1. Ag Cycles Cedar Valley Bankers Meeting New Hampton, Iowa Jan. 15, 2014
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. Corn Prices vs. Costs
Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre
Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

3. Soybean Prices vs. Costs
Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre
Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

4. Corn Prices and Recessions

5. Crop Prices for the Next Decade
Source: USDA-ERS

7. Iowa Land Values
Source: Mike Duffy, ISU

8. Iowa Land Values – Log Scale
Source: Mike Duffy, ISU

9. Land Values and Income
Source: Mike Duffy, ISU

10. Land Values and Income
Source: Mike Duffy, ISU

11. Crop Acreage
Source: USDA-NASS

12. Crop Shifts
Source: USDA-NASS

13. 2014/15 Crop Margins

14. GDP Growth
Source: USDA-ERS

15. GDP Growth
Source: USDA-ERS

16. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

17. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

18. Iowa Crop Shifts
Source: USDA-NASS

19. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)19 19

20. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)20 20

21. Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

22. (Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)
Liquid Fuel Usage
2007
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)
(Percent of 2007 Value)
United States
20.6
98%
100%
102%
104%
107%
Canada
2.3
96%
Mexico
2.1
105%
110%
114%
129%
138%
Europe
15.3
92%
88%
89%
90%
Japan
5.0
84%
86%
82%
China
7.6
132%
153%
178%
201%
222%
India
2.8
139%
154%
168%
Africa
3.1
113%
116%
126%
135%
148%
Central and South America
6.0
112%
117%
125%
133%
World
86.1
103%
121%
128%
Source: DOE-EIA

23. Population 2013 2020 2050 (billion) World 7.095 7.628 9.383 China
2020
2050
(billion)
World
7.095
7.628
9.383
China
1.350
1.385
India
1.657
1.221
1.326
1.304
U.S.
0.317
0.337
0.423
Indonesia
0.251
0.267
Nigeria
0.402
Brazil
0.201
Pakistan
0.214
0.300
0.193
0.212
0.291
0.175
0.208
Bangladesh
0.250
0.164
0.183
0.232
Russia
0.143
0.142
Ethiopia
0.228
Japan
0.127
0.126
Philippines
0.172
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

24. World Corn Markets
Source: USDA 24 24

25. Arable Land

26. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: