1. Global Estimate of Hepatitis B and Hepatitis Delta
D. Razavi-Shearer-Spink
April 13, 2016

2. Methodology
Reviewed 40,000 articles/posters/MOH reports/grey literature
Found reported HBsAg+ prevalence estimates for 127 countries (95% of total world’s population) – Est. 385 million HBsAg+ (5.2% prevalence) without adjusting for time of study and impact of vaccination in 2016

3. Less than 15% of the total HBV infected population are estimated using extrapolation
100%
in 17 countries recent estimates were used as reported In 89 countries estimates were modeled and adjusted for the impact of vaccination and horizontal transmission not country validated
With Published Prevalence Studies

4. HBV estimates based on models or recent data
HBsAg+
(Prevalence)
<1%
1%-2.5%
2.5%-5.0%
5.0%-10.0%
>10%
Total Infected
1 million
10 million
100 million .
Source: Polaris Observatory (

5. An estimated 310 million (250 million – 397 million) individuals are HBsAg+ with an overall prevalence of 4.2% (3.3%-5.4%) in 2016
HBsAg+
(Prevalence)
<1%
1%-2.5%
2.5%-5.0%
5.0%-10.0%
>10%
Total Infected
1 million
10 million
100 million .
Source: Polaris Observatory (

6. 10 countries account for 70% of all HBV infections globally
Source: Polaris Observatory (

7. HBeAg: Globally it is estimated that 30% (24%-39%) of the HBsAg+ population is HBeAg+ in 2016
HBeAg+ Prevalence
(of HBsAg+)
<2.5%
2.5%-5.0%
5.0%-10.0%
10.0%-20.0%
>20%
Data was available for 51 countries representing 69% of the world’s population
Source: Polaris Observatory (

8. HDV: Globally it is estimated that 8% (6. 6%-10
HDV: Globally it is estimated that 8% (6.6%-10.5%) of the HBsAg+ population is anti-HDV+ in 2016
Anti-HDV+ Prevalence
(of HBsAg+)
<2.5%
2.5%-5.0%
5.0%-10.0%
10.0%-20.0%
>20%
Data was available in 71 countries representing 74% of the world’s population
Source: Polaris Observatory (

9. Conclusions
An estimated 310 million (250 million – 397 million) individuals are HBsAg+ with an overall prevalence of 4.2% (3.3%-5.4%) in 2016
Only 10 countries account for 70% of the global infected population
Globally it is estimated that 30% (24%-39%) of the HBsAg+ population is HBeAg+ in 2016
Globally it is estimated that 8% (6.6%-10.5%) of the HBsAg+ population is anti-HDV+ in 2016