1. Centro EuroMediterraneo per i cambiamenti climatici
A Global Challenge
Antonio Navarra
INGV
Centro EuroMediterraneo per i cambiamenti climatici

2. The Climate System Atmosphere Oceans Precipitation Evaporation Sea Ice
Biosphere
Run-off
Soil Moisture

3. A scientific consideration of climate (I)
Crucial experiments like the famous experiment of Michelson e Morley are not possible in climate science
How is it possible a scientific investigation of climate ?

4. A scientific consideration of climate (II)
We can male experiments if we represent the climate system via a set of mathematical relations: the equation of climate.
The equation of climate are very difficult, but they can be solved by numerical methods.
We can then treat very complex mathematical equations, paying the price of a enormous number of elementary operations.

5. The next generation of numerical models will be like new, more powerful, telescopes or particle accelerators and they will allow us to look further into the working of the Earth climate more accurately, extensively and reliably.

6. Euro Mediterranean
Center
for Climate Change

7. Grids for Earth
Sort of crowded
at the pole

8. T106 INGV-IPCC run resolution (~ 120Km)
T42 IPCC standard resolution (~ 300Km)

9. Next INGV-CMCC model resolution (~ 60Km)
T106 INGV-IPCC run resolution (~ 120Km)

10. Scenarios
N2O
CO2
CH4

11. Surface Temperature Differences JAS
( minus )

12. Precipitation Differences JAS
( minus )

13. Projected sea level change is not globally uniform
Stippled areas >1 sd. More agreement than in TAR, but less agreement than for temperature.
Sea level change due to ocean density and circulation change during 21st century ( relative to ) under A1B, average of 16 AOGCMs, shown relative to global mean. Spatial variation is about 25% of global mean.

14. The Structure of the CMCC
Climate Research
Numerical Methods
Software Development
Numerical Simulations
Agricultural Impacts: Forests
Impacts: Energy and Economy
Agricultural Impacts: Crops
Impacts: Mediterranean Sea
Impacts: Health
Impacts: The Coastal Zone

15. CIRCE Climate Change and Impact ResearCh:
the Mediterranean Environment
An FP6 Project of the European Union
Chair: Antonio Navarra and Laurence Tubiana

16. The project will investigate how global and Mediterranean climates interact, how the radiative properties of the atmosphere and the radiative fluxes vary, the interaction between cloudiness and aerosol, the modifications in the water cycle.
The economic and social consequences of climate change shall be evaluated by analyzing direct impacts on migration, tourism and energy markets together with indirect impacts on the economic
system. CIRCE will moreover investigate the consequences on agriculture, forests and ecosystems, human health and air quality. The variability of extreme events in the future scenario and their
impacts will be assessed.
The integrated results discussed by the project CIRCE will be presented in the first Regional Assessment of Climate Change in the Mediterranean area.

17. CIRCE Strategy
Impacts
Climate Dynamics
Policy
Social Dynamics
Case Studies

18. What can we do ? Mitigation:
remove the causes of climate change, i.e. emissions
Adaptation:
prepare for the coming climate change

20. Mitigazione e Adattamento, Entrambi necessari, Entrambi limitati
Mucche olandesi, dopo l’adattamento
Mitigazione e Adattamento,
Entrambi necessari,
Entrambi limitati

21. Elements for Post-Kyoto Regime
Effective – Capable of realizing significant emission reduction
Empowering – Allowing emerging countries to continue their development path
Fair – Recognizing the historical responsibility of mature economies
Shared – A large societal consensus is needed to implement effectively the policies

22. Coalition Building

23. General Social Survey USA (I)
86% - Satisfied of their job
76% - Satisfied of their income
62% - Expect their position to improve within the next three years
65% - Over all satisfied of their lives

24. General Social Survey USA (II)
25% - Think the country is not “on the right track”
80% - Think the Congress has accomplished nothing
60% - Expect next generation will be worst off

25. There is a private-public happiness gap
US citizens ( probably typical of other countries) are happy with their lives, but they feel the threat of outside forces beyond their control (climate change, terrorism, credit crisis) and they are doubt of the government capability to handle them effectively
There is a private-public happiness gap

26. Is it possible to define a policy addressing these demands ?
In this situation the demand on policymakers is to devise a policy to tackle with determination these large problems, but without touching the sphere of private satisfaction of the individual.
Is it possible to define a policy addressing these demands ?

27. Optimists
But Concerned