1. Voting Behaviour
March 5, 2007

2. How do people decide who to vote for?
Prospective Model (Michigan)
Party identification
Candidate characteristics
Issue positions
Retrospective Model
Evaluation of the past

3. Party Identification
“Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, and Independent, or what?”
Persons who call themselves Republicans or Democrats are then asked: “Would you call yourself a strong (Republican, Democrat) or a not very strong (Republican, Democrat).
Persons who call themselves Independents, answer “no preference,” or name another party are asked : “Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican or to the Democratic party?”

4. Distribution of Partisans (in the US)

5. Trends in Party id in Britain

6. Trends in Strength of Party id

7. Ideology and Partisanship

8. Functions of Party Identification
Helps you organize and categorize information
Perceptual Screen
Helps you make value judgments. Is George Bush competent? Could Bill Clinton be trusted?
Influence Political Behavior
Persons who are party identifiers are more interested in politics, more concerned about who wins the election, and more likely to vote.
party id is the most important determinant of the way people vote

9. Influence of Party Id

10. Influence of Party Id on Vote

11. Dynamics of 2000 Presidential Campaign
Source: Johnston and Hagen (APSA 2003) “Priming and Learning: Evidence from the 2000 Annenberg Study”

12. Character

13. Perception of Gore’s Honesty

14. Traits of Candidates

15. Leadership Evaluations in Britain

16. Trends in British Campaigns
See: Rolling Cross Section Study in 2001 BES

17. Requirements for Issue Voting
Aware of the issue
Care about the issue
Perceive difference between the candidates
Correct about the difference

18. Criteria for Issue Voting

20. Retrospective Voting Party identification Evaluation of the past
economic indicators, “It’s the economy, stupid”
Wars
Incumbency