1. Professor John Ratcliffe, Dr Ela Krawczyk, Dr Ruth Kelly
Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making 28th- 29th September 2006
FTA and the City: Imagineering Sustainable Urban Development
Professor John Ratcliffe, Dr Ela Krawczyk, Dr Ruth Kelly
The Futures Academy, DIT, Ireland

2. THE CONTEXT Earth biosphere and technosphere systems in peril
FTA and the City
THE CONTEXT
Earth biosphere and technosphere systems in peril
Global cities in profound transition
Accelerating process of urbanisation
Complexity of urban and regional systems
Need for vision and imagineering

3. CONTEMPORARY CITY PLANNING
FTA and the City
CONTEMPORARY CITY PLANNING
Past planning Failures
Failure of the planning professions
Failure of governance
Failure of business

4. PRESENT PLANNING PROBLEMS
FTA and the City
PRESENT PLANNING PROBLEMS
Change, complexity and uncertainty
Lack of an integrated approach
Short-term orientation
Obsolescence of the ‘predict and provide’ model
Limited collaboration of stakeholders

5. CHARTING AND NAVIGATING THE CITY TECHNOSPEHERE
FTA and the City
CHARTING AND NAVIGATING THE CITY TECHNOSPEHERE
City Capital as the basis for developing
a strategic agenda
Type of City Capital
Intellectual and Social Capital
Democratic Capital
Cultural Capital
Environmental Capital
Technical Capital
Financial Capital

6. PLANNING VERSUS FUTURES
FTA and the City
PLANNING VERSUS FUTURES
Traditional Planning
Futures Approach
Perspective
Partial, ‘everything else being equal’.
Overall, ‘nothing else being equal’.
Variables
Quantitative, objective, known.
Qualitative, subjective, hidden.
Relationships
Statistical, stable structures.
Dynamic, emerging structures.
Explanation
The past explains the present.
The future is the raison d’etre of the present.
Picture of Future
Simple and certain.
Multiple and uncertain.
Method
Deterministic and quantitative models.
Qualitative, behavioural and stochastic models.
Attitude to the future
Passive or adaptive (the future will be).
Active and creative (the future is shaped).
Differences between traditional planning and futures approach (Lindgren & Bandhold, 2003)

7. FUTURES-ORIENTED THINKING THROUGH CITY PROSPECTIVE
FTA and the City
FUTURES-ORIENTED THINKING THROUGH CITY PROSPECTIVE
City Prospective Through Scenarios
Prospective and the Preferred Future
Strategic Foresight Activity
Scenarios for Cities
Prospective Through Scenarios

8. THE PROSPECTIVE PROCESS
FTA and the City
THE PROSPECTIVE PROCESS
Identification of driving forces of change
Determination of main issues and trends shaping the future
Clarification of the level of impact and degree of uncertainty
Establishment of scenario logics
Creation of different scenario stories
Exploration of the future
Formulation of the problem / strategic question
Identification of the main actors present on the scene
Recognition of factors responsible for the current situation
Identification of the key-issues characteristic for the present state
Understanding of interactions between actors and factors
Understanding of the past and present
Generating policy proposals and suggestions for action
Development of indicators to measure the progress
Identification of bodies responsible for action
Development of mechanisms for revising the vision and generating new suggestions in order to respond to changing conditions
Recommendations and suggestion for the implementation of the vision
Generation of ideas what is desirable
Agreeing a vision of the desired future shared by all stakeholders and sections of society
Development of the most desirable future vision

9. THE INTELLIGENT CITY Motivation for ICT and FTA
FTA and the City
THE INTELLIGENT CITY
Motivation for ICT and FTA
FTA and the Urban Question
FTA can be used to discern the broader spatial or territorial implications of ICT growth.
Broader Spatial and
Territorial Dimensions

10. THE WAY FORWARD? Gaia and FTA? A Unified Theory of Sustainable Cities
FTA and the City
THE WAY FORWARD?
Gaia and FTA?
Gaia is a precise statement of the systematic
Interaction of the organic and inorganic elements
of Biosphere. It tolerates free agency, assumes an
Adaptive relationship between agents and their
Environment, yet allows the limits to adaptation to
be calculated and forecast.
A Unified Theory of Sustainable Cities
Can a Unified Theory of Sustainable Cities be
formulated using Futures-Oriented Technology
Assessment, thereby, ‘imagineering the future
of Sustainable urban development?

11. Thank you for your attention!
FTA and the City
Thank you for your attention!
Dr Ela Krawczyk,
The Futures Academy, Dublin Institute of Technology