1. The Standing Disease

2. 1

3. 1 2

4. 1 2 4

5. 1 2 4 8

6. 1 2 4 16 8

7. 32 1 2 4 16 8

8. 1 2 4 8 16 32 64
128
256
512
1,024
2,048
4,096
8,192
16,384
32,768
65,536
131,072
262,144
524,288
1,048,576
2,097,152
4,194,304
8,388,608
16,777,216
33,554,432
67,108,864
134,217,728
268,435,456
536,870,912
1,073,741,824
2,147,483,648
4,294,967,296
8,589,934,592
33 steps!

9. “Eyebrows were raised when the Centers for Disease Control’s model forecast 77 trillion cases if the epidemic went unchecked”
– Ben Cooper, 2006

10. ? Reproduction number (R0) Definition: Average number of people an
infected person infects at the start of an epidemic

11. ? R0=2 Reproduction number (R0)
Definition: Average number of people an
infected person infects at the start of an epidemic
R0=2

12. Cases decrease each step?
Reproduction number (R0)
R0 measures how quickly an epidemic will take off…
R0 < 1
Cases decrease each step

13. ? R0 < 1 R0 > 1 Reproduction number (R0)
R0 measures how quickly an epidemic will take off…
R0 < 1
Cases decrease each step
R0 > 1
Cases increase each step