1. Established. Informed. Engaged.
Election Recap and Impact on New Congress
Presentation for the National Association of State Treasurers November 15, 2016
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2. Established. Informed. Engaged.
Overview
Republicans had a second consecutive strong election at the federal and state levels
National Polls performed better than State Polls
RealClearPolitics polling average: Clinton +3.2 (Actual: Clinton +1)
Wisconsin: Clinton +6.5 (Actual: Trump +1)
Michigan: Clinton +3.4 (Actual: Trump +1)
Iowa: Trump +3.0 (Actual: Trump +9)
Ohio: Trump +3.5 (Actual: Trump +8)
Pennsylvania: Clinton +1.9 (Actual: Trump +1)
Pundits and Election Forecasters missed badly (GOP primary & General Election)
Assumptions about Presidential outcome drove predictions that Democrats would capture Senate
Trump and GOP Senate candidate won key races in OH, PA, NC, WI, FL, IN, MO, AZ
Trump and GOP Senate candidate lost in key races of NH, NV
Little evidence of ticket-splitting
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Observations
Voters Under Age 25: Obama 2008: 66%; Clinton 2016: 56%
Trump won many voters that held unfavorable view of both candidates
Trump carried approximately 1/3rd of the 700 Counties that were won twice by Obama
Women: Clinton 53, Trump 42 (C+11)
2012 Obama 56, Romney 44 (O+12)
Trump won “most likely to bring change”
Trump won “better for the economy”
Clinton won “better temperament”
Clinton won “better qualified”
2016 was a change election; Trump was
ultimately better positioned as the change
candidate
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The Numbers
Electoral Vote (GOP Pickup)
Trump 306
Clinton 232
Senate (GOP Hold)
52 Republicans (-2)
48 Democrats (+2)*
House (GOP Hold)
241 Republicans (-6)
194 Democrats (+6)**
*Assumes GOP holds Louisiana Senate seat on December 10 (Treasurer John Kennedy vs. Foster Campbell)
**Two races outstanding in California, and two runoffs in Louisiana held December 10
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5. Policy Impact – 30,000 Foot View
One party control of Administration, Senate, House (first time since 2008 elections)
Last time one party controlled all three chambers:
Stimulus bill (ARRA)
Affordable Care Act (ACA)
Wide ranging and impactful regulatory changes
This time…
Infrastructure bill?
Tax reform?
ACA Replacement?
Border security?
Shift in regulatory environment?
Important distinction: Republicans lack a filibuster proof majority in the Senate; need Democratic votes except for budget reconciliation
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Impact to NAST
Great opportunity for NAST to continue leadership as a bipartisan organization
Treasurers and 529 Administrators have reputation as knowledgeable and trusted policy experts
2017 will bring to the forefront important legislation that could impact municipal bonds/infrastructure policy, college savings policy, financial literacy and education, and a big shift on financial and domestic policy regulations
Nearly all of the legislative changes will require bipartisan work and buy in from Congressional Leadership on all sides
The key Congressional players are for the most part unchanged, but the major difference is that a new Presidency creates immediate opportunities in year one to pass major legislation
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Key Issues and Committee Changes
Issue
Committee/Agency Changes
Tax-Exempt Muni Bonds
IRC Section 529
ABLE Programs
Senate Finance Committee – None
House Ways & Means Committee – None
New Treasury Secretary (TBD)
New Economic Advisors (TBD)
HQLA
Securities
MSRB,
Financial Literacy
CFPB
Senate Banking Committee – Mike Crapo (R-ID) becomes Chairman
House Financial Services Committee – None*
New SEC Chair (Mary Jo White stepping down)
New CFPB Leadership; Agency likely to be reconfigured
Established. Informed. Engaged.

8. Established. Informed. Engaged.
Contact Information
Williams & Jensen Matthew Hoekstra National Association of State Treasurers
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