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Industry Trends To Watch NASPD Conference February 16, 2018

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Presentation on theme: "Industry Trends To Watch NASPD Conference February 16, 2018"— Presentation transcript:

1 Industry Trends To Watch NASPD Conference February 16, 2018

2 Forward Looking Statements
This document contains forward-looking statements. These statements include financial forecasts and estimates as well as assumptions on which they are based, statements related to projects, objectives and expectations concerning future operations, products and services or future performance. Although Vallourec’s management believes that these forward-looking statements are reasonable, Vallourec cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness and these forward-looking statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties that are difficult to foresee and generally beyond Vallourec’s control, which may mean that actual results and developments may differ significantly from those expressed, induced or forecasted in the forward-looking statements. These risks include those developed or identified in the public documents filed by Vallourec with the AMF, including those listed in the “Risk Factors” section of the Registration Document filed with the AMF on 21 March 2017 (N° D ).

3 Seamless Pipe production
Introduction to Vallourec in the USA Leader in the steel pipe & tube industry Steel production Service & deliveries Seamless Pipe production Heat treatment VAM Premium threading Storage & inspection Long term commitment to the USA with main locations in Ohio, Texas, and Oklahoma Continued expansion and growth with $2B+ invested in last 10 years Broad product and service offering for OCTG, line pipe, industrial applications A company built on strong partnerships with our sister regions, industrial partners, and supply chain partners

4 RIG COUNT AND OCTG CONSUMPTION
Market Trend #1: O&G Volatility & Time Lags Large movement in key demand indicators RIG COUNT AND OIL PRICE WTI $/bbl Rigs Commodity prices, O&G activity, and pipe consumption all show short term volatility and long term instability How does this impact our industry? RIG COUNT AND OCTG CONSUMPTION ‘00 consumption tons Rigs Source: Vallourec Marketing, OCTG Situation Report, Preston Pipe & Tube Report, BakerHughes Rig Count

5 Excessive labor and inventory
Market Trend #1: Challenges of Volatility & Time Lags Risk of the bullwhip effect from a producer’s perspective Customer Inventory Owner Manufacturer 100 tons For consumption 200 + 50 just in case + 50 for price increases 400 + 100 just in case + 100 for raw materials delays +100 for increased lead times 300 tons Plenty of inventory available ?? Excessive labor and inventory MONTH 1 MONTH 2 MONTH 3 Bullwhip amplifies customer demand volatility the farther you move up the supply chain Is this theory or reality?

6 RIG COUNT AND OCTG CONSUMPTION OCTG SHIPMENTS AND INVENTORY
Market Trend #1: How Are We Doing? Consumption and shipments data shows the bullwhip effect in full force in the OCTG market RIG COUNT AND OCTG CONSUMPTION ‘00 consumption tons 3-4x 3-4x Rigs OCTG consumption peak is 3-4 times the trough while shipments peak is 8-10 times the trough Manufacturers challenged with ramping up & down at twice the scale of the market Industry objective: Find ways to reduce volatility rather than magnify it OCTG SHIPMENTS AND INVENTORY ‘00 shipments tons ‘000 inventory tons 8-10x 8-10x Source: Vallourec Marketing, OCTG Situation Report, Preston Pipe & Tube Report, BakerHughes Rig Count

7 Market Trend #1: How Can We Improve Stability & Reactivity?
MAIN CAUSES KEY MITIGATION Producer efforts Reduced lead times Small order batching Consistent deliveries Distributor efforts Forecasting transparency Awareness of impact when buying for price or long lead time imports Customer efforts Minimize cancellations and returns All partners Forecasting accuracy Encourage trust and communication up and down supply chain BULLWHIP CAUSES Long lead times/multiple intermediaries Order batching Insufficient demand forecasting Price fluctuations Lack of information sharing/inflated orders Vallourec production cycles reduced > 25%

8 Market Trend #2: End Users Expecting Efficiencies/Improvements Everyday improvements expected throughout the supply base (beyond price) E&P operators achieving huge gains in efficiency and productivity Improvements through trial and error, formal improvement programs (lean 6-Sigma), everyday savings Customer message: “We are doing our part, are you doing yours?” Do these opportunities exist in the tubulars supply chain? Source: Devon Energy January 2018 Investor Presentation

9 Market Trend #2: How Are We Doing
Market Trend #2: How Are We Doing? Evidence shows plenty of opportunities for waste reduction in OCTG industry supply chain Case # 1: Vallourec Value Stream Mapping Mapped all movements of product and information mill to rig Unnecessary pipe movements Unnecessary warranty expiration due to early ordering High inventory stored in high tax areas Under-optimized product routes Greater information sharing with distributor Reduce communication of associated services Smooth ordering and pickup Faster loading and unloading, to increase truck utilization 82% less Hour/Man working at the rig 55% less men exposed to buffer zone Reduce the amount of time pipe is touched on the rack Limit environment and employees exposure to chemicals Case # 2: Vallourec Service Diagnostic Followed pipe every step from production to rig Practices causing pipe scrap or repairs Trucks scheduling causing waiting charges Pipe lengths measured many times Rig safety risks on services done more safely in pipe yards The most important step to reducing waste is to recognize that it is there How do we systematically reduce this waste?

10 Market Trend #2: Where Do We Go From Here
Market Trend #2: Where Do We Go From Here? The industry pursues multiple tubulars supply chain business models Traditional model Direct model Partnership model

11 The Partnership Model How can it work?
Experts in all roles Continuous improvement Digital solutions Communication & trust “What we need to do is learn to work in the system, by which I mean that everybody…is there not for individual competitive profit or recognition, but for contribution to the system as a whole on a win-win basis” – W. Edwards Deming

12 Thank you


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