1. An update based upon a presentation to the 2016 AMOS National Conference
Accuracy of Melbourne Forecasts 12-Month ‘Running’ Accumulated % Variance Explained (All Lead Times) To 30-Nov-2016
Maximum Temperature: A steady increase in accuracy over the past 50+ years (at Day 1 from 50% to 90%; for Days 2-4 from 35% to 75%; and, for Days 5-7 from 20% to 50%).
Day1-7: Based on BoM predictions.
Beyond Day-7: Based on GFS Model predictions.
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Rainfall Amount: Accuracy peaked during the very wet summer of when some extreme events were very well predicted.
Day 1-7: Based on BoM predictions.
Beyond Day-7: Based on GFS Model predictions.
BoM predictions of ‘0 mm’, when made with a PoP of at least 50%, result from ‘rounding off’ and are accordingly ‘adjusted’ : to 0.2 mm, when with a PoP of 50%, to 0.4mm, when with a PoP of greater than 50%.
Refer also to:
QJRMS Stern & Davidson (2015)