1. Mental models are concepts we use to help explain things
Mental models are concepts we use to help explain things. Each discipline has their own set you learn through coursework or experience. They guide sense making, decision making and problem solving. Some general examples include the notion of inflation from the discipline of economics; adaptation, from the field of ecology; and, norms, from social psychology.
During our monthly ALN meetings we use Tool Time to introduce or dig deeper into potentially useful mental models and share specific tools associated with them so that teams can decide if these concepts would be helpful in their work now or some time in the future. Last month we briefly talked about systems thinking and today we are going to introduce everyone to a mental model called Theory of Change (ToC).
Although Elizabeth and I will be introducing you to this concept today it’s important to know that the two of us in collaboration with Ethan and Wendy have only just begun to learn about ToC and how to use it. In other words, we’re only one step ahead of everyone else in the network – we’re novices trying to make sense of these ideas as we go along and we want to bring you with us.
ToC looks complicated when you first encounter it but we will be presenting the process in manageable chunks over the next few meetings so that everyone can learn the language and understand how to go about using the tools. Anyone who attended ALN sessions last year will recognize elements of a logic model in the ToC process so you will be able to use prior knowledge to help you make sense of this approach. Those of you who are new to ALN this year will be able to use what you learn about ToC to help you understand how logic models are created.

2. Theory of Change
Description of what you intend to do to bring about some change including an explanation of how and why you think that change process will happen.
Simply stated, a ToC is a narrative description of the path you intend to take to bring about some change that includes an explanation of how and why you think that change process will happen.

3. Visual model of outcomes and preconditions in a cause-effect order
Causal pathway map
Visual model of outcomes and preconditions in a cause-effect order
Long term outcome = ultimate goal
Preconditions = what is required for the goal to happen
The first “chunk” in the process is to create a causal pathway map, which is a visual model of outcomes and preconditions arranged in cause-effect order. The long-term outcome is the goal you want to achieve. Preconditions are what are required for the long-term goal to happen.

4. Creating the map Identify the ultimate goal
Develop the pathway to the goal using a backward mapping approach
There are two steps in creating the map: 1) identify the ultimate outcome; and 2) develop the pathway using a backward mapping approach. Many of you are already familiar with backward design for curriculum and instruction – this is the same idea applied to the change process.
The final product of pathway mapping should look something like the figure on the back of the handout you received. The handout also includes some suggestions for avoiding potential errors at each step as teams implement the process.
Back in September, we introduced a tool called checking for understanding that is a protocol you may have already used to help you identify your team’s long-term outcome, which is step 1. The link to this protocol is at the top of the list under Sensemaking on the ALN website.

5. Subsequent Steps
Identify what we will do to make sure each precondition exists
State how we intend to measure success at each step
Justify why we think each part of the model will cause something else in the model to occur
Subsequent steps in completing the causal pathway map will require us to:
Identify what we intend to do to make sure each of the preconditions on the pathway exist;
State how we intend to measure success at each step so we know how well a precondition needs to be met in order to get to the next goal; and,
Justify why we think each part of the model will cause something else in the model to occur.

6. Consider using when:
You are designing or trying to understand a complex initiative
You want to ensure you have a very specific, rigorous plan for success
You want to know why something worked or what exactly went wrong
Elizabeth is going to show everyone some examples of causal pathways to help you better understand what these maps look like.
For those of you familiar with logic models you will see that these examples require much more specificity and thought than is typically required to establish the if-then logic in your plan for action.
Teams will want to consider using Theory of Change models when they are involved in designing or better understanding a complex initiative; ensuring they have a very specific, rigorous plan for success; and analyzing why something worked or what exactly went wrong.

7. Theory of change (ToC) Learning over time
Today:
Conceptualizing ToC
Causal Pathway
Upcoming sessions:
Interventions
Measurements
Indicators
Assumptions
Gary spelled out beautifully some of the foundational aspects of ToC, I’d like to emphasize a few points as a learner of this process.
I hope for some of you this first introduction to ToC gave you a sense of how you might begin to make explicit amongst yourselves as leaders and for your community how you intend to go from those problems that keep you up at night to the outcomes you desire.
Our intention for this presentation is really to allow you to begin conceptualizing of this one tool and perhaps for some of you, even to compare and contrast it with Logic Models.
When you get into some of the reading and resources there are some new terms that may be overwhelming. This tool is rigorous and specific which is why its so powerful but it’s complexity can be daunting as well. Rest assured, from here, with your feedback and our combined learning, we’ll get more into depth in upcoming sessions with some of these other concepts of ToC.

8. Prior to joining ALN, this was my experience with Systems Thinking and understanding how complex systems improve over time.
Many people still operate with this degree of specificity – which is to say little and vague clarity about how to solve complex problems.

9. Then about three years ago in ALN we learned about Logic Models – this is the model I came up with at the time. Allow me to point out
If you look at my DHH Logic Model from a few years back, you can see I took inputs (resources, people, names of protocols, etc.), put them into various activities and pointed to what those activities would result in. And indeed, much of what is on this Logic Model has taken place.
I can now see, looking back, that ToC would be a much more rigorous and specific model for improving our work.
A few things to note:
No backward mapping – I start with Inputs, do activities which will lead to outcomes.
I did the planning work with my team, but created the model itself alone. It helped ME with my mental model for the work; but ToC really requires a collaborative approach. My experience with Ethan’s team was that they similarly came from a cohesive, shared vision, but naming their shared outcomes took many hours of reflection and conversation with facilitation.
Which activities will lead to which outcomes, when and why is not specified. There are unarticulated assumptions here.
The outcomes a the time are not specific enough, came out of our discussions but not our collaborative decision making about this model.
If our team took what was learned here and collaboratively generated a higher degree of specificity through backward mapping, a ToC model would
Allow our leadership, our team and outside stake holders to have a shared visual representation of our work.
It would be clear, concise and yet clear how we intend to go from here to where our mission is.
C) There would be no places, or less places at least for hoping for miracles will happen.

10. We will revisit this ToC graphic in the future but for now let’s take a look at one of the examples shared in the hand out we gave you today:
“Creating a Pathway of Change” is an adaptation of material from The Community Builder’s Approach to Theory of Change: A Practical Guide to Theory Development; Andrea A. Anderson; The Aspen Institute Roundtable on Community Change.
Comparatively to my logic model, a good start,
I want to point out a few things here:
As in the LM, there is an outcome, but then the team worked backward to specify three things that would need to happen in order for the outcome to be possible, then each of those if you follow one strand down, you can see clearly how any one of the five situations on the bottom could ultimately lead to the outcome.
This model is incredibly concise, yet specific and clear.
There are some intricacies here that we’ll get into in future sessions, today is about helping you conceptualize of backward mapping within the causal pathway.

11. You might consider: 1. Studying and reading about ToC more
(resources listed on the back of the Project Superwoman sheet.)
2. Setting up a time to discuss ToC further within your network.
3. Consider what outside facilitation might look like.
4. Compare ToC with your Logic Model (if you have one)
5. Lastly, see this as a new idea to explore, not something you need to become an expert on immediately.
So you’ve heard the theoretical concepts from Gary, a bit of a comparison to my logic model and saw an example of backward mapping. I hope the power of this model is exciting (if perhaps a bit less daunting) for you:
Where might you go from here?
First, we’re going to ask your teams to do some short reflection on this Tool Time information in a moment.
Then, you might consider: (from slide)
Studying and reading about ToC more with the resources on the back of the Project Superwoman sheet.
Setting up a time to discuss ToC further within your networks.
Consider what outside facilitation would look like.
Compare ToC with your Logic Model (if you have one)
Lastly, see this as a new idea to explore, not something you need to become an expert on immediately. We’re nearly a year in to this process ourselves and I would say that Gary, Wendy, Ethan and I still feel as if we are neophytes with this process.

12. Team Time: Reflecting on ToC
“Would ToC (or a tool like it) be useful for our team? If so, when might it be helpful?”
“What questions do I have about ToC?”
I. Reflect on what you’ve heard individually (2 min)
II. Share out with each other as a team ( min)
III. Be ready to share out to whole group for our final ALN debrief at 11 am.
Now, for team time, we have two questions for you to consider.