1. The Dynamics of Political Communication Chapter 10 Political News, Polls, and the Presidential Campaign
© 2018 Taylor & Francis

2. Horse Race and Strategy-Based News
News media cover presidential politics as if it were a game, a sporting event, a horse race. Why? Some explanations:
Horse race stories emphasize conflict
Polls provide a patina of scientific responsibility to confer credibility
Horse race stories are easy to cover
Polls offer tangible evidence of how candidates are doing, which is reasonable for journalists to cover
Voters follow and prefer strategically framed poll-dominated news
Perhaps the election is a horse race
© 2018 Taylor & Francis

3. Horse Race Coverage in Primary Election News: 1988–2016
Focus of coverage (percentage of stories)*
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
Horse race
49%
55%
56%
78%
77%
71%
64%
63%
Policy issues
16%
72%
44%
22%
18%
14%
10%
26%
What trends emerge from this table? How does horse race coverage make you feel about democracy and government?
*Stories coded could include horse race and a policy focus, neither, or another category; thus the numbers do not add up to 100%.
© 2018 Taylor & Francis

4. The science of Election Polls
A poll is “any political sample survey of the electorate conducted by the media, politicians, or political interest groups that aims for a relatively quick and somewhat cursory tally of the public’s political opinions and preferences” (Traugott & Lavrakas, 2008, p. 191)
A sample is a scientifically selected subset of a larger population
Well conducted scientific polls can provide accurate information and provide mechanism for citizen feedback to leaders, but …
Polls have imperfections:
They focus on likely voters, but that’s difficult to estimate
Social desirability effects influence what people say
Non-response bias is a problem
Polls can fail to be predictive because of unexpected events
© 2018 Taylor & Francis

5. Major News Media Storylines
Narratives or storylines are broad frames, influenced by journalistic, professional and economic factors, that shape campaign news reporting
Media have six key narratives:
Candidate schema
Front-runner
Losing ground
Bandwagon
Electability
Exceeding expectations
© 2018 Taylor & Francis

6. Candidate Schema Narratives
Reporters develop mental frameworks or schema to organize information about candidates
Once they decide a schema fits a candidate, they invoke this in news stories
Examples:
Reagan as “the Great Communicator”
Gore as a “serial exaggerator”
Bush as “dumb”
H. Clinton as “secretive”
© 2018 Taylor & Francis

7. Front-runner Storyline
Trajectory of press positivity
News initially gives considerable coverage to the front-running candidate because of poll numbers
Over time, positive press is replaced by negative coverage as reporters desire to inform the public about the front- runner’s flaws
© 2018 Taylor & Francis

8. Losing Ground Storyline
Trajectory of press positivity
Coverage of a leading candidate gets more negative as support declines
Press coverage frequently exaggerates the decline in support
© 2018 Taylor & Francis

9. Bandwagon Storyline Trajectory of press positivity
When a candidate’s poll ratings or nomination victories increase sharply, news stories increase in favorability
© 2018 Taylor & Francis

10. Electability and Exceeding Expectations Storylines
Electability storyline
Candidates are framed by their likelihood of winning the nomination
Press play up particular candidates’ supposedly small chances of gaining their party’s nomination
Exceeding expectations storyline
Candidates are favorably evaluated if they perform better than expected or…
Negatively assessed if they did worse than anticipated
Although Bernie Sanders’ trajectory was more positive than expected, the mainstream news never adopted a “bandwagon” or “exceeds expectations” storyline for him. At the same time, social media coverage of “Bernie” was overwhelmingly positive. What accounts for the difference?
Note: In all of these storylines, candidate viability is the major determinant of news favorability
© 2018 Taylor & Francis

11. Explaining Trump Vs. Clinton Campaign Coverage: Press Bias?
Favorability of Trump’s Press Coverage
in the Early 2016 Campaign
Explaining Trump Vs. Clinton Campaign Coverage: Press Bias?
© 2018 Taylor & Francis

12. Explaining Trump Vs. Clinton Campaign Coverage: Press Bias?
© 2018 Taylor & Francis

13. Why did Trump Dominate the 2016 News Cycle?
Trump received substantially more mentions than candidates from both parties during the pre-primary period
Trump captured the equivalent of $55 million of free advertising on major media outlets, 1.5 times that of his closest Republican rival
Media may have focused on him more because:
Novel & dramatic candidate
Personally captivating
A known celebrity
Attracted large crowds
Attracted a distinctive group of voters
Exceeded expectations
Star persona brought in viewers when news media was otherwise in financial decline
© 2018 Taylor & Francis

14. Patterns of Coverage
Coverage of Trump got more negative over the course of the campaign in the wake of scandals and poor debate performance
Clinton coverage was more negative in the pre-primary period and got more positive over time
Partisan bias doesn’t account for this pattern of coverage
Liberal critics argue news made false equivalence between Trump and Clinton even though Trump lied 9 times more often
Which traditional storylines do you see emerging from the patterns of coverage for Trump and for Clinton?

15. The Issues Quandary Political journalists traditionally neglect issues
By minimizing issue coverage, news does little to help voters understand complex problems facing the nation
Horse race coverage drowns out issue coverage
Issue coverage is frequently limited to short soundbites
Voters could be ignorant of issues that directly affect them as a consequence
Journalism avoids covering issues in depth because it would require journalists to comment on the intellectual quality of a candidate’s viewpoint – this could raise flags of perceived bias

16. Conclusions
News covers elections primarily as a horse race and strategic game
Pre-election polls are a key component of horse race news
Political news is best understood by prevailing journalistic storylines
These narratives can force the facts to fit journalists’ preconceived schemas
Controversy continues over whether news over-covered Trump and exaggerated Clinton’s faults
The overwhelmingly negative tone of press coverage is a broader concern
There are good and bad effects of negative coverage
The press fails to provide sufficient coverage of policy issues
News is imperfect, but it does cover campaigns thoroughly and endlessly