1. Trade, Tariffs, & the Ag Economy
May 12, 2018
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist 1 1

2. Net Farm Income
Source: USDA

3. Farm Debt
Source: Federal Reserve

4. Ag Economic Summary
Agricultural production and consumption has grown rapidly over the past several years.
But when production exceeds consumption, prices fall.
Crop revenues peaked in , while livestock revenues crested in , leading to record farm incomes.
Since then net farm income has been cut in half.
While the percentage loss in substantial, net farm income remains above levels from the early 2000’s.
Farmers and ranchers have partially compensated for the loss in income by taking on higher debt loads.
Farm and ranch balance sheets are eroding and financial stress is building for some producers, but the financial issues are not as severe as during the 1980’s.
If agricultural prices slowly improve (as projected), the squeeze on farm finances will improve as well. But for some producers, the squeeze may be too much.

5. Iowa’s Economy as an Example

6. Links to Manufacturing
Farm Machinery

7. Links to Government
Dept. of Ag.

8. Links to Real Estate
Farm Leases

9. Links to Finance and Insurance
Crop Insurance

10. Links to the Rest of the Economy

11. Why do U.S. farmers need export markets?
That’s where the customers are
That’s where the economic growth is
That’s where the consumption growth is
We produce surpluses
We only eat high on the hog
Exports are crucial to farm income

12. 96% of the world’s population lives outside the US
Source: CIA World Factbook

13. Population growth 2017 to 2050
Source: World Bank

14. Economic growth rates
Source: CIA World Factbook

17. Top ten US ag export markets, 2016
Source: US Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics, FATUS export aggregations

18. Top 10 ag exporting states, 2016
Source: USDA Economic Research Service, “State Export Data”

19. Beef Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

20. Pork Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

21. Sorghum Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

22. Soybean Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

23. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

24. Wheat Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

25. Rice Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

26. Cotton Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

27. Ethanol Exports
Source: EIA

28. Population vs. arable land
Share of global Share of global
population arable land
China 19% 5%
India 17% 10%
US 4% 13%

29. Arable land

30. Want to provide feedback on my presentation. https://www. surveymonkey

31. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: