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workers’ qualification

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Presentation on theme: "workers’ qualification"— Presentation transcript:

1 workers’ qualification
financial markets exchange rates price level interest rates goods markets economy sales expectations labor markets labor costs workers’ qualification company as a system technology innovations know-how government financial policy laws and regulations foreign countries Competing on: location innovation gov. policies prices In Folien generell alles groß schreiben, bis auf Konjunktionen und Artikel

2 economic schools of thaught
goals of economic policy economic agents partners of wage agreement wage policy government fiscal policy central bank monetary policy application of instruments to achieve goals discretionary (occasional control) regulation bound (active, passive) automatic effect of instruments

3 creation of appropriate conditions for market dynamics
supply-side long-term demand-side short-term characteristics theoretical basis (Neo)Classical Keynesianism creation of appropriate conditions for market dynamics (stability of private sector) active stabilization policy to compensate instability of private sector government view steady, regulation bound growth policy anti-cyclical discretionary stabilization policy strategy real GDP growth real GDP trend time time

4 net exports (exports - imports)
unemployment rate in % 1995: 8,8 2000: 9,3 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 net exports (exports - imports) in % of GDP 2 growth of real GDP in % 1 1 2 3 4 5 1995: 0,6 2000: 1,9 1995: 1,7 2000: 3,0 1 2 3 4 5 year 2000 year 1995 inflation rate in % (consumer prices) 1995: 1,9 2000: 1,4

5 Level of goals contents macroeconomic level meso-economic level
price stability high employment appropriate economic growth foreign trade equilibrium fair distribution of income and property environmental protection balanced budget macroeconomic level meso-economic level (structural goals) balancing of regional wages efficient supply of energy reduction of subsidies freedom of decision-making for companies and private households freedom of contract competition microeconomic level continued, non-inflationary and ecologically sustainable growth high employment level high level and stable social net increase in quality of life convergence of economic output among member states European level

6 indicator (measurable)
objective projection objective indicator (measurable) result difference change of cost-of-living-index or of harmonized consumer price index in % stability of price level < 2% appropriate, continuous growth growth of real GDP in % 2-3% high employment level unemployment rate in % < 10% foreign trade equilibrium part of exports and imports balance in % of GDP 1,5-2% current budget deficit in % of GDP stable gov. financing: „Budget criteria“ of the Maastricht Treaty < 3% current government debt in % of GDP < 60% growth of wages in % < 2% „fair“ income distribution growth of profit in % < 3%

7 “gap analysis” (comparison of target/actual values)
time “gap analysis” (comparison of target/actual values) no need for action retaining of previous economic policy need for action cause analysis choice and application of instruments evaluation of effects of applied instruments

8 late indicators early indicators present indicators
retail sales production investment consumption capacity utilisation wages prices unemployment late indicators business climate consumption climate order inflows building permissions orders share prices profit expectations income expectations early indicators present indicators - 9 - 6 - 3 3 6 months

9 population (electorate)
central bank (autonomous) government national (Federal Government and the Länder) European (Council of Ministers) national European parties, parliament associations bureaucracies ministries EU-Commission unions and management population (electorate)

10 differentiation criteria examples
scope for decision-making big discretionary, occasionally small bound by rules none automatism command medium inducement voting arranging qualitative quantitative production prohibition, production commandment changes in taxes and interest rates obligations of intervention in the EMS II sanctions of the Stability Pact wage negotiations reduction of bureaucratic restraints changes in taxes and interest rates in discretion due to progressive taxation - automatic loss of taxes in recession - automatic surplus of taxes in boom intensitiy of governm. intervention

11 ECB Council (supreme committee of decision of ESCB)
directorate president vice president four other members nomination by EU Council of governments heads single period of 8 years, re-election not possible administration of current transactions extended by Non-EMU members GB DK CH ECB Council (supreme committee of decision of ESCB) D GR F I A FIN E IRL P B L NL In Folien generell alles groß schreiben, bis auf Konjunktionen und Artikel presidents of national central banks from the current twelve member states of the EMU nomination in national procedure period 5 years, re-election possible

12 M P U M3 = 4.5% < 2% Y = 2 to 2.5% = - 0.5 to -1%
n U reference value for 1 year M3 = 4.5% stable development of prices potential growth of real GDP change of velocity of money circulation < 2% Y r = 2 to 2.5% = to -1% > 4,5%, If inflationary risk will be signalled due to the forerun character of money supply result In-depth analysis of causes if necessary application of instruments of monetary policy

13 fiscal policy built-in flexibility Re-distribution stabilisation
allocation anti-cyclical cycle-independent discretionary rule bound built-in flexibility

14 minister of social affairs and labour
department objective (examples) allocation distribution stabilization fiscal objectives minister of finance superior: improvement of production conditions of location Germany safeguarding competitive environment sustained economic growth minister of economics reduction of unemployment financing of social security systems (e.g. pension funds) minister of social affairs and labour

15 criteria of Maastricht
GDP growth trend business cycle time budget - time + budget deficit in recession; limited by Art. 115 Constitution and criteria of Maastricht budget surpluses in boom

16 tax policy stabilization distribution allocation
influencing of economic situation and growth (fiscal policy) distribution correction of income and property distribution allocation influencing the use of factors of production and the consumption of goods & services

17 income tax burden in % 50 48,5% 42% 40 marginal tax burden tariff 2002 tariff 2005 30 20 19,9% average tax burden 15% 10 taxable income in EUR 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60

18 government consumption expenditures (expenditure concept)
example 1999 figures in billion EUR government expenditure 941 1 wide analysis = 0,4863 = 48,63% GDP (nominal) 1.935 government consumption expenditures 2 tight analysis (expenditure concept) 369 = 0,1906 = 19,06% GDP 1.935 3 tight analysis (consumer concept) collective consumption 154 = 0,0795 = 7,95% GDP 1.935 Ad 1 inclusive monetary transfers of social security, attributable property transfers 2 without monetary transfers of social security 3 without direct attributable property transfers of government to private households

19 government fixed capital formation (+)
government deficit, loan-financed (+) gross domestic product, nominal (+) government fixed capital formation (+) interest rate (+) price level (+) money market effect negative effect on other Components of aggregate demand

20 interest payment burden ratio
net borrowing = revenues - expenditures (of one financial year) net borrowing of government GDP (nominal) deficit ratio = total government debt debt ratio = GDP (nominal) total government debt debt per capita = population interest payment of government debt interest payment burden ratio = GDP (nominal) or government expenditure

21 net govern- ment borrowing
bill. EUR expen- ditures 257 253 5 250 10 net govern- ment borrowing budget surplus 15 21 247 revenues 238 229 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

22 objective trade unions employers
autonomous partners in wage negotiations objective high wage increases to improve income distribution position of employees, depending on national economic labor market situation: wage restraint where necessary, if jobs are created in return trade unions low wage increases; high net profits and flexible labor market regulations, which give scope for investment and meet the companies‘ needs employers

23 compensation of employees
private households companies employers‘ contribution to social security employees‘ contribution to social security compensation of employees gross wages taxes disposable income net wages prices real disposable income

24 output-related wages policy
key figures initial position 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. production result working hours productivity of labor (1:2) wages per hour sum of wages (2x4) unit labor costs (5:1) material costs/unit other costs/unit costs/unit (6+7+8) selling price revenue (10x1) costs (9x1) profit (11–12) profit/sum of wages (13:5) 4.000 1.000 4 16 16.000 25 10 39 40 0,25 EUR 4.200 1.000 4,2 16,8 16.800 4 25 10 39 40 0,25 EUR (+ 5%) results: a) No cost push from wage increases and hence no price increase b) increase of productivity will be equally distributed on labor and capital (5%) c) income distribution (profit/sum of wages ) remains unchanged

25 feedback if missing of goal is persistent
recognition lag effect lag decision lag realization lag information diagnosis cause starting development time internal lag external lag


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