1. COSMO-LEPS verification
Chiara Marsigli Francesco Boccanera Andrea Montani Tiziana Paccagnella

2. super-ensemble (ECMWF 5RM) BSS outliers

3. number of RMs BSS outliers
new suite

4. COSMO observations

5. obs mask 1.5 x 1.5

6. adjacent boxes

7. COSMO-LEPS vs 5RM-EPS vs 51M-EPS ROC area average on 1.5 x 1.5 boxes
tp > 10mm/24h
tp > 20mm/24h
COSMO-LEPS
5-MEMBER EPS
51-MEMBER EPS

8. COSMO-LEPS vs 5RM-EPS vs 51M-EPS ROC area maxima on 1.5 x 1.5 boxes
tp > 30mm/24h
tp > 20mm/24h
tp > 50mm/24h
COSMO-LEPS
5-MEMBER EPS
51-MEMBER EPS

9. COSMO-LEPS vs ECMWF 5 RM ROC average on 1.5 x 1.5 boxes
fc. range +66
tp > 20mm/24h
fc. range +90

10. COSMO-LEPS vs ECMWF 5 RM COST-LOSS average on 1.5 x 1.5 boxes
tp > 10mm/24h
fc. range +66
tp > 20mm/24h
envelope
envelope
COSMO-LEPS
5-MEMBER EPS
COSMO-LEPS
5-MEMBER EPS

11. COSMO-LEPS vs ECMWF 5 RM COST-LOSS average on 1.5 x 1.5 boxes
envelope
fc. range +90
COSMO-LEPS
5-MEMBER EPS
tp > 20mm/24h

12. COSMO-LEPS vs ECMWF 5 RM detscores average on 1.5 x 1.5 boxes
false alarm rate
observed
yes no a b c d
forecast

13. COSMO-LEPS vs ECMWF 5 RM detscores average on 1.5 x 1.5 boxes
bias score
observed
yes no a b c d
forecast

14. COSMO-LEPS vs ECMWF 5 RM detscores average on 1.5 x 1.5 boxes
threat score
observed
yes no a b c d
forecast

15. COSMO-LEPS vs ECMWF 5 RM OUTLIERS average on 1.5 x 1.5 boxes

16. italian observations

17. COSMO-LEPS - parallel suite ROC average on 0.5 x 0.5 boxes
tp > 20mm/24h
fc. range +90
Tiedtke
Kain-Fritsch
both (10-m)

18. COSMO-LEPS - parallel suite ROC maxima on 0.5 x 0.5 boxes
tp > 50mm/24h
fc. range +90
Tiedtke
Kain-Fritsch
both (10-m)

19. FINE

20. obs mask 0.5 x 0.5

21. ECMWF 5RM newsuite BSS average on 1.5 x 1.5 boxes
tp > 1mm/24h
tp > 10mm/24h
fc. range +90

22. ECMWF 5RM newsuite BSS average on 1.5 x 1.5 boxes
fc. range +114
tp > 1mm/24h
tp > 10mm/24h

23. ECMWF 5RM newsuite BSS average on 1.5 x 1.5 boxes
fc. range +114
tp > 20mm/24h

24. COSMO-LEPS - areas ROC average on boxes
fc. range +90
tp > 1mm/24h
tp > 10mm/24h

25. COSMO-LEPS - areas ROC average on boxes
fc. range +90
tp > 20mm/24h

26. deterministic scores
observed
yes no a b c d
forecast

27. COSMO-LEPS vs EPSrm - ndj0203 1.5 x 1.5 ave & max