Kaufmann, Christophe Hug MeteoSwiss
COSMO General Meeting 2009
WG5 Parallel Session 7 September 2009

2. Verification of COSMO-2 & COSMO-7
Operational:
Surface (3h-steps SYNOP and 1h-steps SMN [Swiss Met Net])
psred, ps, T2m, Td2m, 10m-wind, cloud cover, 12h-precipitation, gusts (since July 09: monitoring of the different components)
Upper-air (TEMP)
T, F, RH, wind
Ongoing in experimental modus:
windprofiler Payerne and Schaffhausen
Precipitation with RADAR (fuzzy verification, Ebert’s package) also weather-type dependant
Fluxes at Payerne
New / Next developments:
Global radiation at swiss stations and with gridded data from CM-SAF
VAD (locations of swiss radars)
=> All these packages will be replaced by VERSUS 2

3. T2m: mean diurnal cycle (first 24h forecasts)
OBS
COSMO-7
OBS
COSMO-7
COSMO-2
domain COSMO Spring 2009
domain COSMO Spring 2009
domain COSMO Summer 2009
domain COSMO Summer 2009

4. T2m: statistical coeff. Winter 08/09
bias
COSMO-2
COSMO-7
mean abs error
std dev

5. T2m: statistical coeff. Spring 09
bias
COSMO-2
COSMO-7
mean abs error
std dev

6. T2m: statistical coeff. Summer 09
bias
COSMO-2
COSMO-7
mean abs error
std dev

7. T2m: bias COSMO-7 (all stations)
Autumn 08
Winter 08/09
Spring 09
Summer 09

8. 10m-wind: bias COSMO-7 Spring 2009 +15 to +24h forecasts

9. 10m-wind: bias COSMO-7 Spring 2009 (+24h of all 3-hourly forecasts)

10. 10m-wind: bias COSMO-2 Spring 2009 (+24h of all 3-hourly forecasts)

11. Precipitation: frequency bias for 1 mm/12h
COSMO-7
Summer 2009

12. Precipitation: frequency bias COSMO-2 & COSMO-7
FBI (0.1mm/12h)
FBI (10 mm/12h)
Spring 09
COSMO-2
COSMO-7
Summer 08

13. Precipitation [mm/12h]: frequency bias [in %] (1)
threshold
mod/domain
08S3
08S4
09S1
09S2
09S3
7_all
104
100
119
114
103
7_alps
116
120
151
136
113
0.1 mm
7_CH
112
134
159
145
2_alps 88
141
129 94
2_CH
101
133
146
109 93 95
102 91
123 99
1.0 mm
126
170
130 83
115
140
124 89 96
127
161
147

14. Precipitation [mm/12h]: frequency bias [in %] (2)
threshold
mod/domain
08S3
08S4
09S1
09S2
09S3
7_all 66 77 91 78 65
7_alps 70 93
120
102
5 mm
7_CH
108
153
124
2_alps 81
105
131
123 82
2_CH 90
157
147 55 71 54 58
100 94 60
10 mm 68
146
107 63 85
106
128 98
155
143 96

15. Precipitation [mm/12h]: frequency bias [in %] (3)
threshold
mod/domain
08S3
08S4
09S1
09S2
09S3
7_all 48 56 38 40 34
7_alps 54 58 42 49 41
30 mm
7_CH 63 72 26 80 44
2_alps 93 92 79 98 87
2_CH
120
119 65 84 86 77 95
123
109 73 88
111
134
131 89 97
128
138
147
Summary: mean bias

16. Verification of surface weather parameters
2m-temperature:
cold bias in winter (reduced as compared to earlier winters)
positive bias during nighttime (except winter)
10m-windspeed:
negative bias along the coast and on mountains, positive bias inland
total cloudiness:
mean daily cycle not well represented, partial coverage underestimated
precipitation:
underestimation in Summer (25% COSMO-7, 10% COSMO-2) and overestimation in Winter/Spring (18% COSMO-7, 30% COSMO-2)
higher amounts in COSMO-2 / higher amounts over Alpine area
low amounts (0.1 mm/12h): overestimated in Winter (over the Alps)
high amounts (10 mm/12h): underestimated in COSMO-7

17. Verification windspeed COSMO-7 all stations Winter 08/09
+0h
+24h
+48h
+72h

18. Verification windspeed COSMO-7 Payerne Winter 08/09
+0h
+24h
+48h
+72h

19. Verification temperature COSMO-7 all stations Winter 08/09

20. Verification wind speed (+24h) Payerne Winter 08/09
COSMO-2
COSMO-7

21. Verification temperature (+24h) all stations (COSMO-2 domain) Spring 09

22. Verification with vertical profiles: main results
temperature: cold bias (of ~ 0.5 K) last Autumn and especially Winter from ground up to 300 hPa
windspeed: positive bias in PBL (up to +1.5 m/s) and slight negative bias (up to -0.5 m/s) above 400 hPa

23. Wind: gusts
COSMO-LEPS meteogram for Zürich of UTC with COSMO-7 (blue) and OBS (black dashed)
overestimation of convective gusts ?

24. Windgusts (gridscale, convective)
COSMO-7 forecast

25. gusts (opr-MCH) @ gridpoint Zurich
OBS
COSMO-7

26. gusts (opr-DWD) @ gridpoint Zurich

27. gusts (convective) @ gridpoint Zurich

28. gusts (Brasseur) @ gridpoint Zurich

29. Wind: gusts
COSMO-LEPS meteogram for Zürich of UTC with COSMO-7 (blue) and OBS (black dashed)

30. Windgusts (gridscale, convective)
COSMO-7 forecast

31. Wind: gusts
COSMO-LEPS meteogram for Zürich of UTC with COSMO-7 (blue) and OBS (black dashed)

32. gusts (opr-MCH) @ gridpoint Zurich
COSMO UTC h
OBS
COSMO-7

33. gusts (gridscale) @ gridpoint Zurich

34. gusts (convective) @ gridpoint Zurich

35. gusts (opr-DWD) @ gridpoint Zurich

36. gusts (Brasseur) @ gridpoint Zurich

37. Summary for convective gusts
convective gusts strongly overestimated in some cases
high convective gusts possible with low amounts of precipitation
convective precipitation possible with no convective gusts
-> need for a better calibration („tuning“) of the convective gusts