2. OSOBINE LM krive Jednačine l(r) = a – lr k(Y)=k*Y LM= k*Y+l(r) PONUDA
ŠPEKULATIVNA TRAŽNJA
PONUDA
TRANSAKCIONA TRAŽNJA

3. LM – rast osetljivosti L na kamatnu stopu
LM – rast ponude novca
ŠPEKULATIVNA TRAŽNJA
PONUDA
TRANSAKCIONA TRAŽNJA
slide 2

4. LM – smanjena brzina opticaja, rast k
LM – rast ponude novca
ŠPEKULATIVNA TRAŽNJA
PONUDA
TRANSAKCIONA TRAŽNJA
slide 3
slide 3

5. LM – rast ponude novca ŠPEKULATIVNA TRAŽNJA PONUDA
TRANSAKCIONA TRAŽNJA

6. IS LM

7. Opšta ravnoteža LM A i* IS IS LM Linija finansijske integracije
Kamatna stopa IS
Output

8. Figure 11.12 r 2 1 Y Output Smanjenje egzogenih poreza izaziva
rast dohotka c. oba događaja se simultano dešavaju
rast kamatne stope d. ne raste nijedna varijabla r 2 1 Y
Figure 11.12
Output

9. r 2 1 Y Pad novčane ponude izaziva
rast dohotka c. oba događaja se simultano dešavaju
rast kamatne stope d. ne raste nijedna varijabla r 2 1 Y

10. r 1 2 Y Rast ponude novca izaziva rast
kamatne stope c. obe promenljive
investicija d. nijedne promenljive r 1 2 Y

11. r 2 1 Y Rast javnih nabavki povećava
kamatnu stopu c. oba događaja se simultano dešavaju
investicije d. ne raste nijedna varijabla r 2 1 Y

12. Što je manja osetljivost tražnje za novcem na kamatnu stopu, to će rast ponude novca više
povećavati BDP c. izazivati obe promene
smanjivati kamatnu stopu d. ne izazivaju nijednu od opisanih promena r 2 1 Y

13. Brzo uravnoteženje na tržištu novca znači da se privreda nalazi na
IS krivi c. na obe
LM krivi d. ni na jednoj od njih

14. r 2 1 Y Ekspanzivna fiskalna politika izaziva
rast dohotka c. oba događaja se simultano dešavaju
pad investicija d. ništa se od toga ne dešava r 2 1 Y

15. Kada je marginalna sklonost potrošnji visoka,
IS kriva je strma c. LM kriva je strma
IS kriva je ravna d. LM kriva je ravna

16. Kada je osetljvost investicija na promenu dohotka visoka,
IS kriva je strma c. LM kriva je strma
IS kriva je ravna d. LM kriva je ravna

17. Visoka poreska stopa znači da je
IS kriva strma c. LM kriva strma
IS kriva ravna d. LM kriva ravna

18. Mandel-Flemingov model
Ključna pretpostavka: mala otvorena privreda sa savršenom mobilnošću kapitala.
r = r*
Ravnoteža na tržištu robe ---IS* kriva:
In this and the following sections (in which we analyze policies with the M-F model), we assume the price level is fixed---just as we did when we first used the closed economy IS-LM model to do policy analysis in Chapter 11.
As we learned in Chapter 5, NX depends on the real exchange rate. However, with price levels fixed, the real & nominal exchange rates move together. So, for simplicity, we write NX as a function of the nominal exchange rate here.
(At the end of this chapter, when we use M-F to derive the aggregate demand curve, we go back to writing NX as a function of the real exchange rate, because the nominal & real exchange rates may behave differently when the price level is changing.)
Chapter 5 introduced the notation r* for the world interest rate, and explained why r = r* in a small open economy with perfect capital mobility.
Perfect capital mobility means that there are no restrictions on the international flow of financial capital: the country’s residents can borrow or lend as much as they wish in the world financial markets; and because the country is small, the amount its residents borrow or lend in the world financial market has no impact on the world interest rate.
Chapter 5 also explained why net exports depend negatively on the exchange rate. S
Gde je
S = nominalni devizni kurs
= inostrana valuta po jedinici domaće valute

19. S = nominalni devizni kurs
= inostrana valuta po jedinici domaće valute
Je li to britanska ili evropska konvencija

21. IS* kriva: ravnoteža na robnom tržištu
IS* kriva je definisana za datu vrednost r*.
Intuitivni nalaz: Y S
IS* S
Again, “eq’m” is an abbreviation for “equilibrium.”
The text (p. 315) shows how the Keynesian Cross can be used to derive the IS* curve.
Suggestion: Before continuing, ask your students to figure out what happens to this IS* curve if taxes are reduced.
Answer: The IS* curve shifts rightward (i. e., upward).
Explanation: Start at any point on the initial IS* curve. At this point, initially, Y = C + I + G + NX. Now cut taxes. At the initial value of Y, disposable income is higher, causing consumption to be higher. Other things equal, the goods market is out of whack: C + I + G + NX > Y. An increase in Y (of just the right amount) would restore equilibrium. Hence, each value of e is associated with a larger value of Y. OR, a decrease in NX of just the right amount would restore equilibrium at the initial value of Y. But the decrease in NX requires an increase in e. Hence, each value of Y is associated with a higher value of e.
Rationale: Doing this exercise now will break up your lecture, and will prepare students for the fiscal policy experiment that is coming up in just a few slides.

23. LM* kriva LM* kriva definisana je za datu vrednost r*
Vertikalna je jer: za dato r*, postoji samo jedna vrednost Y koja izjednačava tražnju i ponudu novca, nezavisno od S. Y S
LM*
The text (p.316) shows how the LM curve in (Y,r) space, together with the fixed r*, determines the value of Y at which the LM* curve here is vertical.
Suggestion: Before continuing, ask your students to figure out what happens to this LM* curve if the money supply is increased.
Answer: LM* shifts to the right.
Explanation: The equation for the LM* curve is:
M/P = L(r*, Y)
P is fixed, r* is exogenous, the central bank sets M, then Y must adjust to equate money demand (L) with money supply (M/P). Now, if M is raised, then money demand must rise to restore equilibrium (remember: P is fixed). A fall in r would cause money demand to rise, but in a small open economy, r = r* is exogenous. Hence, the only way to restore equilibrium is for Y to rise.
Rationale: Doing this exercise now will break up your lecture, and will prepare students for the monetary policy experiment that is coming up in just a few slides.

24. Ravnoteža u Mandel-Flemingovom modelS Y S
LM*
IS*
Ravnotežni devizni kurs
Ravnotežni nivo dohotka

25. Fleksibilni i fiksni devizni kursevi
U sistemu fleksibilnog kursa, S fluktuira sa promenom uslova privređivanja.
Nasuprot tome, pri fiksnom kursu, centralna banka trguje inostranom valutom po unapred utvrđenoj ceni.
Sada ćemo ispitivati fiskalnu, monetarnu i spoljnotrgovinsku politiku : najpre u sistemu fleksibilnog, a zatim u sistemu fiksnog kursa.

26. Fiskalna politika pri fleksibilnom kursuY S
Pri bilo kojoj vrednosti S, fiskalna ekspanzija će povećati Y, pomerajući IS* udesno. S2 S1
Intuition for the shift in IS*:
At a given value of e (and hence NX), an increase in G causes an increase in the value of Y that equates planned expenditure with actual expenditure.
Intuition for the rezults:
As we learned in earlier chapters, a fiscal expansion puts upward pressure on the country’s interest rate. In a small open economy with perfect capital mobility, as soon as the domestic interest rate rises even the tiniest bit about the world rate, tons of foreign (financial) capital will flow in to take advantage of the rate difference. But for foreigners to buy these U.S. bonds, they must first acquire U.S. dollars. Hence, the capital inflows rezult in an increase in foreign demand for dollars in the foreign exchange market, causing the dollar to appreciate. This appreciation makes exports more expensive to foreigners, and imports cheaper to people at home, and thus causes NX to fall. The fall in NX offsets the effect of the fiscal expansion.
How do we know that Y = 0? Because maintaining equilibrium in the money market requires that Y be unchanged: the fiscal expansion does not affect either the real money supply (M/P) or the world interest rate (because this economy is “small”). Hence, any change in income would throw the money market out of whack. So, the exchange rate has to rise until NX has fallen enough to perfectly offset the expansionary impact of the fiscal policy on output.
rezultati:
S > 0, Y = 0 Y1

27. Zaključci o fiskalnoj politici
U maloj otvorenoj privredi sa savršenom mobilnošću kapitala, fiskalna politika ne može da utiče na izmenu realnog BDP.
ISTISKIVANJE - “Crowding out”
U zatvorenoj privredi: fiskalna politika istiskuje investicije tako što izaziva rast kamatne stope
U maloj otvorenoj privredi: fiskalna politika istiskuje neto izvoz tako što izaziva apresijaciju deviznog kursa

28. Monetarna politika pri fleksibilnom kursuY S Y1
Rast M pomera LM* udesno jer Y mora da raste da bi se povratila ravnoteža na novčanom tržištu. S1 S2
Suggestion: Treat this experiment as an in-class exercise. Display the graph with the initial equilibrium. Then give students 2-3 minutes to use the model to determine the effects of an increase in M on e and Y.
Intuition for the rightward LM* shift:
At the initial (r*,Y), an increase in M throws the money market out of whack. To restore equilibrium, either Y must rise, or the interest rate must fall, or some combination of the two. In a small open economy, though, the interest rate cannot fall. So Y must rise to restore equilibrium in the money market.
Intuition for the rezults:
Initially, the increase in the money supply puts downward pressure on the interest rate. (In a closed economy, the interest rate would fall.) Because the economy is small and open, when the interest rate tries to fall below r*, savers send their loanable funds to the world financial market. This capital outflow causes the exchange rate to fall, which causes NX-- and hence Y--to increase.
rezultat:
S < 0, Y > 0 Y2

29. Zaključci o monetarnoj politici
Monetarna politika deluje na output tako što utiče na jednu ili više komponenti agregatne tražnje:
zatvorena privreda: M  r  I  Y
Mala otvorena privreda: M  S  NX Y
Ekspanzivna monetarna politika ne podiže svetsku agregatnu tražnju
već premešta tražnju sa inostranih na domaće proizvode.
Na taj način rast dohotka i zaposlenosti kod kuće dešava se na račun gubitaka neke druge zemlje.
Beggar thy neighbour policy
Suggestion:
Before revealing the text on this slide, ask students to take out a piece of paper and answer this question:
“Contrast the way in which monetary policy affects output in the closed economy with the small open economy.” Or something to that effect.

30. Danas to radi Britanija a Evropa neće...
Ali neki traže...

31. Spoljnotrgovinska politika pri fleksibilnom kursuY S S1 Y1
Pri bilo kojoj datoj vrednosti S, carine ili kvote smanjuju uvoz, povećavaju NX, i pomeraju IS* krivu udesno. S2
Intuition for rezults:
At the initial exchange rate, the tariff or quota shifts domestic residents’ demand from foreign to domestic goods. The reduction in their demand for foreign goods causes a corresponding reduction in the supply of the country’s currency in the foreign exchange market. This causes the exchange rate to rise. The appreciation reduces NX, offsetting the import restriction’s initial expansion of NX.
How do we know that the effect of the appreciation on NX exactly cancels out the effect of the import restriction on NX? There is only one value of Y that allows the money market to clear; since Y, C, I, and G are all unchanged, NX = Y-(C+I+G) must also be unchanged.
Or looking at it differently: As we learned in chapter 5, the accounting identities say that NX = S - I. The import restriction does not affect S or I, so it cannot affect the equilibrium value of NX.
rezultat:
S > 0, Y = 0

32. Zaključci o spoljnotrgovinskoj politici
Uvozne restrikcije ne mogu smanjiti deficit.
Čak i pri nepromenjenom NX, razmena se smanjuje:
Restrikcije smanjuju uvoz
Apresijacija smanjuje izvoz
Pad razmene vodi padu “koristi od razmene’
Import restrictions cause a sectoral shift, a shift in demand from export-producing sectors to import-competing sectors. As we learned in Chapter 6, sectoral shifts contribute to the natural rate of unemployment, because displaced workers in declining sectors take time to be matched with appropriate jobs in other sectors.

33. Uvozne restrikcije čuvaju radna mesta u domaćoj industriji, ali uništavaju radna mesta u izvoznom sektoru
Stoga uvozne restrikcije ne mogu da doprinesu rastu ukupne zaposlenosti.
Što je još gore, uvozne restrikcije prave “sektorsko prebacivanje,” što deluje na rast frikcionalne nezaposlenosti

34. Fiksni devizni kurs
Centralna banka se obavezuje da proda ili kupi domaću valutu po unapred definisanoj ceni.
U MF, centralna banka pomera LM* krivu kako bi zadržala S na ranije objavljenom nivou.
Ovaj sistem podrazumeva da se fiksira nominalni devizni kurs.
Na dugi rok, kada su cene fleksibilne, realni kurs može da se menja čak i ako je nominalni kurs fiksiran.

35. Kako?

36. Srbija

37. /100

38. Kako se vrši arbitraža kada je domaća valuta precenjena
Kolika je zarada?
Ako odem u CB i za 1000 dinara kupim 10 evra
Odem na tržište i prodam 10 evra za 1200dinara!
Razliku od 200 dinara odnesem u CB i prodam za 2 evra
Prinos na ovom poslu je 20%
Precenjen dinar u Srbiji
Tržišni 8. €/1000DIN
Država kaže –
10 €/ 1000DIN
Država daje VIŠE evra za dinare – evro je je u Srbiji jeftin - dinar je skup!!!
Onda će NBS
Prodaje evre
Povlači dinare
A igrači
Kupuju evre – a NBS povlači dinare

39. Fiskalna politika pri fiksnom kursu
Pri fleksibilnom kursu, fiskalna politika je neefikasna
Pri fiksnom kursu, fiskalna politika je vrlo efikasna pri promeni outputa.
Pri fleksiblinom kursu, fiskalna ekspanzija bi povećala S. Y S
Da bi sprečila S da raste, centralna banka mora da prodaje domaću valutu, što povećava M i pomera LM* udesno. S
Rezultat:
S = 0, Y > 0 Y1 Y2

40. Monetarna politika pri fiksnom kursu
Rast M pomera LM* udesno i obara S.
Pri fleksibilnom kursu, monetarna politika vrlo efikasno menja output.
Pri fiksnom kursu, monetarna poltika ne menja nivo outputa, endogena je. Y S Y1 S1
Da bi sprečila pad S, centralna banka mora da otkupljuje domaću valutu, što smanjujeM i pomera LM* ulevo.
The monetary expansion puts downward pressure on the exchange rate. To prevent it from falling, the central bank starts buying domestic currency in greater quantities to “prop up” the value of the currency in foreign exchange markets. This buying removes domestic currency from circulation, causing the money supply to fall, which shifts the LM* curve back.
Another way of looking at it: to keep the exchange rate fixed, the central bank must use monetary policy to shift LM* as required so that the intersection of LM* and IS* always occurs at the desired exchange rate. Unless the IS* curve shifts right (an experiment we are not considering now), the central bank simply cannot increase the money supply.
Rezultat:
S = 0, Y = 0

41. Spoljnotrgovinska politika pri fiksnom deviznom kursu
Pri fleksibilnom kursu, uvozne restrikcije ne utiču na Y niti na NX.
Pri fiksnom kursu uvozne restrikcije dovode do rasta Y i NX.
Ali ovaj dobitak se ostvaruje na račun drugih jer se tražnja pomera sa stranih na domaće proizvode, tzv. “beggar-thy-neighbour-policy”
Restrikcije na uvoz vode apresijaciji S. Y S Y1 S1
Da bi sprečilo S da raste, centralna banka mora da prodaje domaću valutu, što vodi rastu M i pomera LM* udesno.
Suggestion: Assign this experiment as an in-class exercise. Give students 3 minutes to work on it before displaying the answer on the screen.
Rezultat:
e = 0, Y > 0 Y2

42. M-F:efekti Režim defiznog kursa: plivajući fiksni Uticaj na: PolitikaY S NX
Fiskalna ekspanzija  
monet. ekspanzija
Uvozne restrikcije
Table 12-1 on p (“M-F” = “Mundell-Fleming”)
This table makes it easy to see that the effects of policies depend very much on whether exchange rates are fixed or flexible.

43. Razlika u kamatnoj stopi
Ima dva razloga zbog kojih se r može razlikovati od r*
Rizik zemlje - country risk: Rizik neplaćanja dospelih obaveza usled političkih ili privrednih turbulencija.
Kreditori traže vežu kamatnu stopu da bi se obezbedili od rizika.
Očekivane promene deviznog kursa
Ako se očekuje depresijacija, onda zajmoprimci moraju da plate veću kamatnu stopu da bi kompenzovali kreditore za iznos očekivane depresijacije

44. Razlike u M-F modelu  je premija na rizik.
Ako ovaj izraz zemenimo u jednačine IS* i LM* : S
The first equation says that a country’s interest rate equals the world interest rate plus a risk premium (whose size depends on investors’ perceptions of the political and economic risk of holding that country’s assets and on the expected rate of depreciation or appreciation of the country’s currency.
We can now use the M-F model to analyze the effects of a change in the risk premium. The next few slides present this analysis, then discuss an important real-world example (the Mexican peso crisis).

45. Efekti rasta  rezultat: S < 0, Y > 0 IS* se pomera ulevo, jer
   r  I Y S Y1 S1
LM* se pomera udeasno, jer
   r  (M/P )d, te Y mora da raste da bi se obezbedila ravnoteža na tržištu novca.
Intuition:
If prospective lenders expect the country’s currency to depreciation, or if they perceive that the country’s assets are especially risky, then they will demand that borrowers in that country pay them a higher interest rate (over and above r*).
The higher interest rate reduces investment and shifts the IS* curve to the left.
But it also lowers money demand, so income must rise to restore money market equilibrium.
Why does the exchange rate fall? The increase in the risk premium causes foreign investors to sell some of their holdings of domestic assets and pull their ‘loanable funds’ out of the country. The capital outflow causes an increase in the supply of domestic currency in the foreign exchange market, which causes the fall in the exchange rate. Or, in simpler terms, an increase in country risk or an expected depreciation makes holding the country’s currency less desirable. S2
rezultat: S < 0, Y > 0 Y2

46. Efekti rasta 
Pad S je intuitivno jasan: Rast rizika zemlje ili očekivana depresijacija destimuliše privredne subjeke da drže domaću valutu
NAPOMENA: očekivana depresijacija predstavlja samoispunjavajuće proročanstvo
Rast Y se javlja zbog rasta NX (zbog depresijacije)
Koji je još veći nego što je bio pad I (zbog rasta r ).

47. Zašto dohodak možda neće porasti
Centralna banka može da spreči depresijaciju smanjujući ponudu novca
Depresijacija bi mogla da podigne cene uvozne robe, te da dovede do rasta novoa cena (što bi smanjilo ponudu realnog novca)
Potrošači bi mogli da na rastući rizik odgovore tako što drže više novca
Sve ove promene bi pomerile LM* ulevo.
The rezult that income rises when the risk premium rises seems counter-intuitive and inaccurate. This slide explains why the increase in the risk premium may cause other things to occur that prevent income from rising, and may even cause income to fall.

48. Kriza meksičkog pezosa
Mexico’s central bank had maintained a fixed exchange rate with the U.S. dollar at about 29 cents per peso.

49. Kriza meksičkog pezosa
In the week before Christmas 1994, the central bank abandoned the fixed exchange rate, allowing the peso’s value to “float.” Then, in just one week, the peso lost nearly 40% of its value, falling further during the following months.

50. Kriza prezosa nije pogodila samo Meksiko
Američka dobra postala su skuplja za Meksikance
Firme iz SAD su izgubile prihode
Stotine bankrotstava duž granice SAD-Meksiko
Dolarska vrednost meksičke finansijske aktive se smanjila
Uštede u pezionim fondovima miliona građana SAD su se smanjila
The purpose of this slide is to motivate the topic. Even though this occurred in another country some years ago, it was very important for the U.S. The parents of many of your students probably held Mexican assets (indirectly through mutual funds in their 401k accounts and pension funds, which viewed Mexico very favorably prior to the crisis) and took losses when the crisis occurred.

51. Kriza Ustanak seljaka u Chiapasu
Početkom 90tih, Meksiko je postao atratkivno mesto za strana ulaganja.
Tokom 1994, potitički događaji izazvali su rast premije na rizik ( ):
Ustanak seljaka u Chiapasu
Ubistvo vodećeg predsedničkog kandidata
Naredni faktor: The Federal Reserve je podigla američku kamatnu stopu da bi sprečila inflaicju u SAD. (tako je r* > 0)
When the last line displays, it might be helpful to note that, from Mexico’s viewpoint, the U.S. interest rate is r*.

52. Kriza To se odrazilo na pritisak da pezos devalvira
Meksička centralna banka neprestano obećavala da neće dozvoliti pad pezosa,
te je prodavala devizne rezerve da bi održala fiksni kurs
Takva politika je zahtevala da Centralna banka Meksika raspolaže adekvatnim deviznim rezervama. Da li je to bilo tačno?
We have already seen why an increase in a country’s risk premium causes its exchange rate to fall. One could also use the M-F model to show that an increase in r* also causes the exchange rate to fall. The intuition is as follows: An increase in foreign interest rates causes capital outflows: investors shift some of their funds out of the country to take advantage of higher returns abroad. This capital outflow causes the exchange rate to fall, as it implies an increase in the supply of the country’s currency in the foreign exchange market.

53. Dollar reserves of Mexico’s central bank
Decembar 1993 ……………… $28 mlrd
17. Avgust 1994 ……………… $17 mlrd
1 .Decembar 1994 …………… $ 9 mlrd
15. Decembar ………… $ 7 billion
Defending the peso in the face of large capital outflows was draining the reserves of Mexico’s central bank.
(August 17, 1994 was the date of Mexico’s presidential election.)
Ask your students if they can figure out why Mexico’s central bank didn’t tell anybody it was running out of reserves.
The answer: If people had known that the reserves were dwindling, then they would also have known that the central bank would soon have to devalue or abandon the fixed exchange rate altogether. They would have expected the peso to fall, which would have caused a further increase in Mexico’s risk premium, which would have put even more downward pressure on Mexico’s exchange rate and made it even harder for the central bank to “defend the peso.”
Source (not only for the data on this slide, but some of the other information in this case study): Washington Post National Weekly Edition, pp. 8-9, Feb , various issues of The Economist in Jan. & Feb. '95.
Tokom 1994, Centralna banka Meksika sakrivala je podatak da njene devizne rezerve polako nestaju

54.  katastrofa  (S pada sa 29 na 25 centi za pezosi)
2. decembra: Meksički pezos devalvira za 13%
(S pada sa 29 na 25 centi za pezosi)
Investitori su šokirani! ! !
…i uviđaju da mora biti da su se rezerve centralne banke istopile…
, investitori izvlače svoj kapital iz Meksika.
22. decembar: rezerve Centralne banke skoro su nestale. Ona napušta fiksni kurs i pušta S da pliva.
Za nedelju dana, S pada za još 30%.

55. Spasavanje
1995: SAD. i IMF daju kredit od $50 milijardi dolara koji bi služio kao garancija za kreditnu sposobnost meksičke vlade.
To je pomoglo da se povrati poverenje investitora i da se smanji premija na rizik.
Nakon teške recesije u godini, Meksiko započinje brzi oporavak.
The case study on pp gives more detail on the peso crisis.

56. Plivajući vs. Fiksni kursevi
Argumenti za plivajući kurs:
Dozvoljava da se monetarnom politikom aktivira za druge ciljeve (rast, obaranje inflacije)
Argumenti za fiksni kurs:
Izbegava se neizvesnost i nestabilnost, olakšavaju se međunarodne transakcije
Uvodi disciplinu u vođenje monetarne politike, onemogućava preveliki rast novčane mase i eliminiše mogućnost hiperinflacije

57. Mandel-Flemingov model i AD kriva
Do sada, cene u MF modelu, P, bile su fiksne.
Sada: da bismo izveli AD krivu, moramo dozvoliti promenu cena P
Sada jednačinu pišemo kao : s
Net exports really depend on the real exchange rate, not the nominal exchange rate. Earlier in the chapter, we wrote NX as a function of the nominal rate, because the price level was assumed fixed, so the nominal & real rates always moved together. But now, with the price level changing also, we need to write NX as a function of the real exchange rate.
(ranije je P bilo fiksno, te smo mogli da pišemo da je NX funkcija S, a ne funkcija s.)

58. Izvodjenje AD krive  Y Zašto AD kriva ima negativan nagib: s2 s1 P
LM*(P2)
LM*(P1)
Zašto AD kriva ima negativan nagib:
IS* s2 s1 P
 (M/P )
 LM shifts left Y2 Y1 Y P
 s P2
Like figure on p.336, except here we are showing what happens to Y when P increases (not falls).
The derivation of the open economy AD curve is very similar to that of the closed economy AD curve (see chapter 11).
 NX P1
 Y AD Y2 Y1

59. Od kratkog ka dugom rokuZa Y  P
IS* AD
LRAS
LM*(P2) P2
SRAS2
LM*(P1)
Javlja se pritisak na cene u pradu njihovog smanjenja. 1 2
Vremenom će P početi da pada, izazivajući
(M/P )
s 
NX 
Y  P1
SRAS1
Figure on p.337.
Suggestion:
Have your students draw the two panels of the diagram on this screen, with the economy in an initial equilibrium with output equal to its natural rate. Then, have them use their diagrams to analyze the short-run and long-run effects of a negative IS* shock.

60. Velika privreda: nešto između male i zatvorene privrede
Mnoge zemlje nisu ni zatvorene niti su male i otvorene
Velika otvorena privreda negde je između krajnjih tačaka
U slučaju monetarne ekspanzije:
Kao u zatvorenoj privredi M > 0  r  I (ali ne sasvim kao pre)
Kao u otvorenoj privredi, M > 0    NX (ali ne istim intenzitetom)
For more details, see the Appendix to Chapter 12 (not included in this PowerPoint presentation).

61. Rezime IS-LM model za malu otvorenu privredu. Uzima se da je P dato
1. Mandel-Flemingov model
IS-LM model za malu otvorenu privredu.
Uzima se da je P dato
Pokazuje kako politike i šokovi utiču na dohodak i na devizni kurs
2. Fiskalna politika
Ima uticaja pri fiksnom ali ne i pri fleksibilnom kursu

62. Rezime Ima uticaja pri fleksibilnom kursu.
3. Monetarna poltiika
Ima uticaja pri fleksibilnom kursu.
Pri fiksnom kursu neće delovati na output.
Razlike u kamatnoj stopi postoje
Ako invstitori traže premiju na rizik da bi držali domaću finansijsku aktivu.
Rast premije na rizik podiže domaću kamatnu stopu i izaziva depresijaciju valute.

63. Rezime
Pri fleksibilnom kursu monetarna politika se može posvetiti drugim ciljevima, a ne samo održanju fisnog pariteta
Fiksni kurs smanjuje neke neizvesnosti u međunarodnim transakcijama