1. vkm in transport modelling
Marek Šturc
European Commission DG Climate Action
Directorate A: International & Climate Strategy
Unit A4: Strategy & Economic Assessment

2. TREMOVE model transport model for policy assessment
including passenger and freight transport
covers the period
EU27 + Croatia, Norway, Switzerland, Turkey
assess environmental and economic effects
TREMOVE is not a transport demand model
TREMOVE is not a transport network model

3. When do we use TREMOVE? CO2 in cars Regulation (130 gCO2/km)
CO2 in vans proposal for Regulation
emissions standards (EURO VI for HDV)
taxation policies (Energy Taxation Directive)
road pricing (“Eurovignette” Directive)
scrappage schemes
speed limits
► impact assessments

4. Data in TREMOVE transport activity data (vkm, pkm, tkm)
detailed vehicle stock (cars, trucks, …)
occupancy rates + load factors
usage patterns
emission factors (COPERT IV)
vehicle speeds
various non-official sources and estimates

5. TREMOVE structure - modules
Consumer utility, Producer costs & Tax revenues
Speed & Load
Fuel
Transport
Vehicle
Traffic
Stock
consumption
demand
stock
demand
structure
and emissions
module
turnover
External
Welfare cost
module
module
Costs
module
Usage
activity by
vkm by type
emissions by
vehicle type
mode
and tech
TREMOVE model structure and components
Demand module
Vehicle stock module
Usage cost module
Emission module
Welfare module
Transport demand module: estimates changes in transport activity and modal choice given new transport costs - “generalized costs (producer price, tax/subsidy, time cost) per km” (usage cost) > pkm, tkm, and vkm for each mode and vehicle category (i.e. cars, trucks, …) Vehicle stock turnover module: describes how changes in transport activities and/or changes in vehicle price structure influence the size of vehicle fleet and its distribution into ages and types (i.e. diesel small cars,..) => the total fleet and vkm for each year according to vehicle type, technologies (Euro) and age. Fuel consumption and emissions module : calculates fuel consumption, GHG and air pollutant emissions (“COPERT” equations), based on the structure of the vehicle stock, the number of kilometres driven by each vehicle type and the driving conditions.
Usage
Stock
structure
Life cycle
emissions
module
Usage
Fuel
consumption
Cost

6. We need vehicle-km for each:
Fuel type
Vehicle category
Vehicle type
[example]

7. In addition, we need v-km for each technology (affect air pollutant emissions).
[example petrol cars]
And also v-km by age of vehicle
[example motorbikes]

8. Elements and dimension of TREMOVE model
Road measurement systems – vehicle count systems – can provide some aggregated data in dimensions “REGION” + “PERIOD” + “NETWORK”
Annual inspection checks for dimensions “vehicle age” + “vehicle category” + “vehicle type” + “vehicle technology”
Statistical surveys (questionnaires) can tackle other dimensions.
We need to combine all sources to get in the complete matrix.
Data + boundary condition + non-linear programming optimalization methods => semi-automated procedure to fill in all dimensions and data.
Calibration check with reported fuel consumption in the energy balances.

9. How emissions are calculated?
vehicle stock module produces figures on the vehicle-km for road transport disaggregated according to:
Vehicle type
Fuel type
Vehicle technology & Vehicle age
Network (urban road, rural road, motorway)
Region (metropolitan, other cities, non urban)
Period of day (peak or off-peak)
For each of these disaggregated vehicle-km, TREMOVE calculates emissions using the COPERT methodology.
COPERT 4 is an MS Windows software program aiming at the calculation of air pollutant emissions from road transport. The technical development of COPERT is financed by the European Environment Agency , in the framework of the activities of the European Topic Centre on Air and Climate Change. Since 2007, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre has been coordinating the further scientific development of the model.
In principle, COPERT has been developed for use from the National Experts to estimate emissions from road transport to be included in official annual national inventories. However, it is available and free for use in any other research, scientific and academic applications.
The COPERT 4 methodology is also part of the EMEP/CORINAIR Emission Inventory Guidebook. The Guidebook, developed by the UNECE Task Force on Emissions Inventories and Projections, is intended to support reporting under the UNECE Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution and the EU directive on national emission ceilings. The COPERT 4 methodology is fully consistent with the Road Transport chapter of the Guidebook.
The use of a software tool to calculate road transport emissions allows for a transparent and standardized, hence consistent and comparable data collecting and emissions reporting procedure, in accordance with the requirements of international conventions and protocols and EU legislation.

10. Why additional data are needed?
need to know more about fuel specific patterns:
gasoline vs. diesel driving patterns
electric vehicles
plug-in hybrids
as well as country specific patterns:
ownership rates: high vs. low
public transport: good vs. bad
congestion: high vs. low
New fuel as part of the low carbon strategy – electricity – in pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids.

11. Conclusions full support to proposal on vkm data collection
even more details needed for our modelling
Requested data will allow:
better air pollution emissions estimates
improved CO2/GHG emissions estimates
solid economic analysis
with time series: superior modal shift analysis

12. marek.sturc@ec.europa.eu http://ec.europa.eu/climateaction/
THANK YOU!

13. COPERT methodology
all major air pollutants: CO, NOX, VOC, PM, NH3, SO2, heavy metals
greenhouse gas emissions: CO2, N2O, CH4
Emissions from various sources:
thermally stabilized engine operation (hot emissions)
engine start from ambient temperature (cold-start and warming-up effects)
NMVOC emissions due to fuel evaporation
non-exhaust PM emissions from tyre and break wear
COPERT 4 estimates emissions of all major air pollutants (CO, NOx, VOC, PM, NH3, SO2, heavy metals) produced by different vehicle categories (passenger cars, light duty vehicles, heavy duty vehicles, mopeds and motorcycles) as well as greenhouse gas emissions (CO2, N2O, CH4).
The programme also provides speciation for NO/NO2, elemental carbon and organic matter of PM and non-methane VOCs, including PAHs and POPs.
Emissions estimated are distinguished in three sources: Emissions produced during thermally stabilized engine operation (hot emissions), emissions occurring during engine start from ambient temperature (cold-start and warming-up effects) and NMVOC emissions due to fuel evaporation. Non-exhaust PM emissions from tyre and break wear are also included. The total emissions are calculated as a product of activity data provided by the user and speed-dependent emission factors calculated by the software.