1. Fire Bullets, Then Cannonballs
Group 6
Justin Shamp
Ryan Moeller
Tate Roueche
Stuart Gaston
Michael Grizzle
Rachel Camunez

2. Fanatic Discipline
Level 5
Ambition
Productive Paranoia
Empirical Creativity
“You may not find what you were looking for, but you find something else equally important.”
-Robert Noyce

3. A Big Surprise PSA vs. Southwest Airlines Genentech vs. Amgen
More important factors than innovation?
“One fad behind”

4. Threshold Innovation
Each environment has a level of threshold innovation
Primary Innovation Dimension
Innovation Threshold
Industry
New drug development, scientific discoveries, breakthroughs
Biotechnology
High
New service features, new business models and practices
Airlines
Low

5. Creativity And Discipline
Advanced Memory Systems vs. Intel
Not about being first to market, but being prepared when you decide to enter
“Intel Delivers” rather than “Intel Innovates”
Blend creative intensity with relentless discipline

6. Bullets, Then Cannonballs
Not putting all your gun powder into one cannonball
Shoot small bullets till you hit target, then put all gunpowder into same line of sight for big hit

7. What Makes A Bullet? A bullet is low cost A bullet is low risk
The size of the bullet grows as the enterprise grows
A bullet is low risk
Low risk doesn’t mean high probability of success but rather minimal consequences if the bullet goes awry or hits nothing
A bullet is low distraction
Meaning low distraction for the overall enterprise; it might be very high distraction for one or few individuals

8. Fire Bullets, Then Cannonballs
Approach to principle:
Fire Bullets
Assess: Did your bullets hit anything?
Consider: Do any of your successful bullets merit conversation to a big cannonball?
Convert: Concentrate resources and fire a cannonball once calibrated
Don’t fire uncalibrated cannonballs
Terminate bullets that show no evidence of eventual success

9. Calibrated vs. Uncalibrated
Calibrated bullets
Has confirmation based on actual experience, empirical validation, that a big bet will likely prove successful
Uncalibrated bullets
A cannonball fired before you gain empirical validation
Danger of firing multiple uncalibrated bullets
PSA

10. Learning from follies
Difference between 10Xers and Comparison Companies
10Xers view mistakes as expensive tuition: better get something out of it, apply the learning, and don’t repeat
Underlying Principle: Empirical Validation
Figure out what works in practice and do it better than everyone else

11. Predictive Genius or Empirical Validation?
Bill Gates
IBM vs. Microsoft operating systems
Fired bullets at both so he would have a good outcome either way
Launched cannonball at MS-DOS and made it big
10Xers aren’t visionary geniuses; they’re empiricists

12. Conclusion Fire bullets, then cannonball approach
Failure to fire cannonballs, once calibrated, leads to mediocre results
Marry relentless discipline with creativity