1. Aviation in Transition Challenges and Opportunities of Liberalisation The Future of Liberalisation Professor Ian Poll Director Cranfield College of Aeronautics

2. The Father of the Aeroplane
To fully understand the issues we beginning. In this respect this means examining the contribution of Sir George Cayley. Cayley was an influential person at the time of the industrial revolution. Cayley was not an abstract thinker
He was motivated by practical matters.
Sir George Cayley (1773 – 1857)

3. Why was Cayley interested in flight?
He recognised that the industrial revolution needed transportation to bring raw materials to the factories and to take the products to market.
He saw clearly that road, rail and sea were limited.
However transport by air would remove many of the limitations of the other modes and would bring huge economic benefits
He knew how important transport was and he recognised that to use air transport offered huge potential benefits.
It was this that led him to consider the issues surrounding flight.
He wanted Great Britain to be able to navigate and rule that ocean that reaches everyman’s door as well as those other oceans that she was already well in control of.

4. Issues
After 100 years there is now a clear divergence of civil and military aviation.
Civil aircraft are now treated as commodities – airframe is no longer a major target for research
Technology is now just as important on the ground as it is in the air

5. The Drivers “Cheaper, Safer and Cleaner” Economy Safety Security
Environment
“Cheaper, Safer and Cleaner”

6. Technology to reduce costs
Health and usage monitoring – only service the aircraft when absolutely necessary
New air traffic solutions – cut out waste
De-skilling piloting and ATM tasks – reduce cost of staff
Better use of IT to reduce cost of sales, links with supply chain etc
More efficient training methods

7. Technology to improve safety
Reduce piloting intervention – 80% of accidents involve human error
Use of virtual reality to overcome physical difficulties e.g. all round vision, poor weather visibility
ATM systems that separate aircraft rather than bunch them together
More effective training systems

8. Technology to improve security
Ability to screen for weapons and explosives
Internationally linked data bases for rapid identification of undesirable individuals
Designated “no go” areas built into flight control systems

9. Technology to protect the environment
Use of fuel cells to provide aircraft electrical power on the ground
Proper treatment of runoff water and better disposal of unpleasant substances both at the airport and in the manufacturing and disposal processes
Better multi-modal linking to reduce congestion

10. The real problem is at 35,000’
Growth rates of 5-6% will result in a 4 fold increase fuel burn in the next 25 years
Can anyone believe that this could (or should) be allowed to happen?

14. My conclusion is that aviation, as we know it today, is probably non- sustainable. What is the path for future development?

15. Is it this?

16. Or is it this?

17. Blended Wing Body

18. BWB versus Conventional
With fully turbulent flow L/D better by up to 30% (better than a conventional aircraft with a laminar flow wing)
Fuel burn per passenger seat mile up 25% (needs bigger engine)
With laminar flow BWB has an L/D 4 times larger than a conventional a/c)
These advantages are going to become hard to ignore

19. Conclusions
Technology has been used to solve many challenges over the past 50 years
Emerging technologies can solve many of today’s issues. They can help deliver the “new way” for aviation and they can produce new business opportunities for a liberalised industry
Most importantly, technology holds the key to the long term sustainability of civil aviation